• Title/Summary/Keyword: 금융시장

Search Result 1,041, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting Online Peer-to-Peer(P2P) Loan Default (인공지능기법을 이용한 온라인 P2P 대출거래의 채무불이행 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Bae, Jae Kwon;Lee, Seung Yeon;Seo, Hee Jin
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.207-224
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this article, an empirical study was conducted by using public dataset from Lending Club Corporation, the largest online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the world. We explore significant predictor variables related to P2P lending default that housing situation, length of employment, average current balance, debt-to-income ratio, loan amount, loan purpose, interest rate, public records, number of finance trades, total credit/credit limit, number of delinquent accounts, number of mortgage accounts, and number of bank card accounts are significant factors to loan funded successful on Lending Club platform. We developed online P2P lending default prediction models using discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, and decision trees (i.e., CART and C5.0) in order to predict P2P loan default. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of P2P lending default prediction models, borrower loan data and credit data used in this study. Empirical results indicated that neural networks outperforms other classifiers such as discriminant analysis, logistic regression, CART, and C5.0. Neural networks always outperforms other classifiers in P2P loan default prediction.

Monetary Policy in a Two-Agent Economy with Debt-Constrained Households (가계부채 제약하의 통화정책: 2주체 거시모형(TANK)에서의 정량적 분석)

  • Jung, Yongseung;Song, SungJu
    • Economic Analysis
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-53
    • /
    • 2019
  • This paper examines monetary policy quantitatively in a two-agent and small-scale New-Keynesian economy with debt-constrained households that cannot smooth their consumption intertemporally and frictionlessly since highly indebted households are not allowed to borrow above a certain debt ceiling in incomplete financial markets without additional risk premiums due to information asymmetry between savers and borrowers. We find that, in the event of cost shocks, the asymmetric responses of borrowing households without, and saving households with, dividend incomes lead to different labor supplies and consumptions over heterogeneous households, and eventually to an extension of the monetary policy transmission channels. The income effect and low elasticity of the labor supply play key roles in such asymmetric responses over heterogeneous households. We also find that the social welfare in a flexible inflation targeting (FIT) monetary policy, in which both the inflation gap and the output gap are considered in an integrated manner when policy-making, is similar to that of the Ramsey optimal monetary policy (ROP), in which the shares of debt-constrained households, as well as all economic states, including both the inflation gap and output gap, are considered comprehensively for policy-making, and that it is greater than that of simple inflation targeting (SIT) monetary policy, in which only the inflation gap is considered mechanically for policy-making. Such social welfare implies that a FIT policy may still work even in an economy with a sizable number of debt-constrained households. Further, the responses of cost shocks to consumption and labor supply are dying out more slowly under FIT and ROP policies than under an SIT policy.

Study on the causality between call rate and exchange rate under global economic crisis (글로벌경제위기에서 콜금리와 환율의 인과관계에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Yang-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.655-660
    • /
    • 2009
  • As the global economic crisis, the Korean foreign exchange market appears unstable with large fluctuations in exchange rate. Inevitably, there is growing attention on price variables such as exchange rate and interest rates and also on corelation between the factors. This is an empirical study on the causality of fluctuation between exchange rate and interest rate in the Korean market under global economic crisis. The fluctuations in won/dollar exchange rate and call rate are described and followed by analysis of lead-lag relationship between the two variables using Cross-correlation function and Granger causality test.

  • PDF

생명보험사 및 연기금의 대체투자에 관한 연구 -사회간접자본 투자를 중심으로 -

  • Han, Deok-Hui
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.163-182
    • /
    • 2006
  • 본 연구는 장기투자자인 생명보험사 및 연기금의 투자다변화 일환으로 장기투자의 성격에 부합하고 안정적이며 높은 수익이 기대되는 대체투자 중 사회간접자본 자산에 대한 투자방안을 연구목적으로 하여 다음의 분석결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 생명보험사와 연기금의 금융부문 수익률과 사회간접자본 투자수익률을 비교한 결과 사회간접자본 투자는 변동성이 큰 주식에 비하여 위험은 낮고 안전자산인 채권에 비해서는 상대적으로 높은 수익률을 나타내었다. 둘째, 생명보험사 및 연기금이 사회간접자본 투자에 참여할 경우 사회간접자본 투자에 대한 정부의 수입보장 및 국내 인프라 사업의 사업수익률 수준과 타기관의 목표수익률 등을 종합적으로 고려할 때 15% 수준의 투자수익률이 적합할 것으로 보인다. 다만 최근 국내 주요 사회간접자본 사업의 투자수익률을 볼 때 국가관리사업과 자체관리사업 모두 투자수익률이 낮아지고 있는 추세이므로 장기적으로 이러한 추세를 반영하여 목표수익률의 재조정이 필요한 것으로 보인다. 셋째, 현실적인 간접투자상품의 한계 및 직접투자시의 비용절감효과 등으로 대규모투자자의 경우 전문성을 확보하여 직접투자방식의 참여를 고려할 수 있으며 중소규모투자자의 경우 시장상황 및 위험을 고려하여 펀드를 조성하여 투자하는 것을 고려할 수 있다. 그리고 중장기적으로는 세계적인 추세에 따라 국내 사회간접자본 간접투자 시장이 활성화되고 규모가 커지게 될 것으로 예상되는 바, 간접투자방식을 적극적으로 검토하여야 할 것이다.

  • PDF

Determinants of Financing Decisions of the KOSDAQ Firms (코스닥 기업의 자본조달 결정요인)

  • Guahk, Se-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.12 no.12
    • /
    • pp.5663-5670
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study performed empirical analyses of the static trade-off theory and the pecking order theory which explain financing behavior of firms. The results of regression analyses using the data of 762 listed non-financing firms on the KOSDAQ market from 2000 to 2010 have shown mixed evidences supporting either the trade-off theory or the pecking order theory. Specifically, as the effective tax rate and the firm size increases, debt ratio increases, which is consistent with the trade-off theory. However as the growth opportunity and the profitability increases, debt ratio decreases, which is consistent with the pecking order theory.

A Methodology for Hedging Equity Linked Warrant Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 주식워런트증권(ELW)의 헤징 방안)

  • Ryu, Jae-Pil;Shin, Hyun-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1091-1098
    • /
    • 2012
  • From the perspective of risk management, financial organization that have issued ELW require an efficient hedging methodology due to recently increased trade volume of ELW. This study presents an ELW hedging methodology using artificial neural network(ANN) to minimize hedging costs. The performance of the presented methodology in this study is examined by analysis utilizing the prices and volatilities of underlying assets, risk free interest rates, and maturities and computational experiments show that the proposed method is superior to existing dynamic delta hedging(DDH) technique in terms of hedging costs ranged from 25% to 250%.

A Study on the Performance Analysis between Conglomerate and Non-conglomerate M&A (다각화 합병과 비다각화 합병간의 성과분석)

  • 김동환;김안생;김종천
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.4 no.4
    • /
    • pp.422-427
    • /
    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study analyzes the effects of M&A between conglomerate and non-conglomerate corporational with 57 samples of firms during the period from 1990 to 1997 right before IMF. financial crisis. These models employed to measure effects of M&A in this paper are both market model and market adjusted return model using test of t-statistics. Results of this article show that negative excess returns are observed for non-conglomerate mergers and positive excess gains are exhibited for conglomerate mergers. This implies that conglomerate mergers are more effective than firm specialization in terms of merger effects.

  • PDF

The Effect of Trust and Distrust on the Purchase Intention at Internet Shopping Malls - Focusing on the Chinese Users - (인터넷 쇼핑몰에서 신뢰와 불신이 구매의도에 미치는 영향 - 중국 인터넷 쇼핑몰 사용자를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Hye-Ryeong;Lee, Jin-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
    • /
    • 2006.05a
    • /
    • pp.103-115
    • /
    • 2006
  • 중국은 세계 무역기구에 가입하면서 세계경제에서 차지하는 위치가 강화되고 디지털 경제체제에 편입되면서 산업구조를 고부가가치 산업으로 개편하고 있다. 동안 상대적으로 외국기업에 대해 폐쇄적이었던 중국의 유통시장은 2006년부터 전면개방이 시작될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 그러나 중국전자상거래 시장에서 정보 기초화와 물류배송 금융체계의 문제는 나날이 안정화되어 온라인 구매환경은 나아지고 있으나, 오히려 해마다 인터넷쇼핑물 구매율의 하락은 온라인 쇼핑몰 상거래에 대한 불신 문제가 그대로 남아있음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 중국의 소비자수준에서의 온라인 구매가 활성화되지 못하는 주요 장애요인으로써 불신(distrust)을 제기하고자 하며 신뢰를 신뢰와 불신의 2차원으로 파악하여 각각의 차원(신뢰와 불신)이 마케팅 성과에 차별적으로 공헌하고 있음을 밝히고자 한다. 본 연구에서 선행변수로 상호작용, 지각된 평판, 정보유용성, 지각된 보안위험, 지각된 거래위험을 설정했으며 매개변수로는 신뢰와 불신을, 결과 변수로는 관계몰입과 구매의도로 구성하였다. 결과에서는 온라인 맥락에서는 신뢰와 불신의 선행요인이 온라인 쇼핑몰에 대한 관계몰입과 구매의도에 서로 차별적으로 공헌한다는 것을 밝혔다. 이는 기존의 신뢰를 2차원으로 구분하여 신뢰와 불신으로 분리하여 관리하는 것이 필요하다는 것을 시사한다고 할 수 있다.

  • PDF

Research Trend of Biometrics (생체인식기술의 연구동향)

  • Kim, Jin-Whan;Cho, Hyuk-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.824-827
    • /
    • 2005
  • The need to be able to identify other individual human beings is fundamental to the security and has been true since the beginning of human history. Physical or behavioral characteristics (finger-scan, face-scan, voice, palm, iris, retina, signature, human DNA, keystroke, vain, gait etc.) of a person are used to authenticate the person. The biometric technologies allow for a greater reliability of authentication as compared with password systems for physical access, network security, e-commerce, and so on. In this paper, we describe various technologies, market analysis, multi-modal system, standardization, privacy issue and future prospect of biometrics.

  • PDF

COVID-19 Pandemic and Cost Stickiness:Focusing on Operating Uncertainty (COVID-19 위기와 원가 하방경직성: 영업 불확실성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Ji Hye
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.22 no.8
    • /
    • pp.339-346
    • /
    • 2022
  • Corona-virus(COVID-19), which has affected the world economy and Korea economy widely since 2020 could have an effect on management future perspectives. Thus this paper investigate whether the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on cost stickiness is contingent on operating uncertainty. By using the sample listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2018 to 2020. I find that COVID-19 increase cost stickiness when sales growth volatility is low. This paper contribute to the literature by providing the empirical evidence which contains that the effect of COVID-19 on cost stickiness varies with operating uncertainty.