• Title/Summary/Keyword: 근사신뢰도

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A Combination Method of Unconstrained Handwritten Numerals Recognizers Using Strutural Feature Analyzer (구조적 특징 분석기를 이용한 무제약 필기 숫자 인식기의 결합)

  • Kim, Won-Woo;Paik, Jong-Hyun;Lee, Kwan-Yong;Byun, Hye-Ran;Lee, Yill-Byung
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 1996
  • In this paper,we design a verifier for unconstrained handwritten numerals using structural feature analysis,and use it as a comnination algorithm for multiple recognizers.The existing combination algorithms mainly use learnings,statistical methods,or probabilistic methods without considering structural features of numerals.That is why they cannot recognize some numerals which human can identify clearly.To overcome the shortcomings,we design one-to-one verifiers which compare and analyze the relative structural features between frequently confused numeral pairs,and apply them to combine multiple recongnizers.Structural features for verification consist of contour,direction al chain code,polygonal approximation,and zero crossing number of horizontal/vertical projections. We gained a 97.95% reliability with CENPARMI numeral data,and showed that some misconceived factors generated from typical combination algorithms can be removed.

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Analysis of Stream Discharge Characteristic at Control Point for Runoff Model Application (유출모의를 위한 주요제어지점 유량특성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Lee, Bae-Sung;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Hwang, Man-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.11 s.172
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    • pp.905-914
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    • 2006
  • For an accurate rainfall-runoff simulation in the river basin, not evaluation of runoff model but accurate runoff data are very important. In this study, SSARR model was applied to the Geum River basin and these results are compared with runoff data observed at the Gongju gauging station. The model results didn't good fit the discharge data determined from the rating curve at Gongju gauging station during normal and dry season, especially. For the reliability analysis for the existing rating curve, we observed new stream discharge set from 2003 to 2005. We also estimated long term runoff data from the base flow separation method and defined the hydraulic characteristics. The results show that the new observed stream discharge is similar to the rainfall-runoff model results but existing rating curve seems to be overestimated about 10-20% during normal and dry season. We found that the continuous monitoring and update for the existing rating curve at the gaging station are needed for accurate estimation of runoff data.

Analysis of Uncertainty of Rainfall Frequency Analysis Including Extreme Rainfall Events (극치강우사상을 포함한 강우빈도분석의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong;Park, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.337-351
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    • 2010
  • There is a growing dissatisfaction with use of conventional statistical methods for the prediction of extreme events. Conventional methodology for modeling extreme event consists of adopting an asymptotic model to describe stochastic variation. However asymptotically motivated models remain the centerpiece of our modeling strategy, since without such an asymptotic basis, models have no rational for extrapolation beyond the level of observed data. Also, this asymptotic models ignored or overestimate the uncertainty and finally decrease the reliability of uncertainty. Therefore this article provide the research example of the extreme rainfall event and the methodology to reduce the uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site rainfall frequency analysis. Especially, the GEV distribution and Gumbel distribution which frequently used distribution in the fields of rainfall frequency distribution are used and compared. Also, the results of two distribution are analyzed and compared in the aspect of uncertainty.

Pedestrian-Based Variational Bayesian Self-Calibration of Surveillance Cameras (보행자 기반의 변분 베이지안 감시 카메라 자가 보정)

  • Yim, Jong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.1060-1069
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    • 2019
  • Pedestrian-based camera self-calibration methods are suitable for video surveillance systems since they do not require complex calibration devices or procedures. However, using arbitrary pedestrians as calibration targets may result in poor calibration accuracy due to the unknown height of each pedestrian. To solve this problem in the real surveillance environments, this paper proposes a novel Bayesian approach. By assuming known statistics on the height of pedestrians, we construct a probabilistic model that takes into account uncertainties in both the foot/head locations and the pedestrian heights, using foot-head homology. Since solving the model directly is infeasible, we use variational Bayesian inference, an approximate inference algorithm. Accordingly, this makes it possible to estimate the height of pedestrians and to obtain accurate camera parameters simultaneously. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is robust to noise and provides accurate confidence in the calibration.

Reliability Analysis of Slopes Using ANN-based Limit-state Function (인공신경망 기반의 한계상태함수를 이용한 사면의 신뢰성해석)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun;Byeon, Wi-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2007
  • Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of them are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for integrating commercial finite difference method into probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented. Since the limit-state function cannot be expressed in an explicit form, the ANN-based response surface method is adopted to approximate the limit-state function and the first-, second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are used to calculate the probability of failure. Probabilistic stability assessments for a hypothetical two-layer slope and the Sugar Creek embankment were performed to verify the application potential to the slope stability problems. The examples show the successful implementation and the possibility of the extension of the proposed procedure to the variety of geotechnical engineering problems.

A study of statistical analysis method of monitoring data for freshwater lake water quality management (담수호 수질관리를 위한 측정자료의 통계적 분석방법 연구)

  • Chegal, Sundong;Kim, Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2024
  • As using public monitoring data, analysing a trends of water quality change, establishing a criteria to determine abnormal status and constructing a regression model that can predict Chlorophyll-a, an indicator of eutrophication, was studied. Accordingly, the three freshwater lakes were selected, approximately 20 years of water quality monitoring data were analyzed for periodic changes in water quality each year using regression analysis, and a method for determining abnormalities was presented by the standard deviation at confidence level 95%. By calculating the temporal change rate of Chlorophyll-a from irregular observed data, analyzing correlations between the rate and other water quality items, and constructing regression models, a method to predict changes in Chlorophyll-a was presented. The results of this study are expected to contribute to freshwater lake water quality management as an approximate water quality prediction method using the statistical model.

A study on the accuracy of a numerical iteration for Markov processes by using reliability models (신뢰도 모형을 이용한 마코프 과정의 수치적 반복법의 정확성에 대한 연구)

  • Hyeonah Park;Seongryong Na
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.445-453
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    • 2024
  • For Markov processes whose stationary probabilities are difficult to obtain in the analytical form, approximate solutions can be considered using numerical methods such as a matrix operation method or an iterative calculation method. In this paper we perform the study to verify the accuracy of a numerical iteration formula which calculate the stationary probabilities of Markov chains or processes. Especially, the convergence and accuracy of the numerical method are investigated by using Markov models for system availability. We compare the values of the system availability based on the numerical calculation and those based on the complicated but analytical solutions. We also calculate the iteration numbers necessary for the convergence of the numerical solutions. The accuracy and usefulness of the numerical iterative calculation method can be ascertained through this study.

Stream Discharge Estimation by Runoff Component Analysis on the Control Point (유출성분 분석에 의한 제어지점의 유출량 산정)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Hwang, Man-Ha;Lee, Bae-Sung;Park, Joo-Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.785-789
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    • 2006
  • 유역 수자원의 효율적인 관리 및 배분을 위해서는 세밀한 강우-유출관계의 규명이 무엇보다 중요하다. 이를 위해서는 먼저 하천 유출지점의 정확한 유량정보가 획득되어야 하며, 장기간에 걸쳐 신뢰성 있는 유량자료의 확보는 더욱 중요한 사항이다. 본 연구에서는 하천에서 관측된 유량자료를 장기간(1983년${\sim}$2004년)에 걸친 유출성분으로 분리하는 기법을 활용하여 제어지점의 유출량을 검증하였다. 유량자료를 출구지점의 관측유량$(Q_{ob})$을 회귀수$({\alpha}Q_e)$, 상류유입량$(Q_{up})$ 및 관측강우-유출량$({\beta}Q_{Rain})$의 성분으로 구분하여 산정하는 방식으로 유출량을 추정하였다. 여기서, 회귀수$({\alpha}Q_e)$란 유역 및 하도내 용수이용량의 회귀수, 상류유입량$(Q_{up})$은 상류 유출 제어지점의 관측유량으로 대청댐 방류량, 관측강우-유출량$({\beta}Q_{Rain})$은 유역내 강우에 의한 자연유출량이다. 여기서 사용된 수문기초자료는 대청댐 방류량, 대전 및 청주권 취수량, 강우에 의한 자연유출량, 공주관측유량 등으로 각 성분별로 생성된 일자료를 이용하여 공주지점의 월별, 분기별, 년도별 유출량을 산정하였다. 이 결과는 금강유역에 이미 구축되어있는 SSARR모형을 기반으로 한 RRFS(Rainfall Runoff Forecasting System, 유출예측 시스템)의 결과 및 관측치와 비교되었다. 계산결과 RRFS에 의한 유출량과 대청-공주구간의 유출성분분리에 의한 유출량은 관측값과 전반적으로 근사함을 확인하였으며, 검증지점의 정확한 유출율을 산정할 수 있다면, 관측자료의 연속성 및 신뢰도를 파악하는 척도를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.측결과 있는 대상유역에 대한 적용이 요구된다.-Moment 방법에 의해 추정된 매개변수를 사용한 Power 분포를 적용하였으며 이들 분포의 적합도를 PPCC Test를 사용하여 평가해봄으로써 낙동강 유역에서의 저수시의 유출량 추정에 대한 Power 분포의 적용성을 판단해 보았다. 뿐만 아니라 이와 관련된 수문요소기술을 확보할 수 있을 것이다.역의 물순환 과정을 보다 명확히 규명하고자 노력하였다.으로 추정되었다.면으로의 월류량을 산정하고 유입된 지표유량에 대해서 배수시스템에서의 흐름해석을 수행하였다. 그리고, 침수해석을 위해서는 2차원 침수해석을 위한 DEM기반 침수해석모형을 개발하였고, 건물의 영향을 고려할 수 있도록 구성하였다. 본 연구결과 지표류 유출 해석의 물리적 특성을 잘 반영하며, 도시지역의 복잡한 배수시스템 해석모형과 지표범람 모형을 통합한 모형 개발로 인해 더욱 정교한 도시지역에서의 홍수 범람 해석을 실시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 모형의 개발로 침수상황의 시간별 진행과정을 분석함으로써 도시홍수에 대한 침수위험 지점 파악 및 주민대피지도 구축 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 있을 것으로 판단되었다.4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주식시장에 적합한 거래전략은 반전거래전략이고, 이 전략의 유용성은 투자자가 설정한 투자기간보다 더욱 긴

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Overpressure prediction of the Efomeh field using synthetic data, onshore Niger Delta, Nigeria (합성탄성파 기록을 이용한 나이지리아의 나이저 삼각주 해안 에포메(Efomeh) 지역의 이상고압 예측)

  • Omolaiye, Gabriel Efomeh;Ojo, John Sunday;Oladapo, Michael Ilesanmi;Ayolabi, Elijah A.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2011
  • For effective and accurate prediction of overpressure in the Efomeh field, located in the Niger delta basin of Nigeria, integrated seismic and borehole analyses were undertaken. Normal and abnormal pore pressure zones were delineated based on the principle of normal and deviation from normal velocity trends. The transition between the two trends signifies the top of overpressure. The overpressure tops were picked at regular intervals from seismic data using interval velocities obtained by applying Dix's approximation. The accuracy of the predicted overpressure zone was confirmed from the sonic velocity data of the Efomeh 01 well. The variation to the depth of overpressure between the predicted and observed values was less than 10mat the Efomeh 01 well location, with confidence of over 99 per cent. The depth map generated shows that the depth distribution to the top of the overpressure zone of the Efomeh field falls within the sub-sea depth range of 2655${\pm}$2m (2550 ms) to 3720${\pm}$2m (2900 ms). This depth conforms to thick marine shales using the Efomeh 01 composite log. The lower part of the Agbada Formation within the Efomeh field is overpressured and the depth of the top of the overpressure does not follow any time-stratigraphic boundary across the field. Prediction of the top of the overpressure zone within the Efomeh field for potential wells that will total depth beyond 2440m sub-sea is very important for safer drilling practice as well as the prevention of lost circulation.

Estimation of Hydrodynamic Derivatives and Dynamic Stability for Submarine Using Captive Model Test (구속모형시험을 이용한 잠수함의 동유체력 계수 추정 및 동안정성 평가)

  • Jeong, Jae-Hun;Ok, Ji-Hun;Lee, Chi-Seung;Lee, Jae-Myung;Lee, Seung-Keon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.173-178
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    • 2015
  • In these days, the world has been increasing the development of various underwater vehicles such as ROVs (Remotely operated underwater vehicles) and AUVs (Autonomous underwater vehicles). And the importance of submarine's maneuverability is especially being emphasized. Therefore, accurate values of the derivatives in equations of motion are required to control motion of the submarines. The aims of the present study are to experimentally derive Hydrodynamic derivatives derived by the vertical planar motion mechanism (VPMM) model test, and to estimate vertical dynamic stability was estimated by using the linear hydrodynamic derivatives, the hydrodynamic derivatives of the submarine, which have a high propriety, were provided by using the fourier analysis of measured forces and moments. Furthermore it is confirmed that the experimental derivatives shows well agreement with the theoretical estimations, and the dynamic stability of the submarine was estimated as a good state, which implies that the value is greater than zero.