• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.365-390
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• 2016

This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

• 정보관리연구
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.1-32
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• 1996

1990년대에 들어오면서 도서관에 데이터베이스 온라인탐색 및 CD-ROM탐색이 보편화되고 이러한 뉴미디어들은 이용자의 편의성 면에서, 도서관 경영적인 측면에서, 또는 소장공간의 효율적인 측면에서 볼 때 기존의 책자형 자료보다 도입효과가 있을 것으로 기대된다. 그러나 새로운 자료를 도입하거나, 시스템을 설계할 때 비용 대 효과를 객관적으로 평가하여야 하고, 구체적인 평가지침에 근거하여 일관성 있는 장서구성을 하여야 하므로 본 연구에서는 대외경제정책연구원 정보자료실을 모델로 하여 기존문헌, CD-ROM, 온라인탐색을 비교 평가하고자 한다.

• 월간피드저널
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• 제4권8호통권36호
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• pp.73-77
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• 2006

농업ㆍ농촌이 우리에게 어떤 의미를 지니는가. 흔히 산업의 한 분야로 분류되지만, 문명과 함께 태동해 자연과 소통하며 이루어내는 인류의 끝없는 도전, 생명과 직결되는 분야기에 더 많은 관심을 요구한다면 지나친 편애일까. '농업ㆍ농촌이 무엇인가'라는 근본적인 질문을 던져보는 행사가 펼쳐져 농축산계의 관심이 모아지고 있다. 농촌진흥청은 오는 8월 30일 부터 9월 3일까지 5일간 청내에서 농업관련 기관과 단체 및 학계 등이 공동으로 참여하는 '한국농업 근현대화 100년 기념사업'을 개최한다. 특히 오랜 농민단체 생활을 통해 농정 관련 현장 경험이 풍브, 지난 2월 농축산계의 뜨거운 관심 속에 부임한 김인식 농촌진흥청장은 "이번 사업을 우리 농업과 농촌이 재도약할 수 있는 발판을 다지는 계기로 삼을 것"이라는 포부를 밝혔다. 김 청장은 경상대학교 축산학과를 졸업한 1992년부터 전국농민단체협의회 사무총장. 한국낙농육우협회 전무, WTO 국민연대 사무총장에 이어 정책실장실 농어촌 비서관 등을 역임, 효율적인 대외협상과 함께 농진청의 농업연구와 지도사업에 새로운 방향을 제시할 것으로 기대되고 있다. FTA, DDA협상 등 개방화의 물결 속에 농촌이 어느 때보다 어려움을 겪고 있는 시점에 피드저널 유동준 발행인 겸 편집인은 7월12일 농촌진흥청 청장실에서 김 청장을 만나 '한국농업 근현대화 100년 기념사업 추진 방향과 농어축산업 발전'을 주제로 대담을 나눴다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.277-299
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• 2014

Climate negotiations have been going on for the last two decades and the awareness for impacts of climate change has improved substantially. However, the trends of global $CO_2$ emissions did not reveal any encouraging signs, with developing countries emitting even more $CO_2$ and industrialized nations showing no signs of reducing emissions to below their 1990 levels. In order to meet the ambitious targets set by the Stern report for the next two decades, it is important to find new and path-breaking approaches to climate change. This paper attempts to analyze the use of carbon/development space historically, at present and in the future with a focus on equity. Trends analysis focuses on the last two decades (Post Rio) and the carbon budget based analysis considers a period of 1850-2050. Industrialized countries are found to have significantly overshot their budgeted allocation for the last 160 years. Both the developing and industrialized countries are overshooting the present budget estimates based on world per capita budget for the next forty years and proportional to the population of each country. It is important for the industrialized countries to bring down their emissions to meet their carbon budgets while the developing countries use their development space as a guideline for their development path. Furthermore, this paper presents aggressive and regressive scenarios for the industrialized countries to compensate for the climate debt they have created.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2017년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.371-372
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• 2017

미국은 냉전시대부터 미사일방어체계를 구축해왔으나, 냉전시대 종식 이후 국제 정세와 위협 세력에 많은 변화가 있었다. 미국과 소련으로 양분되어있던 힘의 세력이 중국의 대외적 영향력 확장 의지, 강한 러시아의 표방, 북한과 이란의 핵 무장 및 탄도미사일 기술 고도화 등으로 인해 대응해야 할 위협이 다양해졌다. 이러한 위협 변화에 대해 미사일방어청(Missile Defense Agency : MDA)은 전략 및 정책을 수립하였으나, 이의 근간인 상위법은 개정되지 않다가 2017년 국방수권법(FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act : FY2017 NDAA)에 변화된 미국의 미사일방어 전략이 명문화되었다. 본 논문에서는 FY2017 NDAA에 반영된 미국의 탄도미사일방어 전략을 확인하고, 기존의 전략에서 어떤 부분이 변화하였는지 비교하였다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.55-73
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• 2018

The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The global crisis, as well as the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by developing Asian countries at that time, give some clues to this important issue. The region weathered the global crisis well and experienced a robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by Asian governments played a key role in the region's recovery. The central objective of this paper is to empirically test this wisdom by using cross-country panel data. Our main finding is that the stimulus has had a limited but positive impact on developing Asia's output during the global crisis. This lends some support to the notion that countercyclical fiscal policy can help the region cope with severe external shocks. The broader, more fundamental implication for regional policymakers is that the region's long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline can yield significant benefits beyond macroeconomic stability. An important consequence of this commitment - relatively healthy fiscal balance sheets - enabled the region's governments to quickly and decisively embark upon fiscal stimulus programs.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.447-467
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• 2016

The RTAs with trade facilitation provisions have been expected to generate a larger net trade-creating effect and complement the discriminatory feature of RTAs but have yet to be empirically proven. Recognizing the limitations of existing studies, we conducted a quantitative analysis on the effects of RTAs with and without trade facilitation provisions on both intra- and extra-bloc trade by using a modified gravity equation. We applied the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation with time varying exporter and importer fixed effect method to panel data consisting of 45,770 country pairs covering 170 countries for 2000-2010. We found that the trade facilitation provisions in existing RTAs are non-discriminatory by generating more intra- and extra-bloc trade in general. In particular, we found that the trade effects of RTAs in the APEC region are much stronger than the general case covering all RTAs in the world. In addition, as we control the trade effect of a country's trade facilitation, which is ranked by the World Bank's logistic performance index, RTAs consisting of trade facilitation provisions are discriminatory for trade in final goods and non-discriminatory for trade in intermediate goods. Overall, we endeavor to "explain," instead of "hypothesizing," why most of the recent RTAs contain trade facilitation provisions, especially in light of the deepening regional interdependence through trade in parts and components under global value chains and support the necessity of multilateralizing RTAs by implementing non-discriminatory trade facilitation provisions.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.469-491
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• 2016

In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the socalled "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.3-27
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• 2017

This paper studied the effects of anti-dumping measures on the imports to investigate whether the trade restriction effect of an anti-dumping duty is dominant. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in the anti-dumping duties decreases the import of the targeted product by about 0.43~0.51%. The actual statistics, however, show that the total import of the targeted products increased by about 30 percent while an anti-dumping duty was in force. That indicates that an anti-dumping duty is just a temporary import relief. This paper also investigated whether an anti-dumping duty is terminated in the case that the injury would not be likely to continue or recur if the duty were removed. The hazards model estimates show that increase in market share, MFN tariff rate, and dumping margin decrease the hazard of termination of an anti-dumping duty, but the increase in value added increases the hazard of termination. Generally speaking, this result indicates that the WTO member countries have regulated the overuse of an anti-dumping measure. The findings of this paper show that there is a country- and industry-wise heterogeneous characteristic in the effect as well as termination of an anti-dumping duty.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.177-215
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• 2018

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.