• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.70.3-70.3
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• 2017

맑은 날에도 엷은 상층운이나 난류의 방해로 관측 품질이 저해되는 등 천문 분야는 대기환경에 민감하나, 하층 대기 상태에 비중을 두는 동네예보만으로는 천문 분야의 기상정보에 대한 수요를 충족하기에는 한계가 있다. 이에 천문 관측 환경에 보다 특화된 별밤예보를 개발하여 천체 관측 가능성과 천문 관측 자료의 품질을 좌우하는 대기상태를 UM 국지모델 생산자료를 바탕으로 예보하고자 한다. 예보 요소는 하늘상태(운량), 시상(seeing), 투명도, 암도(darkness) 및 대기청명지수, 풍속, 기온, 습도이다. 대기청명지수는 일반인이 관찰하기 좋은지 여부를 한 눈에 알 수 있게 운량과 투명도, 암도를 종합한 지수로 10~100까지 10단계로 제공할 계획이다. 하늘상태와 풍속, 기온, 습도는 $5{\times}5km$격자마다 제공되는 기상청 동네예보에서 천문대와 가장 가까운 격자의 예보치를 추출하였다. 시상은 대기의 난류 정도에 좌우된다. 그러나 충북의 고층기상 관측자료가 없어서, 시상 예보식을 만들기 위해 UM 국지모델에서 제공하는 각 등압면의 기온과 바람벡터로부터 정적 안정도(온위 경도)와 연직 바람시어를 유도한 뒤, 다중회귀분석으로 시상 예보식을 구하였다. 또한 대기청명지수는 청주기상지청에서 관측한 운량과 밤하늘 밝기 자료를 종속변수, 별의 개수를 독립변수로 하는 다중회귀예측식을 구하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.27-38
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• 2020

Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2002

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature up to +45 hours in Seoul area is performed using dynamic linear models(DLM). Numerical outputs and observations we used as input values of DLM. According to compare DLM forecasts to RDAPS forecasts using RMSE, DLM improve the accuracy of prediction and systematic error of numerical model outputs are eliminated by DLM.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.76-84
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• 2013

An adequate downscaling of the official forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is a prerequisite to improving the value and utility of agrometeorological information in rural areas, where complex terrain and small farms constitute major features of the landscape. In this study, we suggest a simple correction scheme for scaling down the KMA temperature forecasts from mesoscale (5 km by 5 km) to the local scale (30 m by 30 m) across a rural catchment, especially under temperature inversion conditions. The study area is a rural catchment of $50km^2$ area with complex terrain and located on a southern slope of Mountain Jiri National Park. Temperature forecasts for 0600 LST on 62 days with temperature inversion were selected from the fall 2011-spring 2012 KMA data archive. A geospatial correction scheme which can simulate both cold air drainage and the so-called 'thermal belt' was used to derive the site-specific temperature deviation across the study area at a 30 m by 30 m resolution from the original 5 km by 5 km forecast grids. The observed temperature data at 12 validation sites within the study area showed a substantial reduction in forecast error: from ${\pm}2^{\circ}C$ to ${\pm}1^{\circ}C$ in the mean error range and from $1.9^{\circ}C$ to $1.6^{\circ}C$ in the root mean square error. Improvement was most remarkable at low lying locations showing frequent cold pooling events. Temperature prediction error was less than $2^{\circ}C$ for more than 80% of the observed inversion cases and less than $1^{\circ}C$ for half of the cases. Temperature forecasts corrected by this scheme may accelerate implementation of the freeze and frost early warning service for major fruits growing regions in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.1 s.118
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• pp.1-14
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• 2007

This study aimed to evaluate weather forecast accuracies of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sky cover by the localized land forecast areas over South Korea Average forecast accuracy score of precipitation was the lowest while that of sky cover was the highest during the study period Overall forecast accuracy scores for Gangwon-do was the lowest while those for Gyeongsangnam-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do were higher than other areas. The frequencies of perfect forecast(eight points) by seasons, were the highest during winter and the lowest during summer. pressure pattern analyses for days when forecast accuracy scores were poor, showed that precipitation forecast accuracy scores were lower due to the movement of the stationary fronts during summers. When continental polar air masses expanded, forecast accuracy of temperature became greatly lower during autumns and winters As the migratory anticyclone pattern rapidly moved, forecast accuracy became lower during springs and autumns. Forecast accuracies were compared by wind directions at 850hPa for the Young-dong region where forecast accuracy was the lowest. Forecast accuracy scores on minimum and maximum temperatures were low when winds were westerlies and forecast accuracy scores of precipitation were low when winds were easterlies.

• Water for future
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.99-105
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• 1993

A practical flood forecasting model(FFM) is suggested. The output of the model is the results which the initial condition of meteorological parameters and soil moisture are projected on the future. The physically based station model for rainfall forecasting(RF) and the storage function model for runoff prediction(RP) are adopted respectively. Input variables for FFM are air temperature, pressure, and dew-point temperature at the ground level and the flow at the rising limb(FRL). The constant parameters for FFM are average of optimum values which the past storm events have. Also loss rate of rainfall can predicted by FRL.

• Life and Agrochemicals
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• s.246
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• pp.28-31
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• 2009

$1912{\sim}2005$년 사이 우리나라의 평균 기온은 지속적으로 상승하여 약 $1.5^{\circ}C$ 상승하였다. 이는 지구 평균기온 상승($0.74^{\circ}C$)의 2배를 상회한 것이다. 장기적으로 농업기상정보시스템을 구축, 농업기상 예보 및 영농대책 자료를 농업인에게 제공해야 할 것이다.

• KOREAN POULTRY JOURNAL
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• v.38 no.1 s.435
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• pp.84-87
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• 2006

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.317-325
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• 2015

An adequate downscaling of synoptic forecasts is a prerequisite for improved agrometeorological service to rural areas in South Korea where complex terrains and small farms are common. In this study, geospatial schemes based on topoclimatology were used to scale down the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) temperature forecasts to the local scale (~30 m) across a rural catchment. Then, using these schemes, local temperatures were estimated at 14 validation sites at 0600 and 1500 LST in 2013/2014 and were compared with the observations. The estimation errors were substantially reduced for both 0600 and 1500 LST temperatures when compared against the uncorrected KMA products. The improvement was most notable at low lying locations for the 0600 temperature and at the locations on west- and south-facing slopes for the 1500 LST temperature. Using the downscaled real-time temperature data, a pilot service has started to provide the field-specific weather information tailored to meet the requirements of small-scale farms. For example, the service system makes a daily outlook on the phenology of crop species grown in a given field using the field-specific temperature data. When the temperature forecast is given for next morning, a frost risk index is calculated according to a known relationship of phenology and frost injury. If the calculated index is higher than a pre-defined threshold, a warning is issued and delivered to the grower's cellular phone with relevant countermeasures to help protect crops against frost damage.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.432-432
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• 2016

말라리아는 Plasmodium 속 원충으로 인하여 적혈구와 간 세포내에 발병하는 감염병으로, 매년 약 3-5억의 발병과 100만 명 이상의 사망자로 인하여 세계보건기구(WHO)가 선정한 6대 열대병 중에서도 가장 중요한 질환으로 고려되고 있다. 우리나라에서도 법정전염병 제3군으로 지정된 중요한 감염병이다. 국내에서는 지난 2000년 이후 감소 추세를 보이던 국내 말라리아 환자발생(현역 군인 포함)이 2005년 1,324명, 2006년 2,021명, 2007년 2,192명으로 2007년 국내 말라리아 환자는 전년대비 8.5%의 증가를 보이고 있다. 일반적으로, 매개체를 통한 감염병은 생태계 내에서의 상호 작용에 영향을 받기 때문 기후 인자와도 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 알려져 있다. 특히, 모기 매개 질병은 기후의 영향을 크게 받으며, 기온, 강수량, 습도 등의 수문기상 요소가 중요한 영향을 미치며, 그 중에서도 말라리아는 매개체에 의한 전염병 중 가장 중요하게 다루어지는 전염병인 동시에 기후변화에 가장 민감한 질병이다. 이 때문에 말리리아와 기후 인자 및 기후변화를 연관 지으려는 연구가 다수 수행되어 왔으며, 특히 최근에는 습지와 기후 인자와 말라리아의 상관관계를 분석하는 등의 다각적인 분석도 이루어지고 있다. 또한, 최근에 기후변화가 현실적인 문제로서 부각되면서 말라리아의 발생 문제에 대한 연구도 다각적으로 수행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후 인자 및 기후변화와 상관성이 높은 감염병 중에서 국내 발병자 수가 많아서 분석이 용이한 말라리아를 주요한 감염병으로 선정하고, 말라리아의 발생과 기후 인자와의 상관관계를 살펴보고, 이를 바탕으로 기후 인자에 따른 말라리아의 발생을 모의할 수 있는 모형을 구축하고, 실제 적용성을 검증하였다. 이를 위하여 2001년부터 2011년까지의 월간 말라리아 감염병 발생 현황과 전국 기상대의 기후인자를 수집하였다. 말라리아와의 상관 분석을 위해서 포함된 기후인자는 평균기온($^{\circ}C$), 상대습도(%), 강수량(mm)을 이용하여 연관성을 분석하였으며, 이를 회귀 모형화 하였다. 연구결과, 구축된 회귀 모형이 말라리아 발생자료에 대한 설명력이 있는 것으로 나타났다.