• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.18
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• pp.135-183
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• 2003

Aerospace force is a determining factor in a modem war. The combat field is expanding to space. Thus, the legitimacy of establishing aerospace force is no longer an debating issue, but "how should we establish aerospace force" has become an issue to the military. The standard limiting on the military use of space should be non-aggressive use as asserted by the U.S., rather than non-military use as asserted by the former Soviet Union. The former Soviet Union's argument is not even strongly supported by the current Russia government, and realistically is hard to be applied. Thus, the multi-purpose satellite used for military surveillance or a commercial satellite employed for military communication are allowed under the U.S. principle of peaceful use of space. In this regard, Air Force may be free to develop a military surveillance satellite and a communication satellite with civilian research institute. Although MTCR, entered into with the U.S., restricts the development of space-launching vehicle for the export purpose, the development of space-launching vehicle by the Korea Air Force or Korea Aerospace Research Institute is beyond the scope of application of MTCR, and Air Force may just operate a satellite in the orbit for the military purpose. The primary task for multi-purpose satellite is a remote sensing; SAR sensor with high resolution is mainly employed for military use. Therefore, a system that enables Air Force, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, and Agency for Defense Development to conduct joint-research and development should be instituted. U.S. Air Force has dismantled its own space-launching vehicle step by step, and, instead, has increased using private space launching vehicle. In addition, Military communication has been operated separately from civil communication services or broadcasting services due to the special circumstances unique to the military setting. However, joint-operation of communication facility by the military and civil users is preferred because this reduces financial burden resulting from separate operation of military satellite. During the Gulf War, U.S. armed forces employed commercial satellites for its military communication. Korea's participation in space technology research is a little bit behind in time, considering its economic scale. In terms of budget, Korea is to spend 5 trillion won for 15 years for the space activities. However, Japan has 2 trillion won annul budget for the same activities. Because the development of space industry during initial fostering period does not apply to profit-making business, government supports are inevitable. All space development programs of other foreign countries are entirely supported by each government, and, only recently, private industry started participating in limited area such as a communication satellite and broadcasting satellite, Particularly, Korea's space industry is in an infant stage, which largely demands government supports. Government support should be in the form of investment or financial contribution, rather than in the form of loan or borrowing. Compared to other advanced countries in space industry, Korea needs more budget and professional research staff. Naturally, for the efficient and systemic space development and for the prevention of overlapping and distraction of power, it is necessary to enact space-related statutes, which would provide dear vision for the Korea space development. Furthermore, the fact that a variety of departments are running their own space development program requires a centralized and single space-industry development system. Prior to discussing how to coordinate or integrate space programs between Agency for Defense Development and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, it is a prerequisite to establish, namely, "Space Operations Center"in the Air Force, which would determine policy and strategy in operating space forces. For the establishment of "Space Operations Center," policy determinations by the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chief of Staff are required. Especially, space surveillance system through using a military surveillance satellite and communication satellite, which would lay foundation for independent defense, shall be established with reference to Japan's space force plan. In order to resolve issues related to MTCR, Air Force would use space-launching vehicle of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute. Moreover, defense budge should be appropriated for using multi-purpose satellite and communication satellite. The Ministry of National Defense needs to appropriate 2.5 trillion won budget for space operations, which amounts to Japan's surveillance satellite operating budges.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.239-261
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• 2011

The cyclicality of productivity has been one of the essential issues in macroeconomics. Since Solow(1957) developed the dominant approach to the measurement of productivity growth, Solow's approach, which assumes the perfect competition, the constant returns to scale, and the full use of input factor has been modified particularly in Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) works. Their researches take account of market power, returns to scale, and variable factor utilization. This paper establishes the empirical model based on Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) models, estimates 4 types of Solow's reidual in manufacturing and 2 service industries over the period 1975:1-2010:4, and analyzes the cyclicality of measured productivity. The result proved the measured productivity to be procyclical in manufacturing industries and electricity and water industry, and in contrast to the Basu's, the variable factor utilization transformed the countercyclicality of measured productivity into its procyclicality in the Korean economy.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.281-290
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• 2020

With the spread of smartphones, services that want to use personalized data are increasing. In particular, healthcare-related services deal with a variety of data, and data visualization techniques are used to effectively show this. As data visualization techniques are used, interactions in visualization are also naturally emphasized. In the PC environment, since the interaction for data visualization is performed with a mouse, various filtering for data is provided. On the other hand, in the case of interaction in a mobile environment, the screen size is small and it is difficult to recognize whether or not the interaction is possible, so that only limited visualization provided by the app can be provided through a button touch method. In order to overcome the limitation of interaction in such a mobile environment, we intend to enable data visualization interactions through conversations with chatbots so that users can check individual data through various visualizations. To do this, it is necessary to convert the user's query into a query and retrieve the result data through the converted query in the database that is storing data periodically. There are many studies currently being done to convert natural language into queries, but research on converting user queries into queries based on visualization has not been done yet. Therefore, in this paper, we will focus on query generation in a situation where a data visualization technique has been determined in advance. Supported interactions are filtering on task x-axis values and comparison between two groups. The test scenario utilized data on the number of steps, and filtering for the x-axis period was shown as a bar graph, and a comparison between the two groups was shown as a line graph. In order to develop a natural language processing model that can receive requested information through visualization, about 15,800 training data were collected through a survey of 1,000 people. As a result of algorithm development and performance evaluation, about 89% accuracy in classification model and 99% accuracy in query generation model was obtained.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.11-18
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• 2004

The on-line games in the past were played by only two persons exchanging data based on one-to-one connections, whereas recent ones (e.g. MMORPG: Massively Multi-player Online Role-playings Game) enable tens of thousands of people to be connected simultaneously. Specifically, Korea has established an excellent network infrastructure that can't be found anywhere in the world. Almost every household has a high-speed Internet access. What made this possible was, in part, high density of population that has accelerated the formation of good Internet infrastructure. However, this rapid increase in the use of on-line games may lead to surging traffics exceeding the limited Internet communication capacity so that the connection to the games is unstable or the server fails. expanding the servers though this measure is very costly could solve this problem. To deal with this problem, the present study proposes the load distribution technology that connects in the form of local clustering the game servers divided by their contents used in each on-line game reduces the loads of specific servers using the load balancer, and enhances performance of sewer for their efficient operation. In this paper, a cluster system is proposed where each Game server in the system has different contents service and loads are distributed efficiently using the game server resource information such as CPU utilization. Game sewers having different contents are mutually connected and managed with a network file system to maintain information consistency required to support resource information updates, deletions, and additions. Simulation studies show that our method performs better than other traditional methods. In terms of response time, our method shows shorter latency than RR (Round Robin) and LC (Least Connection) by about 12%, 10% respectively.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.109-132
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• 2019

Recently, medical accidents related to surgical procedures have increased. In addition, the media reported that some of these accidents were involved in health crimes. Patient-advocate groups have called for mandatory establishment and management of CCTV in operating rooms. There is a lot of discussion among the interested parties, so it is necessary to review the relevant laws and regulations. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of CCTV in operating rooms and to review legislations related to establishment and management of the CCTV in operating rooms. Medical institutions use CCTV for management of facilities and patient safety and install it in operating rooms optionally. The Constitution guarantees the privacy and the privacy of correspondence of every citizen, but it can be limited by the law for public welfare. Currently, however, there is no existing law about establishment and management of the CCTV in operating rooms and it can be defect of legal system. Under the current legislations, it is likely that the Self-determination can be violated due to the characteristic of healthcare provider when CCTV is mandatorily installed in operating room. In addition, the regulations on access and leakage of confidential information known by operator are insufficient. So that, the safety of the visual data might be threatened. Furthermore, unless the period and the place of storage of the visual data are clearly defined, it is highly unlikely to meet the original purpose of patient safety and prevention of medical accidents. This study is meaningful as there is few previous study on this topic although the need for legal review about this is growing and several bills are being proposed. It is expected that the results of this study can be utilized as basic data for enactment or amendment of the laws and regulations about establishment and management of CCTV in operating rooms.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-35
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• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.