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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A study on mandatory insurance for aircraft operators (항공보험 가입의무에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.169-197
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to present a reasonable and concrete standard for the Korean aviation insurance compulsory subscription system. Through this, we aim to improve the current revision of laws and regulations, and ultimately create an environment in which the safety and property of the Korean people who use aircraft with appropriate aviation insurance can be secured. In particular, by reviewing the aviation business law and its new laws and regulations enacted in 2017, the legislative improvement direction of aviation insurance will be proposed. In order to maintain the continuous growth of the air transportation industry and to make amicable compensation for the victims, considering the characteristics of the total accident, instantness, and giganticness of air accidents in which a lot of people and property are lost in the event of an accident, adequate insurance coverage is essential. In this respect, the compulsory insurance to amend the principle of freedom of contract, which is the great principle of the modern judicial system, will be persuasive. However, in comparison with foreign legislation, the legal provisions on Korea's obligation to comply with aviation insurance need to be revised around the following issues: First, it is reasonable to enforce the regulation of the mandatory aviation insurance by legislation from the Congress not by administrative regulations. Because it will force the monetary obligations of the individual such as common air carriers. Second, our law regulations respond to various kinds of air damages by using the phrase "limit of liability stipulated in international conventions". However, as we have seen in the text, the range of compensation are various according to the use of legal instruments in international conventions such as the Montreal Convention, which governs the compensation of passengers for damages to passengers today. Third, in countries with narrow territories, such as Korea, there are big differences in flying time and insurable risk between domestic and international transportation. Therefore, it is necessary to divide domestic transportation and international transportation even in the obligation to join the insurance. This dual discipline has the advantage for rookies in air carrier market who mainly start their business from domestic service. Fourth, according to Korean law, the regulations of automobile loss insurance is applicable to the aviation mandatory insurance of unmanned aerial vehicle accident which is lack of persuasion. In the future, it will be appropriate to discipline insurance for unmanned aerial vehicles with unlimited potential for development from a long-term perspective.

Influencing Factors Analysis for the Number of Participants in Public Contracts Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 공공계약의 입찰참가자수 영향요인 분석)

  • Choi, Tae-Hong;Lee, Kyung-Hee;Cho, Wan-Sup
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2018
  • This study analyze the factors affecting the number of bidders in public contracts by collecting contract data such as purchase of goods, service and facility construction through KONEPS among various forms of public contracts. The reason why the number of bidders is important in public contracts is that it can be a minimum criterion for judging whether to enter into a rational contract through fair competition and is closely related to the budget reduction of the ordering organization or the profitability of the bidders. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that determine the participation of bidders in public contracts and to present the problems and policy implications of bidders' participation in public contracts. This research distinguishes the existing sampling based research by analyzing and analyzing many contracts such as purchasing, service and facility construction of 4.35 million items in which 50,000 public institutions have been placed as national markets and 300,000 individual companies and corporations participated. As a research model, the number of announcement days, budget amount, contract method and winning bid is used as independent variables and the number of bidders is used as a dependent variable. Big data and multidimensional analysis techniques are used for survey analysis. The conclusions are as follows: First, the larger the budget amount of public works projects, the smaller the number of participants. Second, in the contract method, restricted competition has more participants than general competition. Third, the duration of bidding notice did not significantly affect the number of bidders. Fourth, in the winning bid method, the qualification examination bidding system has more bidders than the lowest bidding system.

An Exploratory Study on the Industry/Market Characteristics of the 'Hyper-Growing Companies' and the Firm Strategies: A Focus on Firms with more than Annual Revenue of 100 Million dollars from 'Inc. the 5,000 Fastest-Growing Private Companies in America' (초고성장 기업의 산업/시장 특성과 전략 선택에 대한 탐색적 연구: 'Inc. the 5,000 Fastest-Growing Private Companies in America' 기업 중 연간 매출액 1억 달러 이상 기업을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Young-Dall;Oh, Soyoung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.51-78
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    • 2021
  • Followed by 'start-up', the theme of 'scale-up' has been considered as an important agenda in both corporate and policy spheres. In particular, although it is a term commonly used in industry and policy fields, even a conceptual definition has not been achieved from the academic perspective. "Corporate Growth" in the academic aspect and "Business Growth" in the practical management field have different understandings (Achtenhagen et al., 2010). Previous research on corporate growth has not departed from Penrose(1959)'s "Firm as a bundle of resources" and "the role of managers". Based on the theory and background of economics, existing research has mainly examined factors that contribute to firms' growth and their growth patterns. Comparatively, we lack knowledge on the firms' growth with a focus on 'annual revenue growth rate'. In the early stage of the firms, they tend to exhibit a high growth rate as it started with a lower level of annual revenue. However, when the firms reach annual revenue of more than 100 billion KRW, a threshold to be classified as a 'middle-standing enterprise' by Korean standards, they are unlikely to reach a high level of revenue growth rate. In our study, we used our sample of 333 companies (6.7% out of 5,000 'fastest-growing' companies) which reached 15% of the compound annual growth rate in the last three years with more than USD 100 million. It shows that sustaining 'high-growth' above a certain firm size is difficult. The study focuses on firms with annual revenue of more than $100 billion (approximately 120 billion KRW) from the 'Inc. 2020 fast-growing companies 5,000' list. The companies have been categorized into 1) Fast-growing companies (revenue CAGR 15%~40% between 2016 and 2019), 2) Hyper-growing companies (40%~99.9%), and 3) Super-growing (100% or more) with in-depth analysis of each group's characteristics. Also, the relationship between the revenue growth rate, individual company's strategy choice (market orientation, generic strategy, growth strategy, pioneer strategy), industry/market environment, and firm age is investigated with a quantitative approach. Through conducting the study, it aims to provide a reference to the 'Hyper-Growing Model' that combines the paths and factors of growth strategies. For policymakers, our study intends to provide a reference to which factors or environmental variables should be considered for 'optimal effective combinations' to promote firms' growth.

Comparative Analysis of Detection Methods for Food-borne Pathogens in Fresh-cut Agricultural Materials (신선 농산물내 식중독균 검출 방법의 비교 분석)

  • Jang, Hye-Jeong;Kim, Hye-Jeong;Park, Ji-in;Yu, Sun-Nyoung;Park, Bo-Bae;Ha, Gang-Ja;Ahn, Soon-Cheol;Kim, Dong-Seob
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2021
  • The consumption of fresh-cut agricultural materials is increasing due to increased public interest in health and the increase of single-person households. Most fresh-cut agricultural materials can be eaten without heating, thus easily exposing the consumer to food-borne pathogens. As a result, food-borne diseases are increasing worldwide. In the analysis of food-borne pathogens, it is important to detect the strains, but this is time consuming and laborious. Alternative detection methods that have been introduced, include polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), which is performed without prior culturing. Samples of fresh-cut agricultural materials, such as vegetables, were analyzed by the culture-based method. In 129 samples, non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (3.9%), Bacillus cereus (31.8%), Clostridium perfringens (5.4%), Yersinia enterocolitica (0.8%), and enterohemorrhagic E. coli (0.8%) were detected. Eight samples contaminated with bacteria were randomly selected, further analyzed by PCR-DGGE, and compared with the culture-based method. Two cases detected non-pathogenic E. coli by PCR-DGGE only, despite a lack of detection by the culture method. It was supposed there was possibility of sample loss during its 10-fold dilution for appropriate cultivation. In the detection of high-risk food-borne pathogens, it was found that the detection limit was lower in PCR-DGGE than in the culture-based method (10 CFU/g). This suggests that PCR-DGGE can be alternatively used to detect strains. On the other hand, low-risk food-borne pathogens seem to have higher detection limits in PCR-DGGE. Consequentially, this study contributes to the improvement of food-borne pathogen detection and the prevention of its related-diseases in fresh-cut agricultural materials.

A Study of the Application of 'Digital Heritage ODA' - Focusing on the Myanmar cultural heritage management system - (디지털 문화유산 ODA 적용에 관한 시론적 연구 -미얀마 문화유산 관리시스템을 중심으로-)

  • Jeong, Seongmi
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.198-215
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    • 2020
  • Official development assistance refers to assistance provided by governments and other public institutions in donor countries, aimed at promoting economic development and social welfare in developing countries. The purpose of this research is to examine the construction process of the "Myanmar Cultural Heritage Management System" that is underway as part of the ODA project to strengthen cultural and artistic capabilities and analyze the achievements and challenges of the Digital Cultural Heritage ODA. The digital cultural heritage management system is intended to achieve the permanent preservation and sustainable utilization of tangible and intangible cultural heritage materials. Cultural heritage can be stored in digital archives, newly approached using computer analysis technology, and information can be used in multiple dimensions. First, the Digital Cultural Heritage ODA was able to permanently preserve cultural heritage content that urgently needed digitalization by overcoming and documenting the "risk" associated with cultural heritage under threat of being extinguished, damaged, degraded, or distorted in Myanmar. Second, information on Myanmar's cultural heritage can be systematically managed and used in many ways through linkages between materials. Third, cultural maps can be implemented that are based on accurate geographical location information as to where cultural heritage is located or inherited. Various items of cultural heritage were collectively and intensively visualized to maximize utility and convenience for academic, policy, and practical purposes. Fourth, we were able to overcome the one-sided limitations of cultural ODA in relations between donor and recipient countries. Fifth, the capacity building program run by officials in charge of the beneficiary country, which could be the most important form of sustainable development in the cultural ODA, was operated together. Sixth, there is an implication that it is an ODA that can be relatively smooth and non-face-to-face in nature, without requiring the movement of manpower between countries during the current global pandemic. However, the following tasks remain to be solved through active discussion and deliberation in the future. First, the content of the data uploaded to the system should be verified. Second, to preserve digital cultural heritage, it must be protected from various threats. For example, it is necessary to train local experts to prepare for errors caused by computer viruses, stored data, or operating systems. Third, due to the nature of the rapidly changing environment of computer technology, measures should also be discussed to address the problems that tend to follow when new versions and programs are developed after the end of the ODA project, or when developers have not continued to manage their programs. Fourth, since the classification system criteria and decisions regarding whether the data will be disclosed or not are set according to Myanmar's political judgment, it is necessary to let the beneficiary country understand the ultimate purpose of the cultural ODA project.

A Study on the Landscape Architecture Historical Significance of Reung Chambong in the Joseon Dynasty (조선시대 능참봉직(陵參奉職)의 조경사적 의의)

  • Shin, Hyun-Sil;Lee, Won-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2011
  • This study has a purpose of base study for ascertaining landscape architect's role of Reung Chambong through analyzing old literature include Kyungkukdae-Jeon, Sokdae-Jeon, Daejeonhoitong, Joseonwangjo-Sillok, Eugye, Reung-Ji, Ilsung-Rok, Reung Chambong's diary. Reung Chambong was a government post in the Joseon dynasty, who managed Royal Tombs of Joseon Dynasty that has promoted as a World Heritage of UNESCO. the conclusions drawn from this study are as follows. First, Reung Chambong was comprised of two Jong 9 pum Chanmbong members. a position of Reung Chambong was a Eumjik appointed Saengwon, Jinsa, Yuhak completed Sammang. the standards of appointment is a experienced person and too young. it became means for accessing a government post because it had a symbolic representation of Royal Tombs guardian. Second, The management system of Reung Chambong was approved on the basis of ranking. however, due to geographical reasons, they had much authority and various mission than is possible. for example, construction supervisor of the Reung and Bongsim, manager of the Reungsuhogun and filling out Reungji. they performed an important role in management of Royal Tombs in the Joseon dynasty. Third, One of tasks related in landscape architecture, a Bongshim reported Sukmul(stonework), Sacho, Jungja-Gak of Reungsang to Yejo periodically. formational system and method of Bongshim are provided in the Kyungkukdae-Jeon and Sokdae-Jeon detailedly. Fourth, Tree management and construction supervisor of Reungsang, positions among tasks related in landscape architecture, required basic understanding and management ability of botany, various eye for spatial perception includes civil and architectural projects. also, as a site management of Royal Tombs in the Joseon dynasty, Reung Chambong was empowered tacit authorization and responsibility in mobility preoccupancy of vertical relationship with local officials and handling by-product of site. there is a close correspondence with landscape architect of today. A follow-up research is required to ascertain landscape architect historical values of Royal Tombs in the Joseon dynasty and Reung Chambong's role as a site management of Royal Tombs in the Joseon dynasty through historical seeking and research old literature on Reung Chambong's role related in landscape architect.

A Comparative Study on a New Religion, the Idea of the Gaebyok (신종교의 개벽사상 비교)

  • Shin, Jin-sik
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.56
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    • pp.81-117
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to clarify the overall features and its meaning of the Gaebyok(開闢) through the intercomparison of the Gaebyok idea that is the core idea of a newly risen modern religion in Korea. Limitation of most studies so far is that they have stayed in the fragmentary study on the Gaebyok idea of each new religion. In order to overcome this problem, first of all, the Gaebyok idea was studied from a philosophical point encompassing the cosmological view of time in the book of changes. And based on this methodological foundation, with organizing the existing result of study, the process of development and characteristics in the Gaebyok idea of a posteriori Donghak(東學), Right I Ching (正易), Won Buddhism(圓佛敎), and Kangjeungsan(姜甑山) was investigated respectively. And through comparing and analyzing each Gaebyok idea, the similarities and differences between each other were organized. The founders of new religions thought that a great change in the universal and natural luck was made before and after the point of their living. The concept of the frequency of revolution theory is the concept to explain the aspect of transition according to the frequency of revolution(運度) of the cosmological nature that returns to the beginning, and in the idea of the posterior Gaebyok, this content and concepts is contained as it was. This study showed that the concept of the frequency of revolution theory in an apriority and a posterior like those becomes appeared in some preaches of Suun, Ilbu, Sotaesan and Jeungsan. An apriority in the Gaebyok idea of new religion is the world of crisis that represents the limited condition of human being, and a posterity means the religious ideal world realized through the power of the absolute being or a dramatic universal change from that limited circumstances. So the Gaebyok ida is a kind of an universal eschatology and religious view that expects the coming of ideal world in the future. In addition, since the universal eschatology is a kind of a view of time, it inevitably has an issue how long time apriority and a posterity included in it have. And especially, it becomes to premise the content how the social condition and human condition change in an apriority and a posterity. Accordingly, in this study, based on the understanding of the view of time in the cosmological level, the content of answers that each newly risen religion discloses was listed and analyzed with comparison. It can be considered that Suun took charge of a mission to deliver the message through being possessed of a god in heaven who is able to be called a transcendental existence, Ilbu disclosed the coming of the world of a posterity beyond an apriority through the Book of Changes(易學), Jeungsan proclaimed himself as the absolute being who could make such a posterity and bring it, and Sotaesan proposed the Gaebyok of mind in order to meet with the world of a posterity and to live in that era.

A Study on the Chinese Translated of Korean version Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄) of 『Sang-bong-lok』 in Korean (한역본(漢譯本) 연행록 『상봉록(桑蓬錄)』의 특징과 한역(漢譯) 양상 연구)

  • Chaung, Nae Won
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.55
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    • pp.147-172
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    • 2014
  • Kang Jae Eung translated "Sang-bong-lok" of Kang Ho Boo from Korean into Chinese. There is Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄) written in with Korean and Chinese among 500 Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄). Especially it is very rare that is translated from Korean into Chinese. Because of there aspect, it is valuable and worth studying. "Sang-bong-lok" was 3 series by origin, but now we have only 2 series. That is the original text written in Chinese by Kang Ho Boo, a Korean version by Kang Ho Boo, and Chinese translated of Korean version by his descindants Kang Jae Eung. Original text dosen't exists now undiscovered yet. Chinese version "Sang-bong-lok" is distinguished from the other Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄) and classical novel in form and contents. In formal aspect, Chinese version "Sang-bong-lok" describes an industry remarks in prologue. This industry remark describes standard and form of writing. Looking industry remark, you can find that Kang Jae Eung didn't add or subject the sentence of original text and distinguished between his own sentence and original text. This compiling system distinguishing compiler from original writter is rare enough to so that you cannot find it in other Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄). In contents, Kang Jae Eung almost transcribed Korean Yeonhaengnok(燕行錄) without subtraction and added special information to promote the view of Kang Ho Boo. After discription, Kang Jae Eung covered all information and reviewed it and added opinion to it. Kang Jae Eung's conclusion is sometimes same or different from Kang Ho Boo's. Anyway it is worthy of noticing that Kang Jae Eung wrote his opinion after Kang Ho Boo's sentence.

A Study on the Construction Characteristics of Folk Houses Designated as Cultural Heritage in Jeolla-do Province (전라도 지역 문화재 지정 민가정원의 현황 및 조영특성)

  • Jin, Min-Ryeong;Jeong, Myeong-Seok;Sim, Ji-Yeon;Lee, Hye-Suk;Lee, Kyung-Mi;Jin, Hye-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2020
  • For the purpose of recording Folk House Garden, this study was to review the historical value, location, space composition, Placememnt of the Building, garden composition, and management status of Folk House Garden designated as a cultural asset in Jeolla-do and to promote continuous maintenance and preservation in the future and enhance its value. The results of the study are as follows. First, most of them have been influenced by the trend of the times, such as the creation of a modern private garden and the spread of agricultural and commercial development through the garden components influenced by the royal, Japanese, and Western styles. Second, there are differences in the spatial composition of private households and the way they handle sponsorship, depending on the geographical location. When the geographical features were divided into flat and sloping areas, private houses located on flat land were divided into walls, walls were placed around the support area, and flower systems and stone blocks were created. The private houses located on the slope were divided into two to three tiers of space, and the wooden plant, flower bed, and stone bed were naturally connected to the background forest without creating a wall at the rear hill. Third, the size of the house and the elements of the garden have been partially destroyed, damaged, and changed, and if there is a lack of records of the change process, there is a limit to the drawing floor plan. There were many buildings and garden components that were lost or damaged due to changes in the trend and demand of the times, and some of them without records had to rely on the memory of owners and managers. Fourth, the species in Warm Temperate Zone, which reflects the climatic characteristics of Jeolla-do, was produced, and many of the exotic species, not traditional ones, were introduced. Fifth, fine-grained tree management standards are needed to prepare for changes in spatial function and plant species considering modern convenience.