• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기명투표

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The Analysis of Roll Call Data from the 18th Korean National Assembly: A Bayesian Approach (제 18대 국회 기명투표 분석: 베이즈(Bayesian) 방법론 적용)

  • Hahn, Kyu S.;Kim, Yuneung;Lim, Jongho;Lim, Johan;Kwon, Suhyun;Lee, Kyeong Eun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.523-541
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    • 2014
  • We apply a Bayesian estimation procedure to the analysis of roll call voting records on 2,389 bills processed during the 18th Korean National Assembly. The analysis of roll calls yields useful tools for to combining the measurement of legislative preference with the models of legislative behavior. The current Bayesian procedure is extremely exible, applicable to any legislative setting, irrespective of the extremism of the legislator's voting history or the number of roll calls available for analysis. It can be applied to any legislative settings, providing a useful solution to many statistical problems inherent in the analysis of roll call voting records. We rst estimate the ideal points of all members of the 18th National Assembly and their condence intervals. Subsequently, using the estimated ideal points, we examine the factional disparity within each major party using the estimated ideal points. Our results clearly suggest that there exists a meaningful ideological spectrum within each party. We also show how the Bayesian procedure can easily be extended to accommodate theoretically interesting theoretical models of legislative behavior. More specically, we demonstrate how the estimated posterior probabilities can be used for identifying pivotal legislators.