• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다항회귀모형

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Multiple Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Among Older Adults (노년기 우울의 다중변화궤적에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Eun-Na;Choi, Jae-sung
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.387-407
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to identify the multiple trajectories of depressive symptoms and the characteristics of each trajectory group among the elderly. This study uses five waves of longitudinal data from the Korean Welfare Panel Study (KWPS, 2006-2010). Subjects were older adults aged 60 and over who had completed at least three waves between 2006 and 2010. A total of 4,181 respondents were analyzed. The latent growth mixture model and the multiple logistic regression model were mainly used for data analysis. The major findings were as follows: After controlling for the variables of gender, age, education, marital status, self-assessed health, and poverty, this study identified four different trajectory classes: stable low depressive symptoms (71.8%), high but decreased depressive symptoms (10.6%), moderate but increased depressive symptoms (7.9%), and an increased, then a decreased pattern of depressive symptoms (9.7%). The characteristics of theses trajectories as compared to previous studies were a lower percentage of 'stable low depressive symptoms', no 'persistently high depressive symptoms', and higher level of depressive symptoms. Also, the elderly in the stable low trajectory group had better health status, higher self-esteem and a good relationship with family members, having longer working periods, and more living in non-poverty. In addition, chronic health problems, loss of spouse, and household income differentiated the increased and then decreased pattern from the low stable pattern. Also, age and public pension differentiated the moderated but increased pattern from the low stable pattern. Based on the findings of this study, the researchers suggested political and practical implications for reducing depressive symptoms in later life.

Optimization for Extraction of ${\beta}-Carotene$ from Carrot by Supercritical Carbon Dioxide (초임계 유체에 의한 당근의 ${\beta}-Carotene$ 추출의 최적화)

  • Kim, Young-Hoh;Chang, Kyu-Seob;Park, Young-Deuk
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.411-416
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    • 1996
  • Supercritical fluid extraction of ${\beta}$-carotene from carrot was optimized to maximize ${\beta}$-carotene (Y) extraction yield. A central composite design involving extraction pressure ($X_1$ 200-,100 bar), temperature ($X_2,\;35-51^{\circ}C$) and time ($X_1$$ 60-200min) was used. Three independent factors ($X_1,\;X_2,\;X_3$) were chosen to determine their effects on the various responses and the function was expressed in terms of a quadratic polynomial equation,$Y={\beta}_0+{\beta}_1X_1+{\beta}_2X_2+{\beta}_3X_3+{\beta}_11X_12+{\beta}_22X_3^2+{\beta}_-12X_1X_2+{\beta}_12X_1X_2+{\beta}_13X_1X_3+{\beta}_23X_2X_3,$ which measures the linear, quadratic and interaction effects. Extraction yields of ${\beta}$-carotene were affected by pressure, time and temperature in the decreasing order, and linear effect of tenter point (${\beta}_11$) and pressure (${\beta}_1$) were significant at a level of 0.001(${\alpha}$). Based on the analysis of variance, the model fitted for ${\beta}_11$-carotene (Y) was significant at 5% confidence level and the coefficient of determination was 0.938. According to the response surface of ${\beta}$-carotene by cannoical analysis, the stationary point for quantitatively dependent variable (Y) was found to be the maximum point for extraction yield. Response area for ${\beta}$-carotene (Y) in terms of interesting region was estimated over $10,611{\mu}g$ Per 100 g raw carrot under extraction.

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Relation between Highway Improvement and Induced Travel Demand, and Estimate the Demand Elasticity (A Seoul Metropolitan Area Case) (도로환경개선과 집합적 개념의 유발통행수요와의 관련성 규명 및 수요탄력성 추정(수도권을 중심으로))

  • Lee, Gyu-Jin;Choe, Gi-Ju;Sim, Sang-U;Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.4 s.90
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2006
  • The purpose or this paper is to investigate the relationship between highway improvement and Induced Travel Demand(ITD) focusing on the Seoul metropolitan area data. In addition, authors tried to estimate basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose which can be applied for the ITD forecasting. The results are based on the 2002 Metropolitan Household Transportation Survey Data, where the demand elasticity (DE) is -0.582 in Seoul, -0.597 in Incheon and -0.559 in Gyounggi province, respectively. This study revealed part of the relationship between highway improvement and ITD for metropolitan region and provided the framework for yielding real estimated values by applying the concept of demand elasticity in terms of the relationship by using regional and long-term data. We expect that the basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose can be applied for the ITD forecasting to analyze the whole demand exactly The estimated DE's for age group and day of week can also be used for Proper transportation management and transport Policy making. Some limitations have also been discussed.

The Heterogeneous Trajectories of Functional Disability in Older Adults and Their Predictors (노년기 기능장애의 이질적 발달궤적과 예측요인)

  • Lee, Hyunjoo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.15-32
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    • 2017
  • The current study aims to identify the heterogeneous changes of functional disabilities in old age rather than to identify an average longitudinal pattern and to explore the effect of health status and social status as risk factors in functional disability trajectories. The sample consisted of a representative sample of community dwellers aged 65 and older from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006 - 2012) was the focus of the study. Latent Class Growth Analysis was used to identify the functional disability trajectory groups. Variables regarding health status and social status changes by class were identified using multinomial logistic regression. The results showed various change patterns in functional disability, which include independent (78%), stable high (4.4%), steeply increasing (7.1%), slightly increasing (5.5%), and moderate to low (4.7%). Aggravation in depressive symptoms and cognitive functions as well as decline in social participations and social engagements were significant predictors of membership in increasing group of functional disability. The findings provide important initial empirical information to target clinical practice and have implications in the importance of conducting research on groups with different characteristics.

Analysis of Attitudes and Influencing Factors on Foreign Workers (외국인 근로자에 대한 태도와 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Misook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.150-160
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the attitudes of Korean people regarding foreign workers and to analyze the influence factors. Analysis of the attitude difference and the influential factors utilized the SPSS ${\chi}^2$ test and multinomial logistic regression analysis using 2016 data obtained from the 'Koreans' Consciousness and Values'. Socio-demographic variables, national identity, and socioeconomic variables were used as explanatory variables. The attitude types (friendly, negative, and dual) of respondents were identified, and the influence of explanatory variables influencing these attitudes was identified. Analysis found they have a relatively generous stance on granting legal rights, while they are negative regarding the economic and social threats from foreign workers. As a result of analyzing the factors affecting attitudes, there are significant differences in each influence. However, negative attitudes and dual attitude concerning with negative legal rights found common to the influence of the factors of national identity. Gender and ratio of foreign workers were influential factors for dual attitudes with a high economic threat. On the other hand, socioeconomic factors reflecting the realistic conflict theory were not found to have any effect. The negative attitude of foreign workers in our society can be regarded as cognitive threats rather than realistic experiences or conflicts.

Influence of Multidimensional Deprivation on the Latent Class of Changing Trajectories: Comparison by Gender Differences (다차원적 박탈이 문제음주 변화궤적의 잠재집단에 미치는 영향: 성별 차이 비교)

  • Lee, SooBi;Lee, Suyoung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.278-291
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    • 2021
  • This study performed a longitudinal research on the causal relationship between multidimensionality of problem drinking and poverty, and multidimensional deprivation meaning the inequality, focusing on gender difference. For this, this study examined the latent group of problem drinking change trajectory through the latent class growth analysis targeting total 3,770 men and 5,632 women by using the 6th-year Korea Welfare Panel Study data from 2013 to 2018, and then conducted the multinominal logistic regression analysis to verify the influence of multidimensional deprivation factors on this latent group. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the latent group of problem drinking change trajectory according to gender was classified into three latent groups in both men and women while the development aspect was different from each other. The male latent group with 'moderate level' or higher showed higher level of problem drinking than women. However, in case of 'drinking group with high level' according to gender, as time passed, the men tended to maintain it while the women tended to increase it. Second, in the results of examining the effects of multidimensional deprivation on the latent group of problem drinking change trajectory, the men with more experiences of social deprivation and the women with more experiences of social security deprivation showed the higher possibility to belong to the 'drinking group with high level' compared to the 'drinking group with low level'. Based on such results above, this study discussed the preventive/intervention measures for problem drinking according to gender.

Determinants of Long-Term Care Service Use by Elderly (노인장기요양서비스 이용형태 결정요인 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-kyung
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.917-933
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    • 2009
  • This study examined the factors affecting forms of long-term care service use by elderly and the forms of use are classified facility care service, home care service, and unused. It is used data from the 2nd pilot program for the Long Term Care Insurance scheme and it is analysed 5,497 cases. Multi-nominal regression is used. According to the results, women use formal service more than man do, and wowen use facility care than home care. Those who eligible for National Basic Livelihood Security System(NBLSS) are shown to have higher use of formal care(especially facility care) than the middle income class, and the low income class than the middle income class has lower use of formal care. In addition, higher the family care is available, lower the taking part in the service. The big cities and mid sized cities than rural are used the formal service and moreover mid sized cities are used facility care than home care. Furthermore, the level of care need is determinants of service use and function of ADL, IADL, and abnormal behavior is also determinants of formal service(especially facility care). But nursing need and rehabilitation need are not determinants of formal service use. Based on the results, the recommendations are developed and implemented for the improvement the elderly long-term care insurance.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Analysis to Determine the Employment Status of Married Women's on the Social Factors Associated (기혼여성의 고용지위 결정요인에 관련한 사회변인 분석)

  • Hwang, Hee-Sook;Kim, Youn-Jae;Park, Jung-Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2012
  • After industrialization, the labor force participation rates of women, especially married women is drastically increasing. So, this study was designed to analyze the determinants of married women's employment status considered. For this, the determinants of married women's employment status were divided into individual-related, children-related, household-related and job-related variables to establish the research models. Based on this, the following results were drawn from a multinominal logistic regression analysis of the determinants of married women's employment status. First, an analysis of individual-related variable showed that married women had the employment status of labor wages with residence in the center of the city and high academic background. Second, an analysis of children-related variable showed that they had the employment status of labor wages with many their children and no their children under the age of six. Third, an analysis of household-related variable showed that they had the self-employment status of labor wages with nuclear family and few income earners of family members. Finally, an analysis of job-related variable showed that they had the employment status of labor wages when they got a job before they got married, their husband didn't get a job, and their husband worked in a professional field. As for findings stated above, as there was a difference in the determinants of married women's employment status, the ways for improvement in the married women's employment status would be suggested as follows. First, married women with young children have the low employment status, basically, requiring problem-solving ways for this because the housekeeping and child-rearing burden caused by marriage and childbirth are factors that continue to obstruct a job. For this, the flexible working hours system, which housekeeping and child-rearing can harmonize with economic activities like developed countries, needs to be activated. But the activation of such flexible working system will produce actual results under institutional protection, such as a related-protection law. Second, the Leave of Child Care System is debated as one of the most representatively systems that housekeeping can harmonize with economic activities. Now, although the System is legislated, the use is very poor.

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