• Title/Summary/Keyword: 금융 예측 시스템

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Using GA based Input Selection Method for Artificial Neural Network Modeling Application to Bankruptcy Prediction (유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 인공신경망 모형 최적입력변수의 선정: 부도예측 모형을 중심으로)

  • 홍승현;신경식
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.227-249
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    • 2003
  • Prediction of corporate failure using past financial data is a well-documented topic. Early studies of bankruptcy prediction used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis, logit and probit. Recently, however, numerous studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence such as neural networks can be an alternative methodology for classification problems to which traditional statistical methods have long been applied. In building neural network model, the selection of independent and dependent variables should be approached with great care and should be treated as model construction process. Irrespective of the efficiency of a teaming procedure in terms of convergence, generalization and stability, the ultimate performance of the estimator will depend on the relevance of the selected input variables and the quality of the data used. Approaches developed in statistical methods such as correlation analysis and stepwise selection method are often very useful. These methods, however, may not be the optimal ones for the development of neural network model. In this paper, we propose a genetic algorithms approach to find an optimal or near optimal input variables fur neural network modeling. The proposed approach is demonstrated by applications to bankruptcy prediction modeling. Our experimental results show that this approach increases overall classification accuracy rate significantly.

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Domain Knowledge Incorporated Counterfactual Example-Based Explanation for Bankruptcy Prediction Model (부도예측모형에서 도메인 지식을 통합한 반사실적 예시 기반 설명력 증진 방법)

  • Cho, Soo Hyun;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.307-332
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    • 2022
  • One of the most intensively conducted research areas in business application study is a bankruptcy prediction model, a representative classification problem related to loan lending, investment decision making, and profitability to financial institutions. Many research demonstrated outstanding performance for bankruptcy prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. However, since most machine learning algorithms are "black-box," AI has been identified as a prominent research topic for providing users with an explanation. Although there are many different approaches for explanations, this study focuses on explaining a bankruptcy prediction model using a counterfactual example. Users can obtain desired output from the model by using a counterfactual-based explanation, which provides an alternative case. This study introduces a counterfactual generation technique based on a genetic algorithm (GA) that leverages both domain knowledge (i.e., causal feasibility) and feature importance from a black-box model along with other critical counterfactual variables, including proximity, distribution, and sparsity. The proposed method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively to measure the quality and the validity.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Analysis of the Korean Real Estate Market and Boosting Policies Focusing on Mortgage Loans: Using System Dynamics (주택담보대출 규제 완화에 따른 부동산시장 영향 분석: 시스템다이내믹스 모형 개발)

  • Hwang, Sung-Joo;Park, Moon-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, You-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2010
  • The Korean real estate market currently is experiencing a slowdown due to the global economic crisis which has resulted from subprime mortgage lending practices. In response, the Korean government has enforced various policies, based on intend to deregulate real estate speculation, such as increasing the Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to stimulate housing supply, demand and accompanying housing transactions. However, these policies have appeared to result in deep confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analyses for housing market forecasting particularly those which examine the impact of the international financial crisis on the Korean real estate market have been partial and fragmentary. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate financial market and the causal nexus between market determining factors. Thus, with an integrated perspective and applying a system dynamics methodology, this paper proposes Korean Real Estate and Mortgage Market dynamics models based on the fundamental principles of housing markets, which are determined by supply and demand. As well, the potential effects of the Korean government's deregulation policies are considered by focusing on the main factor of these policies: the mortgage loan.

Mobile RFID efficiency test analysis (모바일 RFID 성능시험분석)

  • Kang, Bae-Keun;Jin, JinYu;Yang, Hae-Sool
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.926-929
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    • 2010
  • 2000년대에 들어서면서 RFID 기술의 중요성이 부각되고 다양한 솔루션이 개발 되었으며 전자, 화폐, 물류관리, 보안시스템 등의 핵심기술로 발전하게 되었다. 우리 생활 전반에 걸쳐서 RFID의 애플리케이션이 확산되고 있으며 응용범위나 파급효과는 급속도로 증가하고 있다. RFID는 위의 예제에서 제시한 것과 같이 유통 물류 부분에 빠르게 확산되고 있으며 의료, 금융, 교통, 환경, 소방, 군사, 건설 등에서 계속적으로 확대 응용되어 새로운 가치와 효율성을 창출하게 될 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구에서는 모바일 RFID 소프트웨어 분야의 기반기술 및 동향을 조사하고 성능시험 시나리오를 구축하여 성능 시험결과를 도출하였다.

Effect of Mobile Devices on the Use Intention and Use of Mobile Banking Service in Myanmar (미얀마에서의 모바일기기 특성이 모바일 뱅킹 서비스 사용의도와 실제 사용에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Myo, Salai Thar Kei;Hwang, Gee-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2017
  • Most banks in Myanmar have begun to provide their services via mobile phones. However, few studies investigated the factors that may help to set mobile services from a customer perspective. So, this study aims to propose and test a conceptual research model to predict the user's intention to use and actual use level of mobile banking service by combining UTAUT and DeLone-Mclean IS model. Data were collected from 206 citizens who had experienced mobile banking in various regions of Myanmar. The study found that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, information quality and service quality influence the user 's intention to adopt mobile banking services which directly affects the user's actual use of them. However, social influence, facilitating condition and system quality don't influence the user's intention. The study results contribute to meeting customer's needs and reducing customer risk in Myanmar's mobile banking industry, suggesting to seamlessly provide the necessary resources like technology improvements, organizational infrastructure and service centers. Another future study are required to include service's security and trust factors so that the service providers could gain their customers' reliability and trust.

전자상거래를 위한 지불 방법 및 보안

  • 김기병;지정권;김형주
    • Communications of the Korean Institute of Information Scientists and Engineers
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 1998
  • 본 고에서는 전자상거래에서의 지불 방법과 전자상거래에서 사용되는 거래정보의 보안기법에 대해 살펴보았다. 전자지불의 유형으로는 전자 대금 이체, 디지털 캐시 및 이의 현실적인 형태인 E-cash등이 있다. 이러한 거래 방법과 더불어 전자상거래 시스템의 보안은 비즈니스 측면에서 매우 중요하다. 이를 보장하기 위해 non-SET 기반으로 대칭적 암호화 기법, 비대칭적 암호화 기법 및 SET을 이용한 암호화 거래 방법을 살펴보았다. 전자상거래 시스템의 구성요소는 구매자, 판매자 및 중개인으로 이루어진다[8]. 전자상거래의 보안에 관한 요소는 다른 학문적인 요소와는 달리 그 실용적인 성격과 파급효과로 인하여 세계 각국의 정부 기관이나 연구소에서 주도권 쟁탈을 위한 노력을 기울이고 있다. 이러한 전자상거래의 요소는 전자상거래의 기술을 연구하고 제시하는 쪽 보다는 현실적인 필요성에 의해 금융기관이나 판매자들에 의해 주도적으로 개발되는 경우가 많다. 컴퓨터와 네트워크의 급속한 발전 속도와 영역의 확장은 앞으로의 전자상거래가 국가나 사회에 어떤 영향을 미칠지를 예측하기 어렵게 한다. 다시 말하면 앞으로 전자상거래가 사회, 경제적 또는 외교적으로 미칠 영향은 매우 크리라 예상된다. 이러한 전자상거래 분야에서 주도권을 유지하기 위해서는 이와 관련된 정부부처, 연구소, 각급 기관 및 업체들이 서로 협력하고 조율하여 국제적인 표준과 보조를 맞추고, 국내 기술과의 접목을 가능하도록 협조와 자원이 필요하다. 전자상거래 관련 보안 및 지불 기술의 확보는 국가 경쟁력 확보 및 차세대 거래 수단으로서의 전자상거래 시장에서 기회를 확보할 수 있는 초석이 될 것이다.

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A Performance Analysis by Adjusting Learning Methods in Stock Price Prediction Model Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 주가예측 모델의 학습방법에 따른 성능분석)

  • Jung, Jongjin;Kim, Jiyeon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2020
  • Many developments have been steadily carried out by researchers with applying knowledge-based expert system or machine learning algorithms to the financial field. In particular, it is now common to perform knowledge based system trading in using stock prices. Recently, deep learning technologies have been applied to real fields of stock trading marketplace as GPU performance and large scaled data have been supported enough. Especially, LSTM has been tried to apply to stock price prediction because of its compatibility for time series data. In this paper, we implement stock price prediction using LSTM. In modeling of LSTM, we propose a fitness combination of model parameters and activation functions for best performance. Specifically, we propose suitable selection methods of initializers of weights and bias, regularizers to avoid over-fitting, activation functions and optimization methods. We also compare model performances according to the different selections of the above important modeling considering factors on the real-world stock price data of global major companies. Finally, our experimental work brings a fitness method of applying LSTM model to stock price prediction.

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy using Simulated Annealing-based Random Fores (시뮬레이티드 어니일링 기반의 랜덤 포레스트를 이용한 기업부도예측)

  • Park, Hoyeon;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 2018
  • Predicting a company's financial bankruptcy is traditionally one of the most crucial forecasting problems in business analytics. In previous studies, prediction models have been proposed by applying or combining statistical and machine learning-based techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent prediction model based on the simulated annealing which is one of the well-known optimization techniques. The simulated annealing is known to have comparable optimization performance to the genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, since there has been little research on the prediction and classification of business decision-making problems using the simulated annealing, it is meaningful to confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in business analytics. In this study, we use the combined model of simulated annealing and machine learning to select the input features of the bankruptcy prediction model. Typical types of combining optimization and machine learning techniques are feature selection, feature weighting, and instance selection. This study proposes a combining model for feature selection, which has been studied the most. In order to confirm the superiority of the proposed model in this study, we apply the real-world financial data of the Korean companies and analyze the results. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the naïve model. Notably, the performance is significantly improved as compared with the traditional decision tree, random forests, artificial neural network, SVM, and logistic regression analysis.

Prediction of KRW/USD exchange rate during the Covid-19 pandemic using SARIMA and ARDL models (SARIMA와 ARDL모형을 활용한 COVID-19 구간별 원/달러 환율 예측)

  • Oh, In-Jeong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.191-209
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    • 2022
  • This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.