• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.835-845
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• 2013

Travel-time is considered the most typical and preferred traffic information for intelligent transportation systems(ITS). This paper proposes a real-time travel-time prediction method for a national highway. In this paper, the K-nearest neighbor(KNN) method is used for travel time prediction. The KNN method (a nonparametric method) is appropriate for a real-time traffic management system because the method needs no additional assumptions or parameter calibration. The performances of various models are compared based on mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and coefficient of variation(CV). In real application, the analysis of real traffic data collected from Korean national highways indicates that the proposed model outperforms other prediction models such as the historical average model and the Kalman filter model. It is expected to improve travel-time reliability by flexibly using travel-time from the proposed model with travel-time from the interval detectors.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.248-250
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• 2008

This paper proposes a prediction method to prevent traffic accident and reduce to vehicle waiting time using neural network. Computer simulation results proved reducing average vehicle waiting time which proposed coordinating green time better than electro-sensitive traffic light system dose not consider coordinating green time. Moreover, we present neural network approach for traffic accident prediction with unnormalized (actual or original collected) data. This approach is not consider the maximum value of data and possible use the network without normalizing but the predictive accuracy is better. Also, the unnormalized method shows better predictive accuracy than the normalized method given by maximum value. Therefore, we can make the best use of this model in software reliability prediction using unnormalized data. Computer simulation results proved reducing traffic accident waiting time which proposed neural network better than conventional system dosen't consider neural network.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2010

Predictive information on the freeway incident impacts can be a critical criterion in selecting travel options for users and in operating transportation system for operators. Provided properly, users can select time-effective route and operators can effectively run the system efficiently. In this study, a model is proposed to predict freeway incident impacts. The predictive model for incident impacts is based on short-term prediction. The proposed models are examined using MARE. The analysis results suggest that the models are accurate enough to be deployed in a real-world. The development of microscopic models to predict incident effects is expected to help minimize traffic delay and mitigate related social costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.169-175
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• 2004

This paper develops a dynamic travel time prediction model for ATIS in a national highway. While there have been many research on travel time prediction, none of them is for national highway in Korea. The study uses AVI data installed on the national highway No.1 with 10km interval for travel time prediction model, and probe vehicle data for evaluating the model. The study area has many access points, so there are many outlying observations in the raw AVI data. Therefore, this study uses the algorithm proposed by the author for removing the outliers, and then Kalman filtering algorithm is applied for the travel time prediction. The prediction model is performed for 5, 10, 15 and 30 minute-aggregating interval and the results are $0.061{\sim}0.066$ for 5, 10 and 15 interval and 0.078 for 30 minute one with a little low performance as MAREs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.109-120
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• 2004

Since the late of 1990, there have been number of studies on the required number of probe vehicles and/or optimal aggregation interval sizes for travel time estimation and forecasting. However, in general one to five minutes are used as aggregation intervals for the travel time estimation intervals for the travel time estimation and/or forecasting of loop detector system without a reasonable validation. The objective of this study is to deveop models for identifying optimal aggregation interval sizes of loop detector data for travel time estimation and prediction. This study developed Cross Valiated Mean Square Error (CVMSE) model for the link and route travel time forecasting, The developed models were applied to the loop detector data of Kyeongbu expressway. It was found that the optimal aggregation sizes for the travel time estimation and forecasting are three to five minutes and ten to twenty minutes, respectively.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.29 no.8
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

In this paper, we propose a new approach by analyzing driver behavior and gaze changes within the vehicle in real-time to assess and predict the risk of traffic accidents. Utilizing data analysis and machine learning algorithms, this research precisely measures drivers' abnormal behaviors and gaze movement patterns in real-time, and aggregates these into an overall Risk Score to evaluate the potential for traffic accidents. This research underscores the significance of internal factors, previously unexplored, providing a novel perspective in the field of traffic safety research. Such an innovative approach suggests the feasibility of developing real-time predictive models for traffic accident prevention and safety enhancement, expected to offer critical foundational data for future traffic accident prevention strategies and policy formulation.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.56-73
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• 2019

Probe-based systems have been gaining popularity in advanced traveler information systems. However, the high possibility of providing inaccurate travel-time information due to the inherent time-lag phenomenon is still an important issue to be resolved. To mitigate the time-lag problem, different prediction techniques have been applied, but the techniques are generally regarded as less effective for travel times with high variability. For this reason, current 5-min aggregated data have been commonly used for real-time travel-time provision on highways with high travel-time fluctuation. However, the 5-min aggregation interval itself can further increase the time-lags in the real-time travel-time information equivalent to 5 minutes. In this study, a new scheme that uses both individual probe and 5-min aggregated travel times is suggested to provide reliable real-time travel-time information. The scheme utilizes individual probe data under congested conditions and 5-min aggregated data under uncongested conditions, respectively. As a result of an evaluation with field data, the proposed scheme showed the best performance, with a maximum reduction in travel-time error of 18%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.522-530
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• 2014

Spatio-temporal congestion evolution pattern can be reproduced using the VDS(Vehicle Detection System) historic speed dataset in the TMC(Traffic Management Center)s. Such dataset provides a pool of spatio-temporally experienced traffic conditions. Traffic flow pattern is known as spatio-temporally recurred, and even non-recurrent congestion caused by incidents has patterns according to the incident conditions. These imply that the information should be useful for traffic prediction and traffic management. Traffic flow predictions are generally performed using black-box approaches such as neural network, genetic algorithm, and etc. Black-box approaches are not designed to provide an explanation of their modeling and reasoning process and not to estimate the benefits and the risks of the implementation of such a solution. TMCs are reluctant to employ the black-box approaches even though there are numerous valuable articles. This research proposes a more readily understandable and intuitively appealing data-driven approach and developes an algorithm for identifying congestion patterns for recurrent and non-recurrent congestion management and information provision.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.8 no.1 s.15
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• pp.65-72
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• 2000

Travel demand forecasting is the important process of transportation policy and planning, especially trip assignment is also important because it finds deficiency of network GIS can be applied to transportation due to its various merits. Recently Program development environment is changed to component-based and transportation-component is necessary. This study evolves in implementing trip assignment model with GIS and tries to apply the system to the Cheongju City.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.352-360
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• 1998

교통소통과 안전을 위해서는 체계적이고도 획일적인 교통안전시설물의 설치 및 관리가 요구된다. 앞으로 교통안전시설물에 많은 투자가 절실히 요구되며, 계속 늘어나고 있는 자동차등 여러 가지 교통여건을 감안하면, 교통안전시설물에 대한 수요는 더욱 증갛살 것으로 예상된다. 지리정보시스템 (GIS)을 활용하게되면 급증하는 교통안전시설물의 조사 및 유지·관리업무를 제한된 인력과 예산으로 수행할 수 있게된다. 그러므로 교통안전시설물의 체계적인 유지·관리를 위해선 GIS의 활용은 필수적이라 하겠다. 또한 신설 및 교체수량의 정확한 예측 등과 같은 효과를 거둘 수 있어 효율적인 예산을 집행할 수 있게된다. 본 연구는 지리정보시스템 (GIS)을 이용하여 교통안전시설물 유지·관리 시스템 개발에 목적이 있으며, 특히 개발된 시스템은 실무담당자 활용에 편의를 도모하는데 주안점을 두었다.