• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.185-202
• /
• 2010

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific industry. This paper is to examine the long-run relationships between trade balance and real exchange rate using bilateral data of SITC 10 Industry Classification for Korea vis-${\grave{a}}$-vis her trading partners Indonesia, India, China, Japan on a quarterly basis over the period of 1999Q1 to 2008Q4. I applied the recent panel cointegration technique to reduce the small sample problems and improving power performance of the relevant estimation and inference procedures. The results reveal evidence of the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Indonesia 2 industries, India 5 industries, Japanese 4 industries, Chinese 6 industries. Whole group's cointegration statistic of India, China, Japan was supported Marshall-Lerner Condition but Indonesia was rejected.

• The Southeast Asian review
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.313-362
• /
• 2013

중국의 위안화 국제화(지역화)는 중국경제의 성장 및 중국정부의 전략적, 정책적 지원에 따라 가속화되고 있다. 특히 최근 ASEAN과 중국 간 경제통합이 빠르게 진행됨에 따라 동남아시아 지역에서 중국 위안화의 유통이 확대되고 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 위안화 유통의 확대와 관련하여 위안화 국제화(지역화)가 동남아시아 국가들의 환율정책에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 한다. 동 지역에서 위안화의 유통의 확대(위안화 국제화)가 유의미하다면 달러화 대비 위안화 환율과 달러화 대비 동남아시아 개별국가통화 환율 간에 인과적 관계를 보일 것이다. 왜냐하면 환율정책의 중요한 목적 중 하나는 환율의 안정적 운영인데 환율결정에 있어 위안화의 비중이 크다면 그 만큼 달러화 대비 개별국가통화 간 환율의 영향도 커지기 때문이다. 본 논문은 이러한 가설을 바탕으로 두 환율변수 간 공적분 분석 등 계량분석을 통해 가설검정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이전(2005.8~2008.6)에는 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 나타나는데 비해 그 이후(2010.7~2012.6)는 비동조화 현상이 나타나는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 2010년 이후 유럽의 재정 위기 등 글로벌 경기침체로 인해 동남아시아 국가들의 환율 정책 우선순위가 환율의 안정적 운영에서 경기회복을 위한 수출증가 및 이를 위한 개별국가 통화의 환율절하로 전환하였음을 의미한다고 할 수 있다. 또한 중국과의 국경무역 등 경제적 영향이 상대적으로 큰 GMS(라오스, 미얀마, 베트남)국가들의 경우 그 외 아세안 7개국들에 비해 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 강하게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 이들 국가들이 상대적으로 기타 국가들에 비해 위안화 국제화에 대한 민감도가 높다는 것을 의미한다. 향후 동남아시아 국가들의 경기가 회복되고 위안화의 국제화가 가속되면 두 환율 간 동조화 기조는 강화될 것으로 예상된다.

• Economic Analysis
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.43-71
• /
• 2020

This paper aims to derive macroeconomic implications by analyzing the business cycle characteristics of the youth unemployment. The results of empirical analysis seem to show that youth unemployment appears to be relatively less correlated with business cycle compared to other age groups, and thus it is difficult to explain the recent steady increase in the potential labor force as a result of the business cycle fluctuation alone. Moreover, the alternative unemployment measures of the youth group showing upward trend were estimated to be co-integrated with output measures. This co-integrated trend increase suggests that unlike other age groups, youth may be influenced by structural factors inherent in Korea's economic growth path. The fact that the wage difference based on firm size has widened steadily since the Asian financial crisis and that the proportion of large companies that provide relatively high-quality jobs compared to major industrialized countries is significantly lower may be the evidence of the structural changes in Korean youth labor market. The results of above analysis may explain why the job search periods for youth has lengthened amid these structural changes.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.676-686
• /
• 2016

This study analyzed the long term relationship between the K-REITs' lending rate and interest rate variables based on ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and also examined the short term relationship based on the ARDL-ECM model. In the results of the empirical test, there is a co-integration relationship among the K-REITs' lending rate, 3 year government bond (rate), 3 year government bond (rate), corporation bond (rate) (AA-, 3year) and general fund loan rate. This means that the K-REITs' lending rate is related to the long term interest rate. The corporate general fund loan rate has a significant correlation with the K-REITs' lending rate in the long term relation and short term adjustment process. The establishment of a management plan by the REITs considering the trends in the corporate general fund loan rate in the decision making process for finance sector borrowings can be practically helpful for the K-REITs.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.15 no.10
• /
• pp.457-467
• /
• 2015

Despite the recent phenomena of Chonsei price increase, low interest rate and low growth, the indexes of financial and insurance industry production showed the results contrary to the common belief that the financial industry is sensitive to such financial crises. This is because the index of financial industry has continuously maintained a certain level of increase as opposed to the index of all industry production. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the dynamic correlation between the index of financial industry production and Chonsei price increase. A vector autoregression (VAR) model, which doesn't have a cointegrating relationship, was used to define the Chonsei price index and the indexes of all industry production and financial and insurance industry, which are macro economic variables, and describe the data. The results of the analysis on the time series data of 183 months from January 2000 to May 2015 showed that Chonsei price increase was not directly derived from the index of financial industry, but the finance industrial index affected Chonsei price increase.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.97-122
• /
• 2013

The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.515-529
• /
• 2003

This theoretical model makes three contributions to the study on economic growth and environment. First, emissions are generated during final goods production and technology accumulation. Second, this paper assumes that pollution is directly increasing with increase in final goods output or in consumption. Third, we use reproducible factors associated with labor and capital input in production function and assume constant return to scale in reproducible factors. From growth rate condition we derived, increases in reproducible factors, increases in productivity of either the abatment or technology sector, and decrease in social discount rate would increase the sustainable growth rate. In empirical test, the environmental degradation did not effect the economic growth rate though other factors satisfied the growth rate condition equation. However, through the reinterpretation of this result, we found indirectly the fact of that an inverted U relationship between air pollution and economic growth rate would exist in 20 OECD countries using a panel data for the period of 1986~1995.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.573-593
• /
• 2012

The paper examined the relationship between total and sector level electricity consumptions and economic growth in Korea for the period of 1980-2009. The results of unit-roots and cointegration tests show that all variables-real GDP, total, primary, manufacture, and service sector electricity consumptions-were not stationary and there were no linear combinations in the long run between electricity consumptions and economic growth. Thus, by using standard Granger-causality test we found that total, primary, and manufacture sector electricity consumptions were Granger-caused by economic growth, not vice versa. This means that causality runs from economic growth to each electricity consumption. However, there is no causal relationship between service sector electricity consumption and economic growth. These results imply that the government policies aimed at reducing electricity consumptions and increasing energy efficiency etc. can be feasible without deterring economic growth in Korea.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.37-56
• /
• 2017

This study analyzed the mutual causal relationship between energy consumption, production, and export for manufacturing industry in Korea. The Korean manufacturing industry was divided into nine industries and panel data was constructed from 1991 to 2013. The panel Granger causality test method developed by Demitrescu and Hurlin (2012) was used along with the Vector Error Correction Model. This analysis showed that there was Granger Causality from production to energy consumption, from exports to energy consumption. However, Granger Causality was not established in the opposite direction. Therefore, this result supports the conservation hypothesis of Qzturk (2010) that energy-saving policies in the manufacturing sector can be implemented without adverse effects on production or exports in short-run. There is a long-run cointegrating relationship between production, energy consumption, exports, labor, and capital in the Korean manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the energy consumption contributes to the increasing of production in long-run equilibrium relationship.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.109 no.1
• /
• pp.99-108
• /
• 2020

Although the relationship between income and income inequality has previously been discussed, the present study applies a dynamic approach to analyze the specific relationship between forest household income and income inequality. For this analysis, a unit root test and a cointegration test were conducted to characterize the nature of income time-series data. After converting unstable time-series data into stable time-series data, a VAR model was estimated. Based on this model, an impulse-response was generated and variance-decomposition analysis was performed. These analyses showed that the effect of forest household income was relatively larger than that of the Gini coefficient, and that the impact of forest household income not only caused income to increase but also caused the Gini coefficient to decrease. In addition, the impact of the Gini coefficient had an impact on reducing forest household income and further increasing income inequality. We conclude that, with the aim of alleviating the inequality of forest household income, an income growth policy would be more effective than an income distribution policy.