• Title/Summary/Keyword: 금융시장

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An Empirical Study on Trading Techniques Using VPIN and High Frequency Data (VPIN과 고빈도 자료를 활용한 거래기법에 관한 실증연구)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung;Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the information effect of KOSPI200 market and KOSPI200 futures market and volume synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN). The data period is 760 days from July 8, 2015 to August 9, 2018, and the intraday trading data is used based on the trading period of the KOSPI 200 Index. The findings of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of regression analysis of the same parallax, when the level of VPIN is high, the return and volatility of KOSPI200 are high. Second, the KOSPI200 returns before and after the VPIN measurement and the return of the KOSPI200 future had a positive relationship with the VPIN. The cumulative returns of KOSPI200 futures were positive for about 15 minutes.Finally, we find that portfolios with high levels of VPIN showed high KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures return. These results confirmed the applicability of VPIN as a trading strategy index. The above results suggest that KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures markets will be able to explore volatility and price changes, and also be useful indicators of financial market risk.

The Unexpected Volatility of Foreigners' Trading Behavior Effects on the Korean Stock Market Volatility (외국인 거래행태의 비기대변동성은 주식수익률의 변동성에 영향을 주는가)

  • Byun, Young tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.593-609
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    • 2012
  • This study is designed to investigate whether the information spillover effect is existed between the foreign investors' unexpected volatility of net purchasing intensity and the volatilities of returns in terms of daily closing stock return, overnight return, and daytime return, before and after financial crisis in Korea. The result of this study shows that there is negative information spillover effect between the foreign investors' unexpected volatility of net purchasing intensity and the volatility of daily closing stock return for time t-1. However, there is an opposite result for time t, showing positive information transmission effect. For the overnight return, the test result provides there is no statistical significance between the foreign investor's unexpected volatility of net purchasing intensity and the volatilities of return. In addition, I found that the information transmission effect is existed between the foreign investor's unexpected volatility of net purchasing intensity and the volatilities of the daytime return for the entire timeline.

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Classification Society Selection Factors for Shipping Companies (해운기업의 선급 결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Jongsik;Lee, Kiwhan;Kim, Myounghee;Choi, Jungsuk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.17-38
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to establish shipping companies' selection factors related to a classification society and to explore the relative importance of each factor using the analytical hierarchy process(AHP) technique. Insufficient research exists on the hierarchial structure of shipping companies' factors of selecting a classification society. The factors are identified and classified into two tiers of major and detailed factors, by referring to the related industrial linkages, prior research related to the determinants, and the process and service delivery of the classification society's activities. The empirical analysis of this study is based on the relative importance of determinants when selecting a classification society, and experts engaged with shipping companies were surveyed using questionnaires. The results of the AHP methodology on the main factors of shipping companies in selecting a classification society are as follows. The relative importance of the main factors was 0.373 for technical and survey services, 0.284 for recognized organizations(RO) functions, 0.177 for cost and 0.167 for market(related industry) expectations. The relative importance of the detailed factors is 0.144 for the ability to respond to a port state control(PSC) inspection, 0.143 for technical services, 0.090 for the requirements of financial institutions/ shippers/shipyards, 0.087 for class maintenance costs, 0.086 for the survey network, 0.085 for surveyor competency, 0.072 for cooperation with IMO and government authorities, 0.067 for recognition for RO, 0.058 for the business power of the classification society, 0.052 for the initial inspection costs, 0.040 for reputation and trustworthiness, 0.038 for the costs related to the class, and 0.037 for connections to related industries.

A Study on the Forecasting Trend of Apartment Prices: Focusing on Government Policy, Economy, Supply and Demand Characteristics (아파트 매매가 추이 예측에 관한 연구: 정부 정책, 경제, 수요·공급 속성을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung-Mok;Choi, Su An;Yu, Su-Han;Kim, Seonghun;Kim, Tae-Jun;Yu, Jong-Pil
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.91-113
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    • 2021
  • Despite the influence of real estate in the Korean asset market, it is not easy to predict market trends, and among them, apartments are not easy to predict because they are both residential spaces and contain investment properties. Factors affecting apartment prices vary and regional characteristics should also be considered. This study was conducted to compare the factors and characteristics that affect apartment prices in Seoul as a whole, 3 Gangnam districts, Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, Geumcheon, Gwanak and Guro districts and to understand the possibility of price prediction based on this. The analysis used machine learning algorithms such as neural networks, CHAID, linear regression, and random forests. The most important factor affecting the average selling price of all apartments in Seoul was the government's policy element, and easing policies such as easing transaction regulations and easing financial regulations were highly influential. In the case of the three Gangnam districts, the policy influence was low, and in the case of Gangnam-gu District, housing supply was the most important factor. On the other hand, 6 mid-lower-level districts saw government policies act as important variables and were commonly influenced by financial regulatory policies.

Industry Analyses on the Research & Development Expenditures for Korean Chaebol Firms (국내 재벌 계열사들의 연구개발비에 대한 재무적 산업효과 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.379-389
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    • 2019
  • The study empirically investigates financial factors that may influence on corporate R&D intensity during the post-era of the global financial turmoil (from 2010 to 2015) to mitigate possible spillover effect associated with the crisis. Concerning the empirical research settings of the study, chaebol firms listed in the KOSPI stock market are used as sample data with adopting various econometric estimation methods to enhance validity of the results. In the first hypothesis test, it is found that there exist inter-industry financial differences in terms of the ratio of R&D expenditure across all the sample years, but the statistical differences may arise from only a few domestic industries beloning to the high-growth sector. Moreover, it is also interesting to identify that, for the high-tech sector, 3 explanatory variables such as R&D intensity in a prior year, firm size and change in cash holdings are proved to be financial factors to discriminate between chaebol firms and their counterparts of non-chaebol firms, whereas a proportion of tangible assets over total assets as well as the former two variables are shown to be significant factors on the R&D intensity for the low-tech sector.

Trade Payable and Corporate Failure: Analysis of Trade Payable Impact according to Company Size through Survival Analysis (매입채무와 기업실패: 생존분석을 응용한 기업규모에 따른 매입채무 영향분석)

  • Kim, Bong-Min;Kim, So Ra
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2021
  • Survival analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in the impact of trade payables on business failure according to the size of the company. A total of 41,781 firms from 1999 to 2019 were analyzed. The analysis period was divided into the entire period and before and after the financial crisis. The trade payable ratio is a proxy variable. The increase in trade payables over the entire period increases the possibility of business failure of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). However, in large firms, a significant relationship between the increase in the trade payable ratio and the possibility of corporate failure could not be confirmed. Second, in SMEs during the sub-periods of 1999-2007 and 2009-2019, it was found that an increase in trade payables acts as a factor that increases the possibility of corporate failure. However, in large corporations, the increase in trade payables in the period from 2009 to 2019 has been shown to reduce the rate of failure. An increase in trade payables is recognized as the active development of business activities or the active use of interest-free debt. Therefore, it was confirmed that the impact of trade payables on corporate failure differs depending on the size of the company.

Prediction of KRW/USD exchange rate during the Covid-19 pandemic using SARIMA and ARDL models (SARIMA와 ARDL모형을 활용한 COVID-19 구간별 원/달러 환율 예측)

  • Oh, In-Jeong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.191-209
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    • 2022
  • This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.

A study of the Effects of Accounting Comparability between Korean firms and Foreign Firms on Foreign Investment under K-IFRS (K-IFRS 도입으로 인한 재무제표의 국제적 비교가능성이 외국인 투자에 미치는 영향)

  • Baek, Jeong-Han;Kwak, Young-Min
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.259-281
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    • 2018
  • Advocates of mandatory IFRS adoption claim that IFRS increase financial statement comparability, which in turn leads to greater cross-border investment(Securities and Exchange Commision, 2008). The notion is that improved financial statement comparability reduces the information acquisition costs of global investors and thereby increase their investment in foreign firms. The purpose of this study is to examine this assertion by examining whether the K-IFRS adoption rusults in improved comparability that leads to increased investment by foreign investment. We also examined whether the relation between comparability and foreign investment has strengthen after adoption of K-IFRS. To achieve the purpose of our study, we measure Korean firms comparability using stock price model, stock return model and cash flow from operation model by Barth et al.(2012). We use both foreign ownership in the end of year and average during the year for dependent variables were to reduce bias. We test our hypothesis using 1,817 firm-year observation of KOSPI firms during the period of our analysis, 2011-2015. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find K-IFRS adoption results in a greater increase in foreign investment in firms with high comparability firms. This result indicate that the adoption of K-IFRS intends to achieve the international accounting convergence as stated in the roadmap and to reduce the Korea Discount.

Strategies for Multilateral Development Banks Utilization to Enhance International Construction Competitiveness (해외건설 수주경쟁력 강화를 위한 다자간개발은행 활용 방안)

  • Sohn, Tae-Hong;Jung, Chang-Goo;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.5D
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 2012
  • Korean construction companies have maintained stable market share based on high technology and cost competitiveness although international construction market has been stalled due to increasing global economy uncertainties. However, Korean construction companies have relied heavily on the general types of projects in Middle East and Asia although the portion of different types of projects such as Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO), Build-Transfer-Lease (BTL), and Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) has been increasing in the market. When delivering huge projects requiring contractors deal with activities from project planning to operation, securing finance sources and profitability is deemed critical. Therefore, Korean construction companies need more attentions on the construction market supported by Multilateral Development Banks. However, Korean construction companies have not utilized effective strategies for the market entry and also government supportive policies are not useful enough to help construction companies. This study aims both to analyze the contract structure of Korean construction companies for presenting critical factors that need to be prepared and to suggest various methods that can be applied to support construction companies that have much interest in the Multilateral Development Banks. According to the results of study, it is important that Korean government provide structural information system, make a specialized organization, prevent over-heating among Korean construction companies, and collaborate with Official Development Agency. In addition, it appeared that the fairness and financial stability of project have recognized main advantages of the Multilateral Development Banks.

Analysis and Forecasting for ICT Convergence Industries (ICT 융합 산업의 현황 및 전망)

  • Jang, Hee S.;Park, Jong T.
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2015
  • The trade balance for the information and communications technology (ICT) industries in 2014 have reached 863 hundred million dollars as the main export products such as smart phone and semi-conductor increase, since the ICT industries have played an important role in economic growth in Korea. Until now, the consistent supporting of government and investment of company have been doing with the growth of ICT industries, as a result, Korea marked as the first in the UN electronic government preparing index, and rank 12 in the network preparing index through the policy of national information and basic plan of inter-industry convergence. However, as the unstable international economic circumstances, ICT industries is faced with the stagnation, and then preemptive development of products and services for ICT convergence industries is needed to continually get definite ICT Korea image. In this paper, the ICT convergence industry is analyzed and forecasted. In specific, the international and domestic market for cloud, 3D convergence, and internet of things is diagnosed. The market for ICT convergence industries is predicted to be 3.6 trillion dollar in the world, and 110 trillion won in domestic. From the analytical results for technology and services development, the preemptive supporting of the technology development and policy for the internet of things and 3D convergence industries is required. In addition to, through the future forecasting by socio-tech matrix method, the policy supporting for the ICT convergence area of healthcare, fintech, artificial intelligence, body platform, and human security is needed.