• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2002.05a
• /
• pp.953-959
• /
• 2002

계절유행상품의 수요는 연중 성수기가 길지 않고 매년 유행과 제품디자인 변화가심한 경향이 있어 수요예측에 과거의 판매정보의 유용성이 크지 않다. 성수기 초반의 수요가 연간 수요결정에 매우 중요하며 후반부수요가 급격히 감소하는 특성이 있다. 반면 이월상품의 잔존가치가 매우 낮지만 매출마진이 높아 수요예측의 정확도에 따라 수익률이 큰 영향을 받는다. 이러한 이유로 기존의 수요예측방법을 계절상품에 적용하기에 무리가 따르며 예측오차의 비용이 매우 커서 계절상품 관리에 이용할 수 없다. 본 연구에서 성수기를 하위기간으로 구분하여 시즌 초반부 수요발생시점을 측정하여 초반부 기간별수요량을 구하고 이를 근거로 기간 누적수요비율을 quantile regression에 의거 추정하여 기간별 수요량과 전제 수요량을 예측하는 방법을 제시하고 모의자료를 사용하여 이 모형의 우수성을 평가하였다.

• Korean Journal of Plant Resources
• /
• v.24 no.5
• /
• pp.549-556
• /
• 2011

We investigated the plant phenology on the threatened species for climate change in the summit area of Mt. Deogyusan which is a representative sub-alpine zone in Korea. We had performed the monitoring survey of plant phenology on 38 species including 20 trees and 18 herbs from May 2009 to November 2010. The investigated phenological charateristics were five dates for leafing, flowering, floral abscission, autumn leaf colors and leaf abscission on each plant species in sub-alpine region. The climate data were measured from November 2009 to December 2010. The range of temperature was from 30.4 to -$20.3^{\circ}C$ at Hyangjeokbong to Jungbong region, and the relative humidity was 100% to 3.4%. The leafing dates in 2010 were similar to 2009 or were 6-20 days delayed in most of the investigated species except Veratrum oxysepalum and Sanguisorba hakusanensis which showed 8 days earlier leafing dates in 2010. The biggest difference among phenological characters was found in flowering dates. The flowering dates of early Spring blooming species such as Heloniopsis koreana, Rhododendron yedoense for. poukhanense and Viola orientalis showed 13-20 days earlier in 2010, and the several summer flowering species as Viburnum opulus var. calvescens, Smilacina japonica and Bupleurum longeradiatum showed 6-10 days delay in 2010. The dates for floral abscission and autumn leaf colors in 2010 were delayed about 10-18 days, and leaf abscission dates were similar to 2009. The effects of climate change on the phenology for the threatened species in sub-alpine zones of Korea are occuring especially on flowering, floral abscission and autumn leaf colors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.22 no.7 s.78
• /
• pp.17-23
• /
• 2004

교통정책을 평가하기 위해 기본적으로 요구되는 Data 중 가장 근본이 되는 것이 OD이다. 기존의 교통정책을 평가함에 있어서 일반적으로 사용되고 있는 OD는 AADT(Annual Average Daily Traffic) OD이다. 계절별 평일/주말 교통량의 분산이 매우 크다는 것은 기존 조사나 연구로 익히 알려진 사실이며, 또한 사회 경제적인 여건의 변화 및 주 5일제 근무제의 시행 등으로 여가통행의 비중이 높아짐에 따라 평일과 주말의 교통량의 분산은 더욱 커질 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 교통정책을 평가하는 방법도 AADT OD의 일률적인 적용이 아닌 교통량의 계절별 평일/주말의 분산을 적용시킨 OD를 가지고 교통정책을 평가하는 방법이 교통정책을 결정함에 있어 오류를 범할 가능성을 적게 될 것으로 예상된다. 기존 연구에서는 이러한 교통량의 분산의 보정을 지점교통량에 한정하여 보정하고 있어 실질적인 네트워크 분석에 적용하기에는 무리가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 관측된 TCS Data를 이용하여 계절별 평일/주말의 OD 교통 패턴을 분석하여 계절별 평일/주말의 OD 교통패턴을 반영할 수 있는 보정계수를 산출하고 산출된 보정계수에 따라 AADT OD를 보정하여 네트워크 분석의 기초 자료를 구축하였다. 수정된 OD 교통량의 검증을 위하여 기존의 AADT OD의 인구당 통행발생비율과 계절별 평일/주말 OD의 통행발생량을 비교하였다. 그 결과 소수점 두 자리수에서 오차가 발생하여 비교적 합리적인 OD가 추정되었다. 또한 기존의 AADT OD를 이용하여 정책 결정을 할 때의 오류 가능성을 보이기 위하여 각 계절별 평일/주말 OD 교통량과 기존의 AADT OD를 입력 자료로 각각의 네트워크 분석 후 총통행시간의 차이를 분석하였다. 그 결과 정책 결정에 영향을 미칠 수 있을 정도의 차이가 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.83-92
• /
• 2004

A continuous monitoring of textural characteristics of surface sediments, sedimentation rates and beach profile was carried out to investigate the seasonal variations of sedimentary processes in the Imjado beach, southwestern coast of Korea for two years. The beach profiles consist of steep beach face and relatively flat middle and low tide beaches. The slope of the beach face increases in summer and decreases in winter, in good accordance with the standard beach cycle. Ridge and runnel systems are well developed in the middle and low tide beaches during the summer, but these structures are replaced by mega-ripples during the winter. The sediments are fining southward as well as landward. The mean grain-size tends to be increasingly coarser during seasons of autumn and winter on the north beach and during seasons of winter and spring on the south one. In addition, the sediments are eroded on the north beach and accumulated on the south one as a whole. These are probably due to southward transportation of the sediments as long-shore current (NE-SW) runs around the coastal line of the beach. However, the seasonal variations in accumulation rates are very complex and irregular. It is considered that the Imjado beach represents in non-equilibrium state, as a result of coastal and submarine topographic changes by artificial agents and sea-level uprising associated with global warming.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.278-289
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of science writing heuristic class on 'seasonal change' on elementary school students' science learning motivation and scientific attitude. In order to carry out this study, 49 students from 6 grade of elementary school in P metropolitan city were selected and 24 students in one class were selected as experimental group and 25 students in the other class were selected as the comparative group. The experimental group was taught science writing heuristic in 10 times classes related to the 'seasonal change' and the general classes related to the 'seasonal change' were conducted in the comparative group. Based on the results of this study, the conclusions are as follows. First, the science writing heuristic class about 'seasonal change' showed a significant effect on elementary school students' science learning motivation for science class. This is analyzed as a result of the students being more familiar with their science class through science writing heuristic class. Second, the science writing heuristic class about 'seasonal changes' showed a significant effect on elementary school students' scientific attitude. This is because the science writing heuristic class offered elementary school students an opportunity to combine their experiences in daily life with the contents of the class. Third, students' participation, satisfaction, and interest in the science writing heuristic class applied in this study were high. Therefore, it seems to be effective if the science writing heuristic class is used for science class for elementary school students.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.36 no.5
• /
• pp.329-338
• /
• 2003

The purpose of this study is to identify the temporal and spatial variation of stable isotopic compositions of surface waters and shallow ground waters at a local watershed(100$Km^2$) near the Muju area. For oxygen and hydrogen isotope analysis, water samples were collected from 19-22 sites during August, October 2001, through April 2002. Seasonal variation in the isotopic compositions of surface waters was clearly shown. However, the degree of such isotopic variation was highly attenuated in shallow ground waters because of mixing with preexisting ground waters. Isotope values of surface waters and ground waters were very similar in each season, indicating that precipitation/ground water/surface water interactions were very active and continuous in the watershed. Stable isotopic ratios of surface waters in the study area were lighter than those of the downstream reach of Geum River on south, indicating “latitude effect”. Both “altitude effect” and “amount effect” were also shown in the stable isotopic ratios of surface waters in the study area as well as seasonal variation of stable isotopes.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
• /
• 2009.03a
• /
• pp.97-100
• /
• 2009

The surface parameters associated with the land are usually dependent on the climate, and many physical processes that are displayed in the image sensed from the land then exhibit temporal variation with seasonal periodicity. An adaptive feedback system proposed in this study reconstructs a sequence of images remotely sensed from the land surface having the physical processes with seasonal periodicity. The harmonic model is used to track seasonal variation through time, and a Gibbs random field (GRF) is used to represent the spatial dependency of digital image processes. In this study, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was computed for one week composites of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery over the Korean peninsula for 1996 and 2000 using a dynamic technique, and the adaptive reconstruction of harmonic model was then applied to the NDVI time series for tracking changes on the ground surface. The results show that the adaptive approach is potentially very effective for continuously monitoring changes on near-real time.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.328-340
• /
• 2006

In Janghwa-ri of Kanghwa Island morphological changes in four transects, 112 surface, and 2 core sediments were analyzed to understand the seasonal variation of the muddy tidal-flat environment. Sedimentary of facies can be classified into four facies; sand, muddy sand, sandy mud, and silt. During winter, the coarse-grained sediment facies expanded seaward. In the subsurface part of the core sediments, poorly sorted silty sediments dominate the area. According to the Pb-210 isotope analysis, accumulation rates of the tidal flat in Jangwha-ri appear to be $5{\sim}19mm/yr$. In the study area, the result is suggestive of a rapid change in depositional environments in recent years.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.95-105
• /
• 2009

Irregular temporal sampling is a common feature of geophysical and biological time series in remote sensing. This study proposes an on-line system for reconstructing observation image series including bad or missing observation that result from mechanical problems or sensing environmental condition. The surface parameters associated with the land are usually dependent on the climate, and many physical processes that are displayed in the image sensed from the land then exhibit temporal variation with seasonal periodicity. An adaptive feedback system proposed in this study reconstructs a sequence of images remotely sensed from the land surface having the physical processes with seasonal periodicity. The harmonic model is used to track seasonal variation through time, and a Gibbs random field (GRF) is used to represent the spatial dependency of digital image processes. In this study, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image was computed for one week composites of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery over the Korean peninsula, and the adaptive reconstruction of harmonic model was then applied to the NDVI time series from 1996 to 2000 for tracking changes on the ground vegetation. The results show that the adaptive approach is potentially very effective for continuously monitoring changes on near-real time.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.490-490
• /
• 2015

산림 사면에서의 토양층 수문반응은 물순환을 이해하는데 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 토양수분자료를 이용하여 토양수분의 계절적, 공간적 변화를 분석하였다. 연구대상지역은 경기도 파주시 적성면 설마리의 설마천 유역 내에 위치한 범륜사사면과 충청북도 음성군의 청미천 유역내의 수레의산사면이다. 정밀측량을 통해 획득한 수치고도모형(Digital Elevation Model, DEM)을 이용하여 관측지점들을 각각 선정하였다. 대상사면에 토양층별 토양수분의 분포변화를 분석하기 위해 각 지점별 10, 30, 60cm에서 토양수분량 측정시스템(Time Domain Reflectometry, TDR)방식의 토양수분측정장비(miniTRASE)를 설치하여 2시간 간격으로 2014년 3월부터 12월까지 토양수분을 측정하였다. 각 지점별 사면에서 획득된 토양수분 시계열자료는 토양수분의 시공간적 분포특성을 파악하기 위해 지점별 토양수분량의 통계분석(평균, 표준편차, 변동계수)를 수행하였다. 설마천유역의 범륜사사면에서는 2014년도에 특히 강우량이 적어 토양수분의 평균과 표준편차의 월별 변화에서는 기저토양수분 값을 주로 유지하고 강우에 대한 변동성이 크지 않은 것으로 나타났고, 청미천유역의 수레의산 사면에서는 시간적 토양수분변화는 계절적 강우분포 패턴에 따라 반응이 나타났다. 청미천유역의 토양수분자료를 이용하여 토양수분의 계절적, 공간적 변화를 분석한 결과 지표근처 토양층(10, 30cm)와 저층(60cm)에서의 공간적 변화특성이 다르게 나타났다. 이는 저층(60cm)에서의 지표하 흐름, 기반암 존재의 영향차이에 의한 것으로 판단되고, 사면의 위치에 따라 토양수분의 안정화 정도가 다른 것을 확인할 수 있다.