• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.137-163
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to examine the trend of real earnings for TANF leavers. Using administrative data in Wisconsin, this study tracks the 1998 TANF leavers over 7 years. Based on the cyclicality of real wage hypothesis, this study finds: First, although the average real quarterly earnings of TANF leavers have remained stable since their exits, there are substantial labor mobility among TANF leavers. Second, the panel data analysis shows that the real earnings of TANF leavers are significantly associated with local labor market conditions, which supports the hypothesis on the cyclicality of real wages. This study has policy implications that labor market conditions matter for the economic well-being of TANF leavers and the labor demand policies are needed for the economic security of TANF leavers after the exit.