• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.51-68
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to review China's perception on the U.S. power after the global financial crisis. Although economic power of U.S. was declined by the global financial crisis, U.S. hegemony in the international order still maintains. Gap of national power between U.S. and China may be narrow because of decline of U.S. economic power. It can be predicted China will push a policy that secures an initiative of reform in the global monetary system and is going to take a more cooperative policy without U.S. hegemony power harming China's core interests.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.79-104
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• 2016

This paper investigates the impact and behavior of foreign equity investment in Asian emerging economies during the 2007-2008 and the 2010-2012 global financial crises in terms of volatility and return. The empirical results indicate that foreign investors show positive feedback trading behavior in the sample countries. We find evidence that foreign investors' net selling behavior significantly increases market volatility in most countries.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.62-84
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• 2010

Accurate forecasting of volatility is of considerable interest in financial volatility research, particularly in regard to portfolio allocation, option pricing and risk management because volatility is equal to market risk. So, we attempted to delineate a model with good ability to forecast and identified stylized features of volatility, with a focus on volatility persistence or long memory in the Australian futures market. In this context, we assessed the long-memory property in the volatility of index futures contracts using three conditional volatility models, namely the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. We found that the FIGARCH model better captures the long-memory property than do the GARCH and IGARCH models. Additionally, we found that the FIGARCH model provides superior performance in one-day-ahead volatility forecasts. As discussed in this paper, the FIGARCH model should prove a useful technique in forecasting the long-memory volatility in the Australian index futures market.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.10
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• pp.4359-4368
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• 2011

Among several macroeconomic missteps blamed for the recent global financial crisis including the social problems of income distribution and the lack of proper financial remedies, two of them have received particular attention: the global BOP(Balance of Payment) imbalance and the misguided monetary policy. Such BOP imbalance was blamed for massive foreign exchange investment flows from Asia into the U.S., triggering the financial and real estate bubble in America. The latter refers to the excessively loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which pushed financial institutions and households into reckless investment behavior in search of higher returns. Given the abuse of certain innovative financial techniques and new investment instruments that have been created in recent decades, both collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS) enjoyed a symbiotic and toxic relationship prior to the financial crisis This paper is organized as follows: The first section analyzes the real causes of the recent financial crisis. The second details the role of CDOs and CDS. Then, to identify key determinants of the CDS spreads in an emerging capital market, the sample data of major Korean firms' CDS spreads are used to estimate the risk premium by utilizing the multiple regression analysis. The empirical test result indicates that Korean 3-year treasury bond rate(TYIELD), market to book value ratio(MV/BV), and assets size(INASSETS) are shown to demonstrate statistically significant influences on the changes of the CDS premium for sample firms.

• Korea Petroleum Association Journal
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• no.10 s.200
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• pp.98-101
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• 1997

태국을 비롯한 동남아 국가들은 90년대 후반 이후 경제성장 둔화, 경상수지 악화, 금융제도 불안 등으로 기초경제여건이 취약해진 가운데 통화의 고평가 심리가 팽배해지면서 지난 7월 통화가치가 급락하는 외환위기를 겪었음 이번의 외환위기는 금융규제완화 및 자본 자유화로 금융의 범세계화가 진전되면서 한 국가의 외환위기가 인접국으로 신속히 확산되는 동조화 현상 (Spill-over effect)이 보편화되고 있음을 보여주었음. 그러나 우리나라의 경우 기초경제여건, 시장개방도, 원화의 국제화 정도 등을 감안할 때 최근의 동남아 외환위기가 국내로 파급될 가능성은 없는 것으로 평가됨. 외환위기를 예방하기 위하여는 국제수지 등 기초경제여건의 개선과 함께 탄력적인 환율운용, 적정 외환보유액의 확보 및 중앙은행간 협력업체의 강화 등을 통해 급격한 외화유출입에 대한 대응능력을 높여 나가야 할 것임

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.67-88
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• 2014

The Chinese stock market has increasingly strengthened its market power on other stock markets due to rapid growth of its economy. In this context, this study investigated return spillover effect as well as asymmetric volatility spillover effect using a VAR-Bivariate EGARCH model among stock markets(China, US, Japan, Korea). Furthermore, we conjectured the impact of 2008 global financial crisis on the spillover effect of the Chinese stock market. In our empirical results, the Chinese stock market has a weak return spillover effect to other markets(US, Japan, Korea), but after the global financial crisis, its return spillover effect becomes stronger among other stock markets. In addition, the Chinese stock market have strengthened its asymmetric volatility spillover effect on other stock markets after the Global financial crisis. As a result, the Chinese stock market has an strong influence on other stock markets.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.55-76
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• 2010

This paper analyses interaction between yen/dollar exchange rates and NIKKEI index using bivariate GJR-GARCH(1,1) model. The data employed for the study is daily data series for the period of Jan. 4, 1995 through Aug. 30, 2009. One of main findings is that market inefficiency appears in the periods of financial crisis. Second, the volatility of exchange rates and stock returns has more increased in the wake of the volatility shock of the previous period during financial crisis than during non-financial crisis. Third, interestingly, the asymmetric volatility shock by bad news in those markets is bigger in financial crisis period than in non financial crisis. Fourth, in the period of current global financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgage crisis in U.S, volatility shock at the previous period is bigger than that of Asian financial crisis that happened in 1997. Lastly, the correlation between both returns of exchange rates and stock prices turns up positive according to the empirical estimation. This result may come from the fact that Japanese stock market does not have much attraction for international financial investment compared to stock markets of neighbouring countries like China, Korea and so on, while real sector's contribution to the economy is considered more importantly.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.20 no.3_4
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• pp.3-62
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• 1998

본 논문은 한국 외환위기의 발생메커니즘이 투기적 공격모형에 의하여 설명될 수 없음을 주장한다. 나아가 한국의 외환위기는 국제금용시장에서의 인출사태(banking panic)로 설명되어야 함을 주장한다. 이들 주장의 주된 근거는 97년 11월 자본유출을 주도한 요소가 외화채권인출이었다는 사실이다. 한편 본 논문은 국제금융 시장에서의 인출사태 발생에 필요한 조건을 (1) 잠재적 외환유동성 부족, (2) 인출사태 촉발요인의 등장, (3) 인출사태에 대한 대비장치 부재 등의 세 가지로 규정하고, 잠재적 외환유동성 부족의 조건은 96년 거시정책의 실패 및 94~96년간의 금융기관 해외지점의 급팽창에 의하여 마련되었음을 보인다. 또한 인출사태에 대한 대비장치의 부재가 실재(實在)하였음을 인출사태 진정과 관련된 IMF구제금융의 무력(無力)을 보임으로써 실증한다. 그러나 인출사태 촉발요인에 대해서는 최종결론을 유보하고 있다. 본 논문은 촉발요인에 대한 논란이 내부요인설, 외부충격설, 자기실현설 등 세 가지가 있음을 설명하고, 이중 외부충격으로 논의되고 있는 일본금융기관의 역할설(役割說)에 대한 부정적 증거를 제시한다. 그러나 제시된 증거가 모든 가능성을 배제할 수 있는 성격의 것이 아니므로, 촉발요인에 대한 구명은 향후 연구과제로 남겨져 있다.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.289-310
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• 2013

In the past, an policy measures for the promotion of the export has actively used trade finance, but also in its effect there is no doubt. However, in 2008 the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered the global financial crisis. As a result, the need to effectively manage liquidity risk posed, and was a debut for Basel III. Focusing on trade finance banks are being made. Domestic commercial banks have not been able not utilize various trade finance techniques. In these situations, the introduction of Basel III can discourage trade finance. Therefore, responses should be prepared for it. Therefore, this study analyzes the status of trade finance system. And international regulation of the financial market are investigated for changes. Based on this, the development direction of Korea's trade finance is proposed.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.1-20
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• 2017

This study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between international capital flows and won exchange rate to the major currency in Korea. As the results of Granger causality test, international capital flows Granger-cause currency rate volatility in the short term. However, over time, won exchange rate volatility Granger-cause international capital flows in Korea. According to the results by period divided based on 2008 financial crisis, international capital flows have the significant effects on won-dollar exchange rate volatility before 2008 crisis although currency rate volatility Granger-cause international capital flows after the crisis. As the results of impulse-response function of the basis of VAR, foreign exchange rate volatility has no connection with international capital flows before the crisis while it doesn't after. After the crisis, currency rate volatility has promoted international capital flows, while its influence diminishes as time passes. As these results, the uncertainty of foreign exchange market tend to influence the international capital flows rather than vice versa in Korea. Thus, it would be a more effective policy to control the uncertainty of market than the direct restrictions international capital flows.