• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2017

Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.75-100
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• 2018

Mobile devices have become an important channel for news content usage in our daily life. However, online news content readers' resistance to online news monetization is more serious than other digital content businesses, such as webtoons, music sources, videos, and games. Since major portal sites distribute online news content free of charge to increase their traffics, customers have been accustomed to free news content; hence this makes online news providers more difficult to switch their policies on business models (i.e., monetization policy). As a result, most online news providers are highly dependent on the advertising business model, which can lead to increasing number of false, exaggerated, or sensational advertisements inside the news website to maximize their advertising revenue. To reduce this advertising dependencies, many online news providers had attempted to switch their 'free' readers to 'paid' users, but most of them failed. However, recently, some online news media have been successfully applying the Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) payment model, which allows readers to voluntarily pay fees for their favorite news content. These successful cases shed some lights to the managers of online news content provider regarding that the PWYW model can serve as an alternative business model. In this study, therefore, we collected 379 online news articles from Ohmynews.com that has been successfully employing the PWYW model, and analyzed the comparative importance of systematic attributes of online news content on readers' voluntary payment. More specifically, we derived the six systematic attributes (i.e., Type of Article Title, Image Stimulation, Article Readability, Article Type, Dominant Emotion, and Article-Image Similarity) and three or four levels within each attribute based on previous studies. Then, we conducted content analysis to measure five attributes except Article Readability attribute, measured by Flesch readability score. Before conducting main content analysis, the face reliabilities of chosen attributes were measured by three doctoral level researchers with 37 sample articles, and inter-coder reliabilities of the three coders were verified. Then, the main content analysis was conducted for two months from March 2017 with 379 online news articles. All 379 articles were reviewed by the same three coders, and 65 articles that showed inconsistency among coders were excluded before employing conjoint analysis. Finally, we examined the comparative importance of those six systematic attributes (Study 1), and levels within each of the six attributes (Study 2) through conjoint analysis with 314 online news articles. From the results of conjoint analysis, we found that Article Readability, Article-Image Similarity, and Type of Article Title are the most significant factors affecting online news readers' voluntary payment. First, it can be interpreted that if the level of readability of an online news article is in line with the readers' level of readership, the readers will voluntarily pay more. Second, the similarity between the content of the article and the image within it enables the readers to increase the information acceptance and to transmit the message of the article more effectively. Third, readers expect that the article title would reveal the content of the article, and the expectation influences the understanding and satisfaction of the article. Therefore, it is necessary to write an article with an appropriate readability level, and use images and title well matched with the content to make readers voluntarily pay more. We also examined the comparative importance of levels within each attribute in more details. Based on findings of two studies, two major and nine minor propositions are suggested for future empirical research. This study has academic implications in that it is one of the first studies applying both content analysis and conjoint analysis together to examine readers' voluntary payment behavior, rather than their intention to pay. In addition, online news content creators, providers, and managers could find some practical insights from this research in terms of how they should produce news content to make readers voluntarily pay more for their online news content.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.93-111
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• 2013

As Internet and information technology (IT) continues to develop and evolve, the issue of big data has emerged at the foreground of scholarly and industrial attention. Big data is generally defined as data that exceed the range that can be collected, stored, managed and analyzed by existing conventional information systems and it also refers to the new technologies designed to effectively extract values from such data. With the widespread dissemination of IT systems, continual efforts have been made in various fields of industry such as R&D, manufacturing, and finance to collect and analyze immense quantities of data in order to extract meaningful information and to use this information to solve various problems. Since IT has converged with various industries in many aspects, digital data are now being generated at a remarkably accelerating rate while developments in state-of-the-art technology have led to continual enhancements in system performance. The types of big data that are currently receiving the most attention include information available within companies, such as information on consumer characteristics, information on purchase records, logistics information and log information indicating the usage of products and services by consumers, as well as information accumulated outside companies, such as information on the web search traffic of online users, social network information, and patent information. Among these various types of big data, web searches performed by online users constitute one of the most effective and important sources of information for marketing purposes because consumers search for information on the internet in order to make efficient and rational choices. Recently, Google has provided public access to its information on the web search traffic of online users through a service named Google Trends. Research that uses this web search traffic information to analyze the information search behavior of online users is now receiving much attention in academia and in fields of industry. Studies using web search traffic information can be broadly classified into two fields. The first field consists of empirical demonstrations that show how web search information can be used to forecast social phenomena, the purchasing power of consumers, the outcomes of political elections, etc. The other field focuses on using web search traffic information to observe consumer behavior, identifying the attributes of a product that consumers regard as important or tracking changes on consumers' expectations, for example, but relatively less research has been completed in this field. In particular, to the extent of our knowledge, hardly any studies related to brands have yet attempted to use web search traffic information to analyze the factors that influence consumers' purchasing activities. This study aims to demonstrate that consumers' web search traffic information can be used to derive the relations among brands and the relations between an individual brand and product attributes. When consumers input their search words on the web, they may use a single keyword for the search, but they also often input multiple keywords to seek related information (this is referred to as simultaneous searching). A consumer performs a simultaneous search either to simultaneously compare two product brands to obtain information on their similarities and differences, or to acquire more in-depth information about a specific attribute in a specific brand. Web search traffic information shows that the quantity of simultaneous searches using certain keywords increases when the relation is closer in the consumer's mind and it will be possible to derive the relations between each of the keywords by collecting this relational data and subjecting it to network analysis. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of analyzing how brands are positioned by consumers and what relationships exist between product attributes and an individual brand, using simultaneous search traffic information. It also presents case studies demonstrating the actual application of this method, with a focus on tablets, belonging to innovative product groups.