• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.205-230
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• 2021

This study examines the impact of the number of coronavirus cases on regime-switching in stock return volatility. This study documents the empirical evidence that the COVID-19 cases had an asymmetric effect on the regime of stock return volatility. When the stock return is in the low volatility regime, the probability of switching to the high volatility regime in the next trading day increases as the number of cumulative cases increases. In contrast, in the high volatility regime, the effect of cumulative cases on the transition probability is not statistically significant. This study also documents the evidence that the government measures against the pandemic contribute to promoting the high volatility regime of the KOSPI during the pandemic. Besides, this study projects future stock prices through the Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated parameters and the predicted number of the COVID-19 new cases. Under a scenario where the number of new cases rapidly increases, stock price indices in Korea are expected to be in a downward trend over the next three months. On the other hand, under the moderate scenario and the best scenario, the stock indices are likely to continue to rise.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.27-53
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• 2019

I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China's tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.441-468
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• 2020

Capital inflows have a strong presence that influences destination countries' development of institutions, which can in turn help resuscitate a stopped economy and re-attract capital that was lost during crises such as the recent public health crisis. While the previous literature emphasizes the mechanism that foreign investors press or even threaten the local government for change, this paper explores empirically whether institutional improvement can be achieved through the channel that host countries voluntarily reform institutions in anticipation of potential investments predicted by the exogenous geographical and cultural characteristics of the recipient countries. Given that countries with better institutional quality can accumulate larger FDI stocks, we still find that the need for more FDI, in contrast to FPI and debt, gives higher incentives to host countries to strategically improve their institutions before seeking capital overseas. Moreover, the predicted FDI exerts more prominent impacts on institutions on constraining elite than those involved in launching a business, enforcing contracts, and protecting properties. The results imply that a long-run plan for upgrading elite constraint institutions is crucial for a post-pandemic FDI reboot.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.33-71
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• 2021

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EU-South Korea agreement, which is the first 'second-generation' FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.313-336
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• 2020

In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China's rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a role previously occupied by the East Asian Tigers, the world may again be on the cusp of significant change in where labor-intensive goods are produced. China's prowess in these sectors peaked in the early 2010s; its share in their global exports, while still substantial, is now in decline. Mechanisms through which the global economy may adjust to China's graduation into more technologically sophisticated activities include expanded labor-intensive export production in other emerging economies and labor-saving technological change in products currently heavily reliant on less-educated labor. Available evidence suggests that the first mechanism is operating slowly and the second hardly at all. As a third mechanism, China may in part replace itself by moving labor-heavy factories out of densely populated and expensive coastal cities and into the country's interior. Such a transition, though still in its infancy, would mirror the decentralization of manufacturing production in the U.S. and Europe, which occurred after World War II.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-25
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• 2022

East Asia's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force in 2022 as the world's largest free trade agreement. RCEP was concluded, signed and brought into force in the face of major international uncertainty and is a significant boost to the global trading system. RCEP brings Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand into the same agreement with the ten member ASEAN group at its centre. It keeps markets open and updates trade and investment rules in East Asia, a major centre of global economic activity, at a time of rising protectionism when the WTO itself is under threat. The agreement builds on ASEAN's free trade agreements and strengthens ASEAN centrality. One of the pillars of RCEP is an economic cooperation agenda which has its antecedents in ASEAN's approach to bringing along its least developed members and builds on the experience of capacity building in APEC and technical cooperation under the ASEAN Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. There is an opportunity to create a framework that facilitates deeper economic cooperation that involves experience-sharing, extending RCEP's rules and membership at the same time as strengthening political cooperation. The paper suggests some areas that might be best suited to cooperation - that is confidence and trust building instead of or before negotiation - and discusses how non-members may be engaged and the membership expanded. Options such as multilateralising provisions and becoming a platform for policy convergence and coordinating unilateral reforms are canvassed.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.227-253
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• 2022

Despite the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs), many exporting firms are still confronted with several challenges in utilizing the FTA preferential tariffs. Based on the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, this study empirically examines the factors affecting the utilization of FTA schemes by exporting firms. To clarify the key factors influencing FTA utilization, this study develops a conceptual model from the perspective of the adoption of information technology innovations. Eight factors derived from the TOE framework are proposed to explore the determinants of FTA utilization in export. Partial least squares structural equation modeling is employed to analyze the data collected from 162 exporting small- and medium-sized enterprises in the South Korean textile industry. The findings reveal that compatibility and trading partner influence are positively associated with FTA utilization, while complexity is negatively related. Factors of organizational context do not show any relationship with FTA utilization. This study is the first to theoretically analyze and empirically test the determinants of FTA utilization from the perspective of technological innovation adoptions. By examining the relative importance of TOE factors in the utilization of FTA schemes, this study expects to advance a holistic understanding on the perceived factors that could potentially affect the utilization of FTA schemes.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.205-225
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• 2022

Different types of corporate ownership may affect the environment among firms and could influence the decisions of new entities in the region. This study determines the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in hindering new foreign manufacturing firms in the Yangtze River delta (YRD). The negative binomial regression is used for city-sector level data and the following points summarize the results: Firstly, the unique privileges that SOEs enjoy alongside governmental support create difficulties for foreign firms trying to establish themselves near existing SOEs. Secondly, although core cities are more attractive to foreign firms than peripheral cities, the role of core-periphery reveals that, in spite of all the regional advantages core cities could offer, whenever the share of SOEs is higher, the core-periphery system will have an adverse impact on new foreign firms. In other words, government preference for SOEs can suppress the attraction of foreign start-ups. However, after 2008, the governmental authorities finally succeeded in implementing their promising policy of fair treatment and competition in only the core cities.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.119-142
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• 2022

This paper uses social network theory and the internationalization process model (IPM) to determine how external network linkages influence the location choices of multinational enterprise from emerging economies (EMNEs); specifically, whether past alliance experience influences location choices and its impact on the subsequent entry of MNEs from emerging economies. This paper applies survival analysis using initial and secondary investments from 2,000 Chinese A-share listed companies that entered 90 countries between 1997 and 2018 to analyze both the initial and subsequent entries of Chinese outward foreign direct investments (OFDIs) in major host countries. The findings indicate that an MNE's previous experience with a company from a particular country will increase the likelihood of an initial investment in that country. Previous alliance experience may accelerate the foreign investment process of EMNE and stimulate firms making a commitment to a position in a foreign network, regardless of cultural distance and stage of internationalization. Alliance before initial investment may increase the likelihood and speed of entering a host country as wholly owned subsidiaries and that network linkages not only significantly influence the internationalization process of small and medium-sized enterprises, as indicated by the IPM, but also that of large listed firms.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.179-204
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• 2022

This study examines the extent to which policy-based loans to SME exporters affect their export performance (the intensive margin of exports). We also investigate the heterogeneous export effects of policy-based loans that may depend on firm- and industry-specific characteristics, such as credit ratings, debt-to-assets ratios, firm size and age. To do so, we conduct a survey, of 1,000 Korean SMEs, that collect information on firm-level exports and policy-based loans. The main empirical findings strongly support that SMEs that receive policy-based loans tend to increase their export volumes. However, these loans' positive impact on exports are only valid for SME exporters with credit scores of 12 or greater (that is, SMEs that have difficulty accessing the external financial market). The estimation results with respect to SMEs' dependence on external financing imply that policy-based loans for SMEs in sectors that are heavily dependent on external finance are effective in that they are instrumental in increasing these firms' exports. These empirical findings emphasize the importance of the external financial market to SME exporters who face various up-front investments that are related to their exporting activities.