• Title/Summary/Keyword: 관측간격

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Disaster risk prediction under the condition of future climate change (미래 기후변화에 따른 재해위험도 예측)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ju;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.125-125
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 의한 자연재해 취약성을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 기상인자와 재해발생으로 인한 피해액의 상관관계를 이용하였다. 재해로 인한 피해액은 1994년부터 2008년까지 15년간 전국 시군별로 피해액을 집계한 자료를 이용하였으며, 우리나라 58개 강우관측소의 일강수량 자료를 이용하여 재해에 영향을 줄 수 있는 네 가지 인자를 추출하였고, 연도별 태풍 발생 횟수도 하나의 기상인자로 고려하였다. 피해액의 규모는 가뭄, 화재, 태풍 및 해일 등 재해발생 유형에 따라서도 영향을 받겠지만, 기후변화 시나리오에 의해 예측할 수 있는 대표적인 미래 추정값은 강수량과 온도 등이며, 결국 재해발생 유형별 시나리오에 의한 재해규모 예측이 아닌 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 미래 재해발생 규모 모형을 구축하기 위해서는 관련 인자로서 강수량으로부터 추출한 인자들을 고려할 수밖에 없을 것이다. 일강수량으로부터 추출한 네 가지 영향인자들은 80mm이상 일강수량 발생일수, 80mm이상 일강수량의 합, 80mm이상 강우의 발생 간격이 30일 이하인 횟수 및 연최대강수량이다. 우선 광역시와 도별로 전국 58개 관측소를 분류하고, 해당 관측소들로부터 추출된 인자들의 평균값을 이용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 미래 강수량 자료는 국립기상연구소의 A2시나리오를 통계학적 Downscaling을 통해 재생산한 자료를 이용하였다. 예측모형은 Bayesian 모형을 기반으로 DEXP(double exponential distribution) 확률분포를 이용하였다. 재해피해액 를 아래와 같이 비정상성 모형으로 구성하였으며, 위치매개 변수의 확률분포를 네 가지 기상인자에 의한 회귀식으로 구성하였다. Y damage costs) = dexp(${\mu}(t),\tau(t)$) $p({\mu}(t))\sim(abs({\alpha}+{\alpha}_1X_1+{\alpha}_2X_2+{\alpha}_3X_3+{\alpha}_4X_4,\;\sigma_{\alpha}^2)$ $p(\tau){\sim}G(k,s)$.

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Estimation of Flood Discharge using Satellite-derived Rainfall in Abroad Watershed (위성강우를 이용한 해외 유역 홍수량 추정)

  • Kim, Joo Hun;Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Kyeong Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.250-250
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    • 2017
  • 글로벌 위성 기반의 강수량 관측에 대한 역사는 1979년에 Arkin의 의해 제안된 IR방법에 의해 위성으로부터 강우자료를 유도하는 개념이 도입된 이후 1987년 해양에서의 비교적 정확한 강수량 추정이 가능한 다중 채널의 마이크로파(MW) 복사계를 이용한 방법으로 위성강수 추정에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되었다. 이후 두 IR과 MW를 혼합한 방법에서, 또다시 1997년 TRMM위성의 PR(Precpipitation Radar)의 레이더를 이용하는 방법, 그리고 2014년 GPM 핵심 위성(GPM Core Observatory)에 탑재된 Dual PR에 의한 방법으로 위성강수의 정확도를 매우 높여가고 있다. 본 연구는 KOICA 사업으로 진행중인 모로코 세부강 유역 홍수방지 마스터플랜 사업에서 모로코 세부강 유역의 2010년 홍수사상에 대한 위성강우 및 지상계측 일일자료를 이용하여 홍수유출량을 추정하는 것으로 목적으로 하고 있다. 모로코 세부강(Oued Sebou) 유역은 모로코의 서북부에 위치하며 유역면적은 한강유역과 유사한 $38,380km^2$이고 하천연장은 450km로 모로코 국토면적의 약 7% 정도를 차지하며 모로코 농업생산의 중심지역이고 유역의 기후 및 기상 특성은 겨울철 온난다습하고 여름에 고온 건조한 지중해성 기후를 나타내며, 연강수량은 400mm이상으로 보고하고 있다(이산 등, 2015). 유역내 49개 관측소의 일일 강우량 자료를 분석한 결과 2000년부터 2010년까지의 유역 산술평균 강수량은 607.1mm/yr로 분석되었고, 2010년 가장 많은 강수를 기록한 지역은 Jbel oudka로 1874.1mm/yr였고, 가장 적은 강수량을 기록한 지역은 Allal Al Fassi - Barrage로 289.9mm/yr로 나타났다. 2010년 홍수가 발생한 시기인 2009년 12월 19일부터 2010년 1월 18일까지의 1시간 간격의 위성강우자료와 1일 관측 지상계측자료를 합성하여 위성보정강우량을 추정하였다. 보정 방법은 순위상관방법을 적용하였다. 사용한 모형은 일본 ICHARM에서 개발한 IFAS와 한국건설기술연구원의 MapWindow 기반 GRM 모형(mwGRM)을 이용하였다. 모형의 적용 결과 세부강 유역 본류의 첨두유출량은 $6,010m^3/s$(mwGRM)과 $5,878m^3/s$(IFAS)로 분석되었다. 향후 위성강우 및 지상계측 강우의 시계열적 정확도와 총강우량 등의 정확도 평가를 수행할 계획이다.

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Annealing Temperature Dependence of the Spin Wave for Polycrystalline $Ni_{83}Fe_{17}$ Thin Films (다결정 $Ni_{83}Fe_{17}$ 합금박막에 대한 스핀파 특성의 열처리 효과)

  • 백종성;김약연;이성재;임우영;이수형
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.968-973
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    • 1995
  • In order to investigate the annealing effect for RF magnetron sputtered $Ni_{83}Fe_{17}$ thin films, we have studied the spin wave rehaviors by FMR after annealing the samples at $135^{\circ}C,\;225^{\circ}C$ in air and at $160^{\circ}C,\;220^{\circ}C,\;330^{\circ}C,\;390^{\circ}C\;and\;420^{\circ}C$ in argon gas for one hour respectively. In FMR spectra for the films annealed in argon gas and the assputtered film at perpendicular resonance, only odd numrer spin waves are observed. But even numrer spin waves are observed for the film annealed in air at $225^{\circ}C$ recause of the large difference retween both surface magnetic anisotropy. In the case of the sample annealed at $420^{\circ}C$ in argon gas, the spin waves are shifted toward high field, can due to the increase of saturation magnetization during annealing. The spacings retween the spin wave resonance fields are narrowed rapidly, this is thought that the magnetic homogeneity increased in the film after annealing at high temperature.

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Shoreline Change Analysis of Haeundae Beach Using Airborne LiDAR Survey (항공 LiDAR 측량을 이용한 해운대 해안의 해안선 변화 분석)

  • Lee, Jae One;Kim, Yong Suk;We, Gwang Jae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4D
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    • pp.561-567
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    • 2008
  • In this study, shoreline change was analyzed by RTK-GPS and advanced airborne LiDAR survey. For extraction of coastline, first of all, tide correction was conducted at all RTK-GPS points through the comparing with the corresponding tidal height, and cross section providing coastline was produced using Autocad Civil3D program. Comparing with two results of RTK-GPS (first, 29 Aug 2007; second, 6 Oct 2007) surveys, coastline of the first result had been decreased about 21m compare with that of the second. And it was also demonstrated that the length of coastline by the first RTK-GPS was 15m shorter than that by the airborne LiDAR survey (Dec. 2006). In addition, we recoquized that the erosion appeared in the top right-hand (dock area); the sediment in the bottom left-hand (Chosun beach area) of the Haeundae beach. As a result, therefore, it was learned that artificial sand filling for beach open and natural effects such as a typhoon, current drift, wind direction gave cause for area changes and coastline.

Estimation of the Lowest and Highest Astronomical Tides along the west and south coast of Korea from 1999 to 2017 (서해안과 남해안에서 1999년부터 2017년까지 최저와 최고 천문조위 계산)

  • BYUN, DO-SEONG;CHOI, BYOUNG-JU;KIM, HYOWON
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2019
  • Tidal datums are key and basic information used in fields of navigation, coastal structures' design, maritime boundary delimitation and inundation warning. In Korea, the Approximate Lowest Low Water (ALLW) and the Approximate Highest High Water (AHHW) have been used as levels of tidal datums for depth, coastline and vertical clearances in hydrography and coastal engineering fields. However, recently the major maritime countries including USA, Australia and UK have adopted the Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) and the Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) as the tidal datums. In this study, 1-hr interval 19-year sea level records (1999-2017) observed at 9 tidal observation stations along the west and south coasts of Korea were used to calculate LAT and HAT for each station using 1-minute interval 19-year tidal prediction data yielded through three tidal harmonic methods: 19 year vector average of tidal harmonic constants (Vector Average Method, VA), tidal harmonic analysis on 19 years of continuous data (19-year Method, 19Y) and tidal harmonic analysis on one year of data (1-year Method, 1Y). The calculated LAT and HAT values were quantitatively compared with the ALLW and AHHW values, respectively. The main causes of the difference between them were explored. In this study, we used the UTide, which is capable of conducting 19-year record tidal harmonic analysis and 19 year tidal prediction. Application of the three harmonic methods showed that there were relatively small differences (mostly less than ±1 cm) of the values of LAT and HAT calculated from the VA and 19Y methods, revealing that each method can be mutually and effectively used. In contrast, the standard deviations between LATs and HATs calculated from the 1Y and 19Y methods were 3~7 cm. The LAT (HAT) differences between the 1Y and 19Y methods range from -16.4 to 10.7 cm (-8.2 to 14.3 cm), which are relatively large compared to the LAT and HAT differences between the VA and 19Y methods. The LAT (HAT) values are, on average, 33.6 (46.2) cm lower (higher) than those of ALLW (AHHW) along the west and south coast of Korea. It was found that the Sa and N2 tides significantly contribute to these differences. In the shallow water constituents dominated area, the M4 and MS4 tides also remarkably contribute to them. Differences between the LAT and the ALLW are larger than those between the HAT and the AHHW. The asymmetry occurs because the LAT and HAT are calculated from the amplitudes and phase-lags of 67 harmonic constituents whereas the ALLW and AHHW are based only on the amplitudes of the 4 major harmonic constituents.

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.

Analysis on Spatial Variability of Rainfall in a Small Area (소규모 지역에 대한 강우의 공간변화도 분석)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Kim, Won;Kim, Dong-Gu;Lee, Chanjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.905-913
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    • 2015
  • This study deployed six rain gauges in a small area for a dense network observing rainfall and analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall. They were arranged in a $2{\times}3$ rectangular grid with equal space of 60 m. The rainfall measurements from five gauges were analyzed during the period of 50 days because one was seriously affected by alien substance. The maximum difference in cumulative rainfall from them is approximately 38.5 mm. The correlation coefficients from hourly rainfall time series differ from each other while daily rainfall coincide. The coefficient of variation in hourly rainfall varies up to 224% and that in daily rainfall up to 91%. The results from uncertainty analysis show that with only four rain gauges areal mean rainfall cannot be estimated over 95% accuracy. For reliable flood prediction and effective water management it is required to develop a new technique for the estimation of areal rainfall.

Assessing Estimation Methods of the Expected Crashes using Panel Traffic Crash Data (패널교통사고자료 기반 기대교통사고건수 추정기법 평가)

  • Sin, Gang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2011
  • To evaluate highway safety countermeasures or identify high risk sites, the expected crashes for a site (or segment) have been estimated using the panel crash data. Past studies show that two different methods can be employed to estimate the expected crashes: observed crash based method and empirical Bayes (EB) method. This study conducts a simulation study to analyze how the estimation errors of the two estimates are affected by the different structures of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. The results disclose that the estimation errors of the observed crash based estimates (i.e. the mean observed crash and comparative parallel estimate) are always greater than those of the EB estimates regardless of the structure of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. Thus, it is highly recommended that the EB method be used in the study of traffic safety to obtain more reliable estimates for the expected crashes. In addition, this study corroborates that the estimation errors of the two estimates decrease as the analysis periods increase if safety does not change over time. Hence, it is also recommended that the 1-year analysis period used for identifying high risk sites in Korea be extended to produce more efficient estimates of the time-constant expected crashes.

On Estimation of Zero Plane Displacement from Single-Level Wind Measurement above a Coniferous Forest (침엽수림 상부의 단일층 풍속 관측으로부터의 영면변위 추정에 관하여)

  • Yoo, Jae-Ill;Hong, Jin-Kyu;Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.45-62
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    • 2010
  • Zero plane displacement (d) is the elevated height of the apparent momentum sink exerted by the vegetation on the air. For a vegetative canopy, d depends on the roughness structure of a plant canopy such as leaf area index, canopy height and canopy density, and thus is critical for the analysis of canopy turbulence and the calculation of surface scalar fluxes. In this research note, we estimated d at the Gwangneung coniferous forest by employing two independent methods of Rotach (1994) and Martano (2000), which require only a single-level eddy-covariance measurement. In general, these two methods provided comparable estimates of $d/h_c$ (where $h_c$ is the canopy height, i.e., ~23m), which ranged from 0.51 to 0.97 depending on wind directions. These estimates of $d/h_c$ were within the ranges (i.e., 0.64~0.94) reported from other forests in the literature but were sensitive to the forms of the nondimensional functions for atmospheric stability. Our finding indicates that one should be careful in interepreation of zero plane displacement estimated from a single-level eddy covariance measurement that is conductaed within the roughness sublayer.

A System Displaying Real-time Meteorological Data Obtained from the Automated Observation Network for Verifying the Early Warning System for Agrometeorological Hazard (조기경보시스템 검증을 위한 무인기상관측망 실황자료 표출 시스템)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Park, Joo-Hyeon;Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Yongseok;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2020
  • The Early Warning System for agrometeorological hazard of the Rural Development Administration (Korea) forecasts detailed weather for each farm based on the meteorological information provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and estimates the growth of crops and predicts a meteorological hazard that can occur during the growing period by using the estimated detailed meteorological information. For verification of early warning system, automated weather observation network was constructed in the study area. Moreover, a real-time web display system was built to deliver near real-time weather data collected from the observation network. The meteorological observation system collected diverse meteorological variables including temperature, humidity, solar radiation, rainfall, soil moisture, sunshine duration, wind velocity, and wind direction. These elements were collected every minute and transmitted to the server every ten minutes. The data display system is composed of three phases: the first phase builds a database of meteorological data collected from the meteorological observation system every minute; the second phase statistically analyzes the collected meteorological data at ten-minutes, one-hour, or one-day time step; and the third phase displays the collected and analyzed meteorological data on the web. The meteorological data collected in the database can be inquired through the webpage for all data points or one data point in the unit of one minute, ten minutes, one hour, or one day. Moreover, the data can be downloaded in CSV format.