• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1109-1133
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• 2013

In an effort to discover new technologies and to forecast social changes of technologies, a number of technology life-cycle models have been developed and employed. The hype cycle, a graphical tool developed by a consulting firm, Gartner, is one of the most widely used models for the purpose and it is recognised as a practical one. However, more research is needed on theoretical frames, relations and empirical practices of the model. In this study, hype cycle comparisons in Korean and global search websites were performed by means of web-search traffic which is proposed as an empirical measurement of public expectation, analysed in a specific product or country in previous researches. First, search traffic and market share for new cars were compared in Korea and the U.S. with a view to identifying differences between the hype cycles in the two countries about the same product. The results show the similarity between the two countries with the statistical significance. Next, comparative analysis between search traffic and supply rate for several products in Korea was conducted to check out their patterns. According to the analysis, all the products seem to be at the "Peak of inflated expectations" in the hype cycles and they are similar to one another in the hype cycle. This study is of significance in aspects of expanding the scope of hype cycle analysis with web-search traffic because it introduced domestic web-search traffic analysis from Naver to analyse consumers' expectations in Korea by comparison with that from Google in other countries. In addition, this research can help to explain social phenomina more persuasively with search traffic and to give scientific objectivity to the hype cycle model. Furthermore, it can contribute to developing strategies of companies, such as marketing strategy.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2013.10a
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• pp.518-531
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• 2013