• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.101-113
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• 2004

본 연구는 기술혁신파급경로를 결정하는 국가 간 무역역할에 대한 실증적인 분석을 목적으로 한다 이 연구목적을 위하여, 최근 자료인 1980년부터 2003년까지 15개 OECD국가를 대상으로 자국의 기술혁신을 결정하는 중요한 변수로 알려진 자국 R&D축적 및 무역대상국의 R&D축적자료를 구축하였으며, 이를 무역지수인 쌍방간에 수출 및 수입량을 경제규모로 나눈 가중지수를 이용하여 유입된 R&D축적량을 구축하였다. 또한 대상변수들의 기술혁신파급역할에 대하여 최근 논의되고 있는 비정상적 패널기법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 최근 제안되고 있는 비정상적 패널기법을 이용하여 국제 간에 기술혁신파급경로를 분석한 결과를 간단하게 요약하면, 다음과 같다. 첫째, 분석대상변수들은 비정상성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 그러나 장기적으로 분석대상변수들이 서로 균형상태를 나타내는 공적분관계에 있음을 알 수 있었다. 셋째, 국가 간에 기술혁신파급경로의 방향과 정도를 파악하기 위하여 패널 공적분계수를 추정하였으나, 설정함수형태에 따라서 여러 가지 상반된 실증결과가 나타났다. 따라서 기존 연구Coe et al., 1995, Keller, 1998, Kao, et al., 1999 그리고 Funk, 2001]의 분석결과 및 그 시사점들이 서로 다른 이유는 분석대상변수들의 선택차이뿐만 아니라, 기술혁신경로에 대한 설정함수형태에 따라서 서로 다른 분석결과가 나타날 수 있는 가능성을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 나타난 분석결과의 시사점을 보면, 국가 간에 기술혁신파급경로분석은 기술혁신파급을 결정하는 매개변수선정도 중요하지만, 결정된 설명변수들 사이에 어떤 기술혁신파급에 관한 연관관계가 존재하는지에 대한 실증분석 즉 파급경로분석도 매우 중요함을 보여준다. 이러한 파급경로분석에는 기존의 선형가정뿐만 아니라 비선형가정을 이용한 기술파급경로분석을 통한 시사점제안이 요구된다.관적인 시스템을 제공하는 것이다.가 생성된다. $M_{C}$에 CaC $l_2$를 첨가한 경우 $M_{C}$는 완전히 $M_{Cl}$ 로 전이를 하였다. $M_{Cl}$ 에 CaC $l_2$를 첨가하였을 경우에는 아무런 수화물의 변화는 발생하지 않았다. 따라서 CaS $O_4$.2$H_2O$를 CaC $O_3$및 CaC $l_2$와 반응시켰을 때의 AFm상의 안정성 순서는 $M_{S}$ < $M_{C}$< $M_{Cl}$ 로 된다.phy. Finally, Regional Development and Regional Environmental Problems were highly correlated with accommodators.젼 공정을 거쳐 제조된다는 점을 고려할 때 이용가능한 에너지 함량계산에 직접 활용될 수는 없을 것이다.총단백질 및 AST에서 시간경과에 따른 삼투압 조절 능력에 문제가 있는 것으로 보여진다.c}C$에서 5시간 가열조리 후 잔존율은 각각 84.7% 및 73.3%였고, 질소가스 통기하에서는 잔존율이 88.9% 및 81.8%로 더욱 안정하였다.8% 및 12.44%, 201일 이상의 경우 13.17% 및 11.30%로 201일 이상의 유기의 경우에만 대조구와 삭제 구간에 유의적인(p<0.05) 차이를 나타내었다.는 담수(淡水)에서 10%o의 해수(海水)로 이주된지 14일(日) 이후에 신장(腎臟)에서 수축된 것으로 나타났다. 30%o의 해수(海水)에 적응(適應)된 틸라피아의 평균 신사구체(腎絲球體)의 면적은 담수(淡水)에 적응된 개체의 면적보다 유의성

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.401-412
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• 2011

This study uses a vector error correction model to analyze the daily time series data of the spot price of EUA (European Union Allowance). As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid Phase 1 period (2005-2007) where the EUA prices were distorted. Unit-root and cointegration test results reveal that all variables have a unit root and cointegration vectors exist, so a vector error correction model is adopted instead of a vector autoregressive model.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.77-97
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• 2012

Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.153-164
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• 2022

In this study, we estimate the quantile-regression framework of the shipping industry for the Capesize used ship, which is a typical raw material transportation from January 2000 to December 2021. This research aims two main contributions. First, we analyze the relationship between the Capesize used ship, which is a typical type in the raw material transportation market, and the freight market, for which mixed empirical analysis results are presented. Second, we present an empirical analysis model that considers the structural transformation proposed in the Hyunsok Kim and Myung-hee Chang(2020a) study in quantile-regression. In structural change investigations, the empirical results confirm that the quantile model is able to overcome the problems caused by non-stationarity in time series analysis. Then, the long-run relationship of the co-integration framework divided into long and short-run effects of exogenous variables, and this is extended to a prediction model subdivided by quantile. The results are the basis for extending the analysis based on the shipping theory to artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.183-213
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• 2006

본 연구의 목적은 공적분 검정과 예측오차 분산분해 방법을 이용하여 우리나라 주식시장에서 주가지수와 거시경제 변수들과의 계량적 관계를 파악하고 종합주가지수와 밀접한 관련성이 있는 변수를 사용하여 종합주가지수와 거시경제변수들 사이의 모형을 추정하는 것이다. Johansen 공적분 검증을 이용한 결과를 보면 종합주가지수와 7개의 거시경제변수들(총통화, 소비자물가지수, 금리, 산업생산지수, 원 달러 환율, 국제원유가격, 경상수지) 사이에 상당히 밀접한 연관성이 있으며, 이들 변수들 사이에 장기적 균형 관계가 존재하였다. 예측오차 분산분해 방법을 사용한 분석결과에서는 종합주가지수의 분산을 예측하는데 있어서 이들 거시경제변수들의 설명력이 매우 높게 나타났다. 또한 우리나라의 주식시장에서는 금리, 국제원유가격, 경상수지 등의 요인보다는 원 달러 환율, 소비자물가지수, 산업생산의 비중이 더 크다는 사실을 알 수 있었다. 우리나라의 자본시장에서는 1997년 말 외환위기를 전후로 하여 현저한 구조적 변화가 존재하였기 때문에 백터오차수정모형을 설정할 때에는 외환위기 이전기간과 이후기간으로 나누어서 분석하는 것이 더욱 타당함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.171-194
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• 2008

This paper analysis the long-run demand for monetary indicator M2 and Liquidity indicator L in Korea in the period from 1980:1 to 2006:3 by cointegration and error correction models. The empirical evidence that M2, L in Korea is meaningfully cointegrated with income, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation uncertainty, real effective exchange rate, exchange rate uncertainty and LIBOR, thus showing the existence of long-run demand function under open-economy framework.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.49-57
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• 2010

This paper examines the relationship between port import from China and macroeconomic variables such as international financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production during the period 2000-2009. I employ GPH cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The empirical results show that our model is stationary as well as mean-reverting. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information regarding the responses of the port import to the shocks economic variables such as financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production. The results show that the response of port import to exchange rate and financial crisis declines at the first and dies out slowly.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.72-113
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• 2020

This study investigates the relationship between mineral exports to China, North Korea's most important source of foreign currency acquisition, and its imports of various items from China from the first quarter of 1995 through to the third quarter of 2019. The results from a cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between mineral exports and imports of food, fuel, and some intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts, and accessories. The results from a vector autoregression using first-differenced variables indicate that the short-run relationship between mineral exports and imports is different between the period before and after the third quarter of 2010. Prior to structural changes, i.e., before the third quarter of 2010, import shocks affected mineral exports. However, after the third quarter of 2010, an increase in mineral exports led to an increase in the import of vehicles, intermediate goods, and luxury goods. This paper shows both the possibilities and the limits that mineral exports can contribute to North Korea's economic growth. The results, which show that mineral exports have a long-run relationship with intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts and accessories, imply that mineral exports to China could have a positive effect on the North Korean economy. However, the fact that mineral exports do not have any significant effect on the import of machinery and equipment, which helps the accumulation of capital formation, shows that mineral exports have a limited effect on inducing long-term growth in the North Korean economy.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.181-230
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• 2023

Evaluating the empirical validity of Modern Monetary Theory, this study implements panel cointegration analysis on annual panel data (2000-2022) of OECD countries. Specifically, the sample countries are divided into groups based on the presence of their own sovereign currencies, and for each group, the long-run equilibrium relation (cointegration) between the ratio of public debt or fiscal deficit and government bond rates is tested and estimated. Main findings are as follows: applying the pooled mean-group estimation for panel cointegration, it is found that both the ratios of public debt and fiscal deficit have significantly positive long-run correlation with government bond rates in countries without sovereign currency such as the Euro-zone or fixed exchange rate regime countries. However, in countries with sovereign currency such as non-Euro-zone or floating exchange rate regime countries, the long-run correlation is either negative or not statistically significant. Particularly, in countries without sovereign currency, the ratio of public debt has significantly positive correlation with the real government bond rates in the short run as well as the long run. These results are consistent with the prediction of Modern Monetary Theory, thus providing a supporting evidence for the empirical validity of the theory.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.153-169
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• 2008

This paper examines the recently empirical test for the two types of endogenous growth models, which one is more fitted to real data. We adopt the non-stationary panel data methodologies for seeking empirical implication by using productivity and R&D data in the OECD over the past two decades. The Empirical tests show that there is a robust relationship Total Factor Productivity and R&D variables implied by semi-endogenous growth model. The relationship suggested by fully endogenous growth theory, however, is sensitive to R&D variables. Therefore, the estimation results provide empirical evidence in favour of endogenous growth theory of R&D expenditure role for sustaining economic growth. The sustained Total Factor Productivity, however, is maintained by more increasing R&D inputs for overcoming diminishing return to R&D efforts.