• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.337-370
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• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.371-400
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• 2018

Although asset price is an important factor in determining changes in external balances, no studies have investigated it from the Chinese perspective. In this study, I empirically examine the underlying driving forces of China's trade balances, particularly the role of asset price and the real exchange rate. To this end, I estimate a sign-restricted structural vector autoregressive model with quarterly time series data for China, using the Bayesian method. The results show that changes in asset price affect China's trade balances through private consumption and investment. Also, an appreciation of the real exchange rate tends to deteriorate trade balances in China. Furthermore, forecast error variance decomposition results indicate that changes in asset price (stock price and housing price) explain about 20% variability of trade balances, while changes in the real exchange rate can explain about 10%.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.307-336
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• 2018

This paper proposes a monetary aggregate "Liquidity" that could serve as a useful indicator for gauging the appropriateness of monetary policy. If liquidity rises above a certain threshold, it is signaling that monetary policy is losing traction due to structural and other impediments even when the inflation gap remains open. This indicator supplements the financial cycle approach but adds value by providing a benchmark that is derived from the national account, and not based on its own trend. Over the last two decades, each time this measure rose above the threshold range, it was followed by a decline in GDP growth. The latter was greater when accompanied by a high physical asset value to GDP, e.g., an elevated property market.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.333-351
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• 2019

We use a data-mining bootstrap procedure to investigate the predictability test in the eight Asia-Pacific regional stock markets using in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting models. We address ourselves to the data-mining bias issues by using the data-mining bootstrap procedure proposed by Inoue and Kilian and applied to the US stock market data by Rapach and Wohar. The empirical findings show that stock returns are predictable not only in-sample but out-of-sample in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Korea with a few exceptions for some forecasting horizons. However, we find some significant disparity between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in the Korean stock market. For Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, stock returns have predictable components both in-sample and out-of-sample. For the US, Australia, and Canada, we do not find any evidence of return predictability in-sample and out-of-sample with a few exceptions. For Japan, stock returns have a predictable component with price-earnings ratio as a forecasting variable for some out-of-sample forecasting horizons.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.409-427
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• 2019

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

• 월간 기계설비
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• s.51
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• pp.62-68
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• 1994

최근 우리 건설업계는 UR타결의 영향등으로 세계 경제의 개발화와 국제화가 급속히 진전됨에 따라 대내적으로는 우루과이라운드가 발효되는 95년부터 국내건설시장의 개방으로 외국업체의 시장잠식 및 우리 업체와의 치열한 수주경쟁이 예상되며, 대외적으로 세계 양대 건설시장인 미국과 일본을 포함한 선진국시장이 개방되는 등 건설서비스 교역자유화가 구체적으로 실현되고 있다. 우리 업계는 이처럼 급변하는 세계건설시장의 환경변화에 능동적이고 효율적으로 대처하기 위하여 국내건설업 제도의 정비와 국제경쟁력강화, 해외시장 진출 다변화 등 해결해야 할 많은 과제에 직면하고 있는데 해외건설협회에서는 UR건설서비스 타결 결과에 대한 전반적인 이해를 도모하고 특히 세계 주요 건설시장의 진입장벽 및 규제를 조사, 분석함으로써 수주전략수립 및 해외진출확대에 기여하고자 $\ulcorner$시계건설시장의 진입장벽과 대응방안$\lrcorner$ 이라는 보고서를 발간했다. 본고는 해외건설협회에서 발간한 $\ulcorner$시계건설시장의 진입장벽과 대응방안$\lrcorner$의 내용을 발췌, 정리한 것이다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.417-444
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• 2013

This paper aims to empirically identify the effects of FTAs on outward and inward FDIs in Korea. Considering the income differences between Korea and its FTA partners, we hypothesize that FTAs have a positive effect on outward FDI to developing countries and inward FDI from developed countries. An underlying source of the hypothesis is the Knowledge-Capital model, addressing the positive (negative) relationship between trade costs and horizontal (vertical) FDI. We test for the hypothesis using data on Korea's FTAs and FDI over the period 2000-2010. We find that our empirical results support the hypothesis, and additionally, FTAs in general encourage FDI by creating an FDI-friendly environment.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.385-415
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• 2013

Inter-regional free trade agreements (FTAs) - notably between Asia and Latin America - are growing in numbers and complexity. There is an absence of an agreed methodology for empirical assessments on the content of FTAs and little research. This paper proposes a framework to assess liberalization in FTAs in goods and services and new trade policy issues relating to regulatory barriers. Next, it applies this framework to studying the 22 Asia-Latin America FTAs in existence. The findings suggest that Asia-Latin American FTAs have laid the foundations for inter-regional integration by liberalizing the trade in goods and services and reducing some regulatory barriers. Deepening FTAs and adopting structural reforms will enhance Asia-Latin American integration in the future.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.333-359
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• 2013

Two mega-regional negotiations are changing the landscape of Asia Pacific trade policy: an Asian track centered on ASEAN (the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP), and a Trans-Pacific track centered on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among 12 economies, including the United States, which Korea is expected to join. Modeling results suggest that both would generate substantial benefits for Korea and the global economy. From Korea's viewpoint, the agreements would establish new FTAs with China, Japan and smaller economies, improve the utilization of FTAs by permitting the regional cumulation of inputs, and help to upgrade some Korean FTAs to more rigorous standards. By participating in these agreements, Korea could also help to guide them toward inclusive, high-quality regional outcomes. As one of the region's most open and agile economies, Korea has a large stake in regional integration and would be well advised to pursue both tracks.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.295-315
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• 2017

This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.