• Title/Summary/Keyword: 근사치 추정

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APPROXIMATE ESTIMATION OF RECRUITMENT IN FISH POPULATION UTILIZING STOCK DENSITY AND CATCH (밀도지수와 어획량으로서 수산자원의 가입량을 근사적으로 추정하는 방법)

  • KIM Kee Ju
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.47-60
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    • 1975
  • For the calculation of population parameter and estimation of recruitment of a fish population, an application of multiple regression method was used with some statistical inferences. Then, the differences between the calculated values and the true parameters were discussed. In addition, this method criticized by applying it to the statistical data of a population of bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus of the Indian Ocean. The method was also applied to the available data of a population of Pacific saury, Cololabis saira, to estimate its recuitments. A stock at t year and t+1 year is, $N_{0,\;t+1}=N_{0,\;t}(1-m_t)-C_t+R_{t+1}$ where $N_0$ is the initial number of fish in a given year; C, number o: fish caught; R, number of recruitment; and M, rate of natural mortality. The foregoing equation is $$\phi_{t+1}=\frac{(1-\varrho^{-z}{t+1})Z_t}{(1-\varrho^{-z}t)Z_{t+1}}-\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}\phi_t-a'\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}C_t+a'\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}R_{t+1}......(1)$$ where $\phi$ is CPUE; a', CPUE $(\phi)$ to average stock $(\bar{N})$ in number; Z, total mortality coefficient; and M, natural mortality coefficient. In the equation (1) , the term $(1-\varrho^{-z}t+1)/Z_{t+1}$s almost constant to the variation of effort (X) there fore coefficients $\phi$ and $C_t$, can be calculated, when R is a constant, by applying the method of multiple regression, where $\phi_{t+1}$ is a dependent variable; $\phi_t$ and $C_t$ are independent variables. The values of Mand a' are calculated from the coefficients of $\phi_t$ and $C_t$; and total mortality coefficient (Z), where Z is a'X+M. By substituting M, a', $Z_t$, and $Z_{t+1}$ to the equation (1) recruitment $(R_{t+1})$ can be calculated. In this precess $\phi$ can be substituted by index of stock in number (N'). This operational procedures of the method of multiple regression can be applicable to the data which satisfy the above assumptions, even though the data were collected from any chosen year with similar recruitments, though it were not collected from the consecutive years. Under the condition of varying effort the data with such variation can be treated effectively by this method. The calculated values of M and a' include some deviation from the population parameters. Therefore, the estimated recruitment (R) is a relative value instead of all absolute one. This method of multiple regression is also applicable to the stock density and yield in weight instead of in number. For the data of the bigeye tuna of the Indian Ocean, the values of estimated recruitment (R) calculated from the parameter which is obtained by the present multiple regression method is proportional with an identical fluctuation pattern to the values of those derived from the parameters M and a', which were calculated by Suda (1970) for the same data. Estimated recruitments of Pacific saury of the eastern coast of Korea were calculated by the present multiple regression method. Not only spring recruitment $(1965\~1974)$ but also fall recruitment $(1964\~1973)$ was found to fluctuate in accordance with the fluctuations of stock densities (CPUE) of the same spring and fall, respectively.

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Investigation of the Characteristic Velocity of Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (지형형태학적 순간단위도의 특성속도에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Sang-Dan;Yu, Cheol-Sang;Yun, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.315-330
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    • 2000
  • The GIUH (Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph) is to be applied to the ungauged or insufficiently gauged basins. For tIris purpose, an accurate estimation of the charactenstlc velocity is one very important part, but any proper method for this has not been developed yet. In case that we have enough rainfall and runoff clata, the estimation of the characteristic velocity may be an easy job, but it is out of the purpose of the GIUH. Remindmg that the purpose of GIUH the characterisbc veloclty should be estimated based on the geomorpholog1c analysis and also be snnple for easy apphcation. In tIris research analysis cmd application of the GruH was given to several sub-basins in Wi-stream river basin, Gono, Donggok and Hyoryung. After deriving the characteristic velocity througn a optimizatlOn process with real data, it is compared w1th several velOCIties der1ved from geOlnoI1Jhoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph theory and several other concentration time formulae. The estimated charactenstic velocities using Kerby, Kim, KInematic Wave, and Brasby- Williams formulae found to g1ve the appropriate results. Hmvever, as the Kerby, and the Kinematic Wave require user's decision of the IvIanning's n value, the K1m and the Braby-Williams seem to be more applicable and recommended as characteristic velocity formula.

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Evaluation of Uncertainty Importance Measure for Monotonic Function (단조함수에 대한 불확실성 중요도 측도의 평가)

  • Cho, Jae-Gyeun
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2010
  • In a sensitivity analysis, an uncertainty importance measure is often used to assess how much uncertainty of an output is attributable to the uncertainty of an input, and thus, to identify those inputs whose uncertainties need to be reduced to effectively reduce the uncertainty of output. A function is called monotonic if the output is either increasing or decreasing with respect to any of the inputs. In this paper, for a monotonic function, we propose a method for evaluating the measure which assesses the expected percentage reduction in the variance of output due to ascertaining the value of input. The proposed method can be applied to the case that the output is expressed as linear and nonlinear monotonic functions of inputs, and that the input follows symmetric and asymmetric distributions. In addition, the proposed method provides a stable uncertainty importance of each input by discretizing the distribution of input to the discrete distribution. However, the proposed method is computationally demanding since it is based on Monte Carlo simulation.

Estimation of Rivers Discharge by Probabilistic Velocity Function Considering Hydraulic Characteristics (하천 수리특성을 고려한 확률론적 유속공식에 의한 하천유량 산정)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Lee, Sang Jin;Park, Sang Woo;Oh, Ryun Su
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6B
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    • pp.537-542
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    • 2009
  • To improve stage-discharge curve equation considering water level's function, this study suggested the method that can efficiently compute rivers discharge based on hydraulic characteristics such as river width, area, channel bed slope and entropy concept adopting probabilistic approach. This scheme is proposed to estimate discharge from the velocity formulation based on the entropy function in the equilibrium state derived from the relation between mean and maximum flow velocity. It has been tested using field and laboratory hydraulic data collected from the Alberta university in Canada. As a result it was found that the method proposed in this study was more efficient and accurate comparing with the traditional stage-discharge curve equation.

Chaotic Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall Time Series (카오스를 이용한 일 강우자료의 시간적 분해)

  • Kyoung, Min-Soo;Sivakumar, Bellie;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.959-967
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    • 2008
  • Disaggregation techniques are widely used to transform observed daily rainfall values into hourly ones, which serve as important inputs for flood forecasting purposes. However, an important limitation with most of the existing disaggregation techniques is that they treat the rainfall process as a realization of a stochastic process, thus raising questions on the lack of connection between the structure of the models on one hand and the underlying physics of the rainfall process on the other. The present study introduces a nonlinear deterministic (and specifically chaotic) framework to study the dynamic characteristics of rainfall distributions across different temporal scales (i.e. weights between scales), and thus the possibility of rainfall disaggregation. Rainfall data from the Seoul station (recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration) are considered for the present investigation, and weights between only successively doubled resolutions (i.e., 24-hr to 12-hr, 12-hr to 6-hr, 6-hr to 3-hr) are analyzed. The correlation dimension method is employed to investigate the presence of chaotic behavior in the time series of weights, and a local approximation technique is employed for rainfall disaggregation. The results indicate the presence of chaotic behavior in the dynamics of weights between the successively doubled scales studied. The modeled (disaggregated) rainfall values are found to be in good agreement with the observed ones in their overall matching (e.g. correlation coefficient and low mean square error). While the general trend (rainfall amount and time of occurrence) is clearly captured, an underestimation of the maximum values are found.

Mid-Term Container Forecast for Pusan Port (부산항 컨테이너 물동량의 중간예측)

  • Gu, J.Y.
    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1997
  • The conventional methods of container forecasting is done through regression methods based on GNP growth trends and by other forecasting methods proposed by several authors. However these efforts prove to be inadequate with visible weakness and a more reasonable approach need to be determined. The succeeding sections elaborate the methodology and approach adopted. The results are then compared through a case study involving the forecast figures derived by the Pusan Port Authority and the values obtained by MRCS model introduced in this paper.

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Localization Scheme with Weighted Multiple Rings in Wireless Sensor Networks (무선 센서 네트워크에서 가중 다중 링을 이용한 측위 기법)

  • Ahn, Hong-Beom;Hong, Jin-Pyo
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.409-414
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    • 2010
  • The applications based on geographical location are increasing rapidly in wireless sensor networks (WSN). Recently, various localization algorithms have been proposed but the majority of algorithms rely on the specific hardware to measure the distance from the signal sources. In this paper, we propose the Weighted Multiple Rings Localization(WMRL). We assume that each deployed anchor node may periodically emit the successive beacon signals of the different power level. Then, the beacon signals form the concentric rings depending on their emitted power level, theoretically. The proposed algorithm defines the different weighting factor based on the ratio of each radius of ring. Also, If a sensor node may listen, it can find the innermost ring of the propagated signal for each anchor node. Based on this information, the location of a sensor node is derived by a weighted sum of coordinates of the surrounding anchor nodes. Our proposed algorithm is fully distributed and does not require any additional hardwares and the unreliable distance indications such as RSSI and LQI. Nevertheless, the simulation results show that the WMRL with two rings twice outperforms centroid algorithm. In the case of WMRL with three rings, the accuracy is approximately equal to WCL(Weighted Centroid Localization).

Statistical Optimization of Solid Growth-medium for Rapid and Large Screening of Polysaccharides High-yielding Mycelial Cells of Inonotus obliquus (단백다당체 고생산성의 Inonotus obliquus 균주의 신속 개량을 위한 고체 성장배지의 통계적 최적화)

  • Hong, Hyung-Pyo;Jeong, Yong-Seob;Chun, Gie-Taek
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.142-154
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    • 2010
  • The protein-bound innerpolysaccharides (IPS) produced by suspended mycelial cultures of Inonotus obliquus have promising potentials as an effective antidiabetic as well as an immunostimulating agents. To enhance IPS production, intensive strain improvement process should be carried out using large amount of UV-mutated protoplasts. During the whole strain-screening process, the stage of solid growth-culture was found to be the most time-requiring step, thus preventing rapid screening of high-yielding producers. In order to reduce the cell growth period in the solid growth-stage, therefore, solid growth-medium was optimized using the statistical methods such as (i) Plackett-Burman and fractional factorial designs (FFD) for selecting positive medium components, and (ii) steepest ascent (SAM) and response surface (RSM) methods for determining optimum concentrations of the selected components. By adopting the medium composition recommended by the SAM experiment, significantly higher growth rate was obtained in the solid growth-cultures, as represented by about 41% larger diameter of the cell growth circle and higher mycelial density. Sequential optimization process performed using the RSM experiments finally recommended the medium composition as follows: glucose 25.61g/L, brown rice 12.53 g/L, soytone peptone 12.53 g/L, $MgSO_4$ 5.53 g/L, and agar 20 g/L. It should be noted that this composition was almost similar to the medium combinations determined by the SAM experiment, demonstrating that the SAM was very helpful in finding out the final optimum concentrations. Through the use of this optimized medium, the period for the solid growth-culture could be successfully reduced to about 8 days from the previous 15~20 days, thus enabling large and mass screening of high producers in a relatively short period.

A Study on the Forecasting Model on Market Share of a Retail Facility -Focusing on Extension of Interaction Model- (유통시설의 시장점유율 예측 모델에 관한 연구 -상호작용 모델의 확장을 중심으로)

  • 최민성
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.49-68
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    • 2001
  • In this chapter, we summarize the results on the optimal location selection and present limitation and direction of research. In order to reach the objective, this study selected and tested the interaction model which obtains the value of co-ordinates on location selection through the optimization technique. This study used the original variables in the model, but the results indicated that there is difference in reality. In order to overcome this difference, this study peformed market survey and found the new variables (first data such as price, quality and assortment of goods, and the second data such as aggregate area, and area of shop, and the number of cars in the parking lot). Then this study determined an optimal variable by empirical analysis which compares an actual value of market share in 1988 with the market share yielded in the model. However, this study found the market share in each variables does not reflect a reality due to an assumption of λ-value in the model. In order to improve this, this study performed a sensitivity analysis which adds the λ value from 1.0 to 2.9 marginally. The analyzed result indicated the highest significance with the market share ratio in 1998 at λ of 1.0. Applying the weighted value to a variable from each of the first data and second data yielded the results that more variables from the first data coincided with the realistic rank on sales. Although this study have some limits and improvements, if a marketer uses this extended model, more significant results will be produced.

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Studies on the Distribution of Fisheries Resources by Bottom Trawling in the Yellow Sea (트롤조사에 의한 황해 주요 어족생물의 분포특성에 관한 연구)

  • 신형호;황두진;김용주
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2002
  • Fish distribution characteristics are essential to assess and estimate fisheries resources in a particular area. The primary goal of this study is to determine the distribution characteristics by the bottom trawling in the Yellow Sea west of South Korea. The surveys were carried out between 33$^{\circ}$00'N~37$^{\circ}$00'N latitude and 124$^{\circ}$00'E~126$^{\circ}$00'E longitude at EEZ(Exclusive Economic Zone) of Korea in Yellow Sea on May and August, 1999 and April, 2000. The ships used in this survey were the R/V Chung-kyeong(G/T 300) and R/V Dong-baek(G/T 1,050) of Yeosu National University. The results obtained can be summarized as follows 1. From the trawl data the fisheries resources are seriously decreasing through most of the species(about more 50%) have been appeared only one time at the bottom trawl on April, 2000. The total fish species caught by the trawl net during the 3 times survey were 106 species and a few species(dominant species) of these occupied 50~90% of the quantity of the total quantity by number or by weight. Among the dominant species the tanaka's snailfish was recorded to be the most dominant species in the survey area. The fish species in the Yellow Sea were clustered according to the regions. They clustered in two or three partes to the south-north direction in the spring season and clustered in two parts to the on-off shore direction of the shore in the summer season. Most of the fish caught at the the trawl net with cover-net(30.3mm) were small sized. They were shorter than 15 cm in length and the extruding rate of the cod-end which was 60mm mesh size ranges about 90%. 2. The densities of the number and weight per unit volume derived from the total catches sampled in April, 2000 survey were $1532.2{\times}10^{-6}fish/m^3$ and $39.55{\times}10^{-6}kg/m^3$, respectively. 3. The density variation of fish population between 1999 and 2000 showed a slight tendency to increase.