• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.37-43
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• 1980

This study have done to get the basical information that would be useful to make the ecological planting, selection of suitable species and weeding plan by the relation between the leading shoot elongation of several species and the climatic factors in the plantation. Sampling measurement have been done in the trial forest of Korean German Forest Management Project located in Joil-ri, Samnam-myeon and Ichcon-ri, Sangbug-myeon, Ulju-gun. The former is in lowland at 100m latidude and the latter is in highland of 600 m latitude. The elongation of leading shoot has been measured in the plantation with 10 days interval from the beginning of March in 1979 and the climatic datas has gotten in the weather station closed to the plantation. 1. The change of air temperature and rainfall in each measuring site is like Fig 1. and 2. The similar temperature in 600 m high latitude is coming about 10 days latter than 100 m latitude. 2. Genus pine as Pinus thunbergii, P. rigida, P. rigitaeda. P. koraiensis and P. taeda begin their leading shoot growth during March and air temperature in that time is around $6^{\circ}C$. In highland their beginning of leading shoot elongation has been found out 10 days latter than lowland. However Abies, Larix and Picea has shown to open their leading shoot during May, 40 days late in comparing with genus pine, and then temperature is making around $15^{\circ}C$. But Cryptomeria, Chamaecyparis and Cedrus deodora has shown their leading shoot opening in March in lowland and May in high land. The reason of late opening, specially in highland, seems to be the influence of winter frost. 3. Most of leading shoot elongation of genus pine has finished during the end 10 days of April and May under range of air temperate $10^{\circ}C$ and $20^{\circ}C$ and other species has finished most of their elongation during the end 10 days of May and June with air temperature range of $18^{\circ}C$ to $20^{\circ}C$. So the suitable season of weeding works show to genus pine in May and other species in June. 4. The leading shoot growth of genus pine has started earlier and closed earlier too than other species and, when over than $20^{\circ}C$ air temperature, their growth is decreasing quickly. Pices abies as well show to be decreased suddenly in over than $20^{\circ}C$ temperature. Other species show the similar trend when over than $22^{\circ}C$. This reason is considered as high temperature of summer season. 5. Annual elongated days of leading shoot of Picea abies is 50 days, Abies hollophylla 70 days, and more than 85 percentage of shoot growth of Pinus koraiensis and Larix leptolepsis are growing during 70 dys as well. The shoot growing days of Chamaecyparis, P. rigida, P. rigitaeda, P. taeda and P. shunbergii show longer period as over than 120 days. 6. The shoot elongation times per year of Abies and Picea has closed as one times and Genus pine is continuring their elongation more than two times. But Cryptomeria, Chamaecyparis, Cedrus deodora and Larix show one or two times elongation depending on the measuring site. The reason of continuring elongation more than than two times seems to be influenced by the temperature in summer season except the genetical reason. 7. Depending on the above results, as the high temperature in summer season could give the influence to grow the leading shoot in the plantation, this would be the considering point on the ecological planting and selection of the suitable species to the slope aspect. The elongation pattern by the season show to be the considering point too to decide the the weeding and fertilizer dressing time by the species.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-35
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• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.20-28
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• 2013

The purpose of this study was to compare the ultra-violet(UV) radiation under the landscaping shade facilities and tree with natural solar UV of the outdoor space at summer middays. The UVA+B and UVB were recorded every minute from the $20^{th}$ of June to the $26^{th}$ of September 2012 at a height of 1.1m above in the four different shading conditions, with fours same measuring system consisting of two couple of analog UVA+B sensor(220~370nm, Genicom's GUVA-T21GH) and UVB sensor(220~320nm, Genicom's GUVA-T21GH) and data acquisition systems(Comfile Tech.'s Moacon). Four different shading conditions were under an wooden shelter($W4.2m{\times}L4.2m{\times}H2.5m$), a polyester membrane structure ($W4.9m{\times}L4.9m{\times}H2.6m$), a Salix koreensis($H11{\times}B30$), and a brick-paved plot without any shading material. Based on the 648 records of 17 sunny days, the time serial difference of natural solar UVA+B and UVB for midday periods were analysed and compared, and statistical analysis about the difference between the four shading conditions was done based on the 2,052 records of daytime period from 10 A.M. to 4 P.M.. The major findings were as follows; 1. The average UVA+B under the wooden shelter, the membrane and the tree were $39{\mu}W/cm^2$(3.4%), $74{\mu}W/cm^2$(6.4%), $87{\mu}W/cm^2$(7.6%) respectively, while the solar UVA+B was $1.148{\mu}W/cm^2$. Which means those facilities and tree screened at least 93% of solar UV+B. 2. The average UVB under the wooden shelter, the membrane and the tree were $12{\mu}W/cm^2$(5.8%), $26{\mu}W/cm^2$(13%), $17{\mu}W/cm^2$(8.2%) respectively, while the solar UVB was $207{\mu}W/cm^2$. The membrane showed the highest level and the wooden shelter lowest. 3. According to the results of time serial analysis, the difference between the three shaded conditions around noon was very small, but the differences of early morning and late afternoon were apparently big. Which seems caused by the matter of the formal and structural characteristics of the shading facilities and tree, not by the shading materials itself. In summary, the performance of the four landscaping shade facilities and tree were very good at screening the solar UV at outdoor of summer middays, but poor at screening the lateral UV during early morning and late afternoon. Therefore, it can be apparently said that the more delicate design of shading facilities and big tree or forest to block the additional lateral UV, the more effective in conditioning the outdoor space reducing the useless or even harmful radiation for human activities.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.16 no.3 s.32
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• pp.171-179
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• 1977

Since the outbreak of the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) in 1915 caused tremendous losses in rice production, one of the more effective method of prevention of such a disaster could be the establishment of longterm forecasting system, In 1916 the author indicated there was a correlation between sunspot activities and brown planthopper and the white back planthopper outbreaks. However, the examples seem to be too small size to state a definite correlation. The purpose of the present study IS to revi~w the history of the brown planthopper outbreaks, and to establish a more effective forcasting system. The present forcasting methods are based on light trap catches of adults which already migrate into this country from mainland China. The regular cycle of 11.2 years of sunspot activity began in 1710, and was continued to present. To gather more records of brown planthopper, the author checked 'Joseon Wangjo Silrok' and analized the so-called 'Hwang' 'Hwang-chung' and 'Chung' which have multiple meanings, together with 'Samguk Sagi' 'Goryo Sa' and 'Munheon Bigo.' The results obtained by the about from review of these old literature citations revealed that ten species of insect and unknown species were involved: i. e., pine moth (Dendrolimus spectabilis), army worm (Mythimna separata), brown planthopper (Nilarvata lugens), white-back planthopper (Sogatella furcifera), migratory locust (Locutsa migratoria), rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis,), mole cricket (Gryllotalpa africana), rice-plant weevil (Echinocnemus squameus), cut worm (Euxoa segetum), and mulberry pyralid Margaronia pyloalis) The suspected incidence of planthopper in old records expressed by 'Hwang' or 'Chung' revealed a total or 25 out of 37 in 'Samguk sagi,' 21 out of 49 in 'Goryo sa,' 9 of 73 in 'Wanjo-silrog,' and none of 8 in 'Munheon bigo' were planthoppers. Therefore, a total of 36 out of 167 records of insect incidence in the old literature can be possibly attributed to planthoppers. The brown planthopper and white-back planthopper migrate together to Korea every year from mainland China, However, the number of each species are differ by year. In 1975 outbreak the brown planthopper was dominant; and the white-back planthopper prevailed in 1946 and 1977 outbreaks, During the course of this study, the author was able to add a new record of outbreak of planthop per. In 1916 the white-back planthopper outbreak caused serious losses in Chungcheong-namdo and Jeonla-namdo, with losses estimated as high as 160 and 190 thousand seok (23.2 and 27.5 thousand M/T), in Naju and Secheon county, respectively. Since 1912, major outbreaks of brown planthopper or white-back planthopper have been recored 5 times. These occurrences coincide and well matched the period of minimum number of sunspots, With these authenticated records of planthoppers, the author believes there is a close correlation between brown planthopper and white-back planthopper outbreaks in Korea and sunspot activities. Therefore, in years of low number of sunspots, we should watch for and expect outbreaks of these. insects. At this time, it will be necessary to provide all possible prevention measures.