• Title/Summary/Keyword: 국지적 상관관계 분석

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Generation of the bias-corrected satellite precipitation based on machine learning using multiple satellite precipitation products (다중 위성 강수자료를 이용한 머신러닝 기반 최적 위성 강수자료 생성)

  • Jung, Sung Ho;Nguyen, Van Giang;Kim, Young Hun;Lee, Gi Ha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.40-40
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    • 2021
  • 수재해 방지를 위한 수문해석 모형에서 정량적인 강수자료의 역할은 매우 중요하다. 최근에는 기후변화로 인한 국지성 집중호우 등 돌발 강수의 빈도가 증가하고 있어 지상에 설치된 우량계보다 시·공간적 변동성을 반영할 수 있는 격자형 위성 강수자료의 활용성이 커지고 있다. 하지만 위성강수자료는 관측 시에 대기의 상태 또는 위성별 관측 센서, 공간적 스케일 차이 등에 의해 실제 내린 강수와의 편의가 존재한다. 이를 해결하기 위해 지점 강수자료를 이용한 통계적, 지형정보학적 상세화 기법이 적용되고 있으나, 대부분의 연구에서 강수자료의 양적 보정만을 목적으로 수행되었다. 본 연구에서는 머신러닝 기반의 랜덤포레스트(random forest) 모델을 사용하여 다중위성 강수자료(CHIRPSv2, CMORPH, GSMaP, TRMMv7)와 기상청에서 제공하는 AWS, ASOS 지점 강수를 사용하여 최적 위성강수자료를 생성 후 각 위성강수자료와 비교·분석하였다. 2003년에서 2017년까지의 각 위성강수자료를 수집하여 같은 공간 스케일로 전처리한 뒤 모델에 입력하였으며 AWS 강수자료는 훈련, ASOS 강수자료는 검증에 이용되었다. 그 결과, 생성된 최적 위성강수자료는 각 위성강수자료보다 지점강수와의 편의가 줄고 높은 상관관계를 나타내고 있다. 이는 앞으로 사용될 위성강수자료의 시·공간적 보정 및 단기예측에 활용할 수 있으며, 특히 원격탐사자료의 의존도가 높은 미계측 대유역 수문해석에 정량적인 강수자료를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Development of Real-time Rainfall Sensor Rainfall Estimation Technique using Optima Rainfall Intensity Technique (Optima Rainfall Intensity 기법을 이용한 실시간 강우센서 강우 산정기법 개발)

  • Lee, Byung Hun;Hwang, Sung Jin;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.429-429
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    • 2019
  • 최근 들어 이상기후 등 다양한 환경적 요인으로 인해 국지적이고 집중적인 호우가 빈발하고 있으며 도로상의 교통체증과 도로재해가 사회적으로 큰 문제가 되고 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 실시간, 단기간 이동성 강우정보 기술과 도로 기상정보를 활용할 수 있는 방법에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구는 차량의 AW(AutoWiping) 기능을 위해 장착된 강우센서를 이용하여 강우정보를 생산하는 기술을 개발하고자 하였다. 강우센서는 총 4개의 채널로 이루어져있고, 초당 250개의 광신호 데이터를 수집하며, 1시간이면 약 360만 개의 데이터가 생산되게 된다. 5단계의 인공강우를 재현하여 실내 인공강우실험을 실시하고 이를 통해 강우센서 데이터와 강우량과의 상관성을 W-S-R관계식으로 정의하였다. 실내실험데이터와 비교하여 외부환경 및 데이터 생성조건이 다른 실외 데이터의 누적값을 계산하기 위해 Threshold Map 방식을 개발하였다. 강우센서에서 생산되는 대량의 데이터를 이용하여 실시간으로 정확한 강우정보를 생산하기 위해 빅 데이터 처리기법을 사용하여 계산된 실내 데이터의 Threshold를 강우강도 및 채널에 따라 평균값을 계산하고 $4{\times}5$ Threshold Map(4 = 채널, 5 = 강우정보 사상)을 생성하였고 강우센서 기반의 강우정보 생산에 적합한 빅데이터 처리기법을 선정하기 위하여 빅데이터 처리기법 중 Gradient Descent와 Optima Rainfall Intensity을 적용하여 분석하고 결과를 지상 관측강우와 비교검증을 하였다. 이 결과 Optima Rainfall Intensity의 적합도를 검증하였고 실시간으로 관측한 8개 강우사상을 대상으로 강우센서 강우를 생산하였다.

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The Spatial Mismatch between Population Ageing and the Level of Public Welfare Service (인구 고령화와 공공서비스 수준 간의 공간적 불일치에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Changhwan;Cho, Deokho
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.286-299
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    • 2016
  • The increase of elderly population is inevitable a universal trend in developed countries. The Korea also followed this tendency. Especially the elderly population in Korea has been rapidly increasing since the 1990s. The rural population is aging more rapidly than the urban one because younger generations move into the urban area, due to better jobs and children education's opportunities. However, the majority of studies on population ageing are focused on the urban area rather than the rural ones. Rural areas also have been excluded as a priority of the national welfare policy for the elderly people. This paper tries to analyze the population ageing among regions and to identify the regional disparity between the elderly people and the level of public services in the rural area. Based upon these results, this study notes some policy alternatives for the improvement of quality of life of the rural elderly. It also suggests on the suitable location of public service facilities in the rural areas.

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Inundation Analysis of Agricultural Land considering Climate Change and Cultivation Environment Change (기후변화 및 재배환경 변화를 고려한 농경지 침수 분석 연구)

  • Cho, Hyungon;Jeong, Seok Je;Lee, Jaenam;An, Hyunuk;Choi, Kyung Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.242-242
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    • 2021
  • 지구온난화에 의해 야기된 기후변화로 인하여 최근 국지성 집중호우의 발생 빈도와 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 또한 기온, 강수량 등의 변화로 농경지 재배작물과 시설재배와 같은 재배방법의 변화 등 농경지의 재배환경이 빠르게 변화하고 있다. 이러한 극한기상의 발생 빈도 및 강도의 증가와 농경지 재배환경의 변화는 홍수로 인한 하천수 범람, 지하수위 상승, 배수불량, 도달시간의 감소 등 저지대 재배지 및 농경지에서의 침수 위험을 증가 시키는 원인이다. 이로 인해, 매년 농경지 침수로 인하여 많은 농가들이 피해를 겪고 있으며 피해 규모와 빈도 또한 증가하고 있는 추세를 보이고 있다. 따라서 농경지 침수 피해 저감을 위하여 다양한 관계기관과 연구자들이 배수개선사업 및 침수 예측 및 피해 저감을 위한 연구를 수행하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 및 재배환경의 변화가 농경지 침수에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 기상청 종관기상관측장비(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측장비(AWS)의 지점 강수량 자료를 수집하고 기후변화의 변동 특성을 분석하였다. 또한 과거 농경지 재배 현황 및 침수 피해 발생 자료를 수집하여 농경지 재배환경의 변화와 농경지 침수 피해를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서 수행된 기후변화 및 농경지 재배환경 변화 등 복합적인 요인에 의해 발생하는 농경지 침수 피해에 대한 분석을 통하여 추후 기후변화 및 재배환경 변화를 고려한 배수시설물의 효율적인 운영을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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A study on the asperity degradation of rock joint surfaces using rock-like material specimens (유사 암석 시편을 사용한 암석 절리면 돌출부 손상 연구)

  • Hong, Eun-Soo;Kwon, Tae-Hyuk;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2009
  • Image analyses for sheared joint specimens are performed to study asperity degradation characteristics with respect to the roughness mobilization of rock joints. Four different types of joint specimens, which are made of high-strength gypsum materials, are prepared by replicating the three-dimensional roughness of rock joints. About twenty jointed rock shear tests are performed at various normal stress levels. The characteristic and scale of asperity degradation on the sheared joint specimens are analyzed using the digital image analysis technique. The results show that the asperity degradation characteristic mainly depends on the normal stress level and can be defined by asperity failure and wear. The asperity degradation develops significantly around the peak shear displacement and the average amount of degraded asperities remains constant with further displacement because of new degradation of small scale asperities. The shear strength results using high-strength gypsum materials can not fully represent physical properties of each mineral particles of asperities on the natural rock joint surface. However the results of this quantitative estimation for the relationship between the peak shear displacement and the asperity degradation suggest that the characterization of asperity degradation provides an important insight into mechanical characteristics and shear models of rock joints.

Characteristics of Rainfall and Landslides according to the Geological Condition (지질조건에 따른 강우와 산사태의 특성분석)

  • Kim Kyeong-Su;Song Young-Suk;Cho Yong-Chan;Kim Won-Young;Jeong Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.16 no.2 s.48
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    • pp.201-214
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    • 2006
  • To study the relationship between rainfall conditions and landslides according to a geological condition in land-slides areas such asJangheung Kyounggi, Sangju and Pohang Kyoungbuk, the data of rainfall and landslides are investigated and analyzed. Many landslides occurred at these areas because of the heavy rainfall in two or four days of the summer 1998. The data of rainfall are collected in observatories within a 50km radius from landslides occurrence areas, and the data of landslides are investigated directly in landslides areas. The data of rainfall are the accumulative rainfall and the rainfall intensity, and the data of landslides are the occurrence frequency considering the geological condition. These data are analyzed statistically to know the relationship the rainfall and landslides. The landslides are concentrated in the heavy rainfall area from the analysis of these data. It knows that the land-slides are triggered by the heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, the rainfall factors such as the accumulative rainfall, the rain-fall intensity and the dropping time are different in each landslides area, and the shape and frequency of landslides are different respectively. The landslides have occurred in the area of high accumulative rainfall, while the land-slides have not occurred around that area. Therefore, the rainfall is very important factor induced by the landslides, and the accumulative rainfall is really related to the frequency of landslides.

Spatial Patterns of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Seoul (도시 홍수 취약성의 공간적 분포 - 서울 지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jisoo;Sung, Hyo Hyun;Choi, Gwangyong
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.615-626
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    • 2013
  • In this study, spatial patterns of the urban flood vulnerability index in Seoul are examined by considering climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability associated with floodings for recent 5 year (2006~2010) period by the smallest administrative unit called Dong. According to the results of correlation analyses based on the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)'s vulnerability model, among many variables associated with urban flooding, rainwater tank capacity, 1-day maximum precipitation and flood pumping station capacity have statistically-significant, and relatively-high correlations with the number of flood damage in Seoul. The flood vulnerability map demonstrates that the extensive areas along Anyang and Joongnang streams show relatively high flood vulnerability in Seoul due to high sensitivity. Especially in case of Joongnang stream areas, climatic factors also contribute to the increase of flood vulnerability. At local scales, several Dong areas in Gangdong-gu and Songpa-gu also show high flood vulnerability due to low adaptability, while those in Gangnam-gu do due to high sensibility and climate factor such as extreme rainfall events. These results derived from the flood vulnerability map by Dong unit can be utilized as primary data in establishing the adaptation, management and proactive policies for flooding prevention within the urban areas in more detail.

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Analyzing the Driving Forces for the Change of Urban Green Spaces in Daegu with Logistic Regression and Geographical Detector (로지스틱 회귀분석과 지리 탐색기를 이용한 대구시 녹지 변화의 동인 분석)

  • Seo, Hyun-Jin;Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.403-419
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the forces to drive the change of urban green spaces in Daegu from 1989 to 2009. First, the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in the past 20 years were spatially identified by performing the hot spots analysis for the cell-based spatial metrics quantifying the size and diversity of green spaces. Next, seven drivers such as slope, distance to roads, land price, population density, ratios of residential, commercial, and industrial areas were selected based on the previous studies and the direction of the association between the loss and fragmentation of green spaces and seven drivers was analyzed with the stepwise logistic regression. Finally, the relative importance of the seven drivers and their interactions in the past 20 years were analyzed with the geographical detector. The results show that the loss of green spaces was concentrated on a part of the Anshim housing development district from 1989 to 2009 and green spaces were highly fragmented around the housing development districts such as Seongseo, Anshim, Dalseong-gun and Chilgok. The forces to drive the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in these areas were different at the administrative levels, but the drivers such as slope and ratios of residential and industrial areas were commonly significant. These drivers were positively correlated with largest patch index(LPI) quantifying the loss of green spaces while they were negatively correlated with Shannon's diversity index(SHDI) measuring the fragmentation of green spaces. In other words, the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu appeared around such regions with lower slope and lower ratios of residential and industrial areas. The relative importance of drivers for LPI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and ratio of commercial area in descending order whereas that of drivers for SHDI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and distance to roads in descending order. Also, the interaction between slope and ratio of residential area had a great impact on LPI and SHDI. The ratio of industrial area was a single driver to most significantly explain the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu in the past 20 years. The interaction between slope and ratio of residential area was greater than the independent influence of a single driver. This study will provide the base data to build a sustainable urban green policy for the city of Daegu in the near future.

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Analysis of Building Vulnerabilities to Typhoon Disaster Based on Damage Loss Data (태풍 재해에 대한 건물 취약성의 피해손실 데이터 기반 분석)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 2019
  • Typhoons can cause significant financial damage worldwide. For this reason, states, local governments and insurance companies attempt to quantify and mitigate the financial risks related to these natural disasters by developing a typhoon risk assessment model. As such, the importance of typhoon risk assessment models is increasing, and it is also important to reflect local vulnerabilities to enable sophisticated assessments. Although a practical study of economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified essential risk indicators, comprehensive studies covering the correlation between vulnerability and economic loss are still needed. The purpose of this study is to identify typhoon damage indicators and to develop evaluation indicators for typhoon damage prediction functions, utilizing the loses from Typhoon Maemi as data. This study analyzes actual loss records of Typhoon Maemi provided by local insurance companies to prepare for a scenario of maximum losses. To create a vulnerability function, the authors used the wind speed and distance from the coast and the total value of property, construction type, floors, and underground floor indicators. The results and metrics of this study provide practical guidelines for government agencies and insurance companies in developing vulnerability functions that reflect the actual financial losses and regional vulnerabilities of buildings.

Numerical Modeling of Shear Heating in 2D Elastoplastic Extensional Lithosphere using COMSOL Multiphysics® (콤솔 멀티피직스를 이용한 2차원 탄소성 인장 암석권 모형에서 발생하는 전단열에 관한 수치 모사 연구)

  • Jo, Taehwan;So, Byung-Dal
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2020
  • In the development of geodynamic structures such as subduction and rift zones, a weakening mechanism is essential for localized weak zone formation in the lithosphere. Shear heating, a weakening mechanism, generates short-wavelength temperature elevation in the lithosphere; the increased temperature can reduce lithospheric strength and promote its breakup. A two-dimensional elastoplastic extensional basin model was used to conduct benchmarking based on previous numerical simulation studies to quantitatively analyze shear heating. The amount of shear heating was investigated by controlling the yield strength, extensional velocity, and strain- and temperature-dependent weakening. In the absence of the weakening mechanism, the higher yield strength and extensional velocity led to more vigorous shear heating. The reference model with a 100-MPa yield strength and 2-cm/year extension showed a temperature increase of ~ 50 K when the bulk extension was 20 km (i.e., 0.025 strain). However, in the yield-strength weakening mechanism, depending on the plastic strain and temperature, more efficient weakening induced stronger shear heating, which indicates positive feedback between the weakening mechanism and the shear heating. The rate of shear heating rapidly increased at the initial stage of deformation, and the rate decreased by 80% as the lithosphere weakened. This suggests that shear heating with the weakening mechanism can significantly influence the strength of relatively undamaged lithosphere.