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Possible Continuity and Change of North Korea Though Analysis of, Kim Jong-un's New Year's Message (북한 신년사 분석을 통한 김정은 시대 지속과 변화)

Lee, Sung Choon
- Convergence Security Journal
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- v.14 no.6_1
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- pp.75-87
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- 2014
It may be meaningful that analysis of possible continuity and change of North Korea's Kim Jong-un's ruling in its third year. For this analysis, for the application more rational and statistical analysis methods, this study takes advantage of the new years' messages of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong-un. In North Korea, the new years' messages are rare enough to give influence to every field of the North Korea's community and the New Year's message performs tutorial role throughout the whole year. The said messages of Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong-un regimes have been researched and comprehensively summarized. The summarized New Year's Message by Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un are separated, compared and analyzed by the regime by presentation method, configured information, and others followed by New Year message's characteristics and implications of each North Korean regime that have been investigated. Based on the results of this analysis of Kim Jong-un era, possibility of its continuation and change is forecasted. Above all, for possible continuation of the ruling, sticking to the governing socialist way and military-first politics are presented. For possible causes of change, such the four factors as partial opening to overcome economic problems, the North Korean nuclear issue, influx of the nature of capitalism, and Kim Jung-un's control weakness have been presented. Such the factors of possible change and continuation of the North Korea Kim Jung-un ruling are expected to work as a combination of factors. The issue of continuation and change of North Korea Kim Jong-un's control is a key point for us to solve the issues between North and South Koreas. In the situation that the whole people of South Korea have a national consensus in the effort of gathering the public opinion, it is a high time that we needed to have much flexibility to actively cope with the North Korean issues.
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