• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경제적 문제

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

An Analytical Study of Geologic Characteristics and Production- Related Problems of Beep Natural Gas Resources (심부 천연가스의 지질학절 부존 환경 특성과 생산관련 현안 문제점 분석 연구)

  • Chang Seungyong
    • 한국석유지질학회:학술대회논문집
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    • autumn
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    • pp.28-46
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    • 2001
  • Natural gas is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases and impurities such as nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon dioxide and a clean energy producing no pollution materials for combustion. Currently, the demand of the natural gas is rapidly increasing due to worldwide environmental problems. According to Hubbert's study in the past, the natural gas was predicted as rapidly depleted resources, and then the results led to high gas price and limitation of usage during 1980s. Afterward, the study of natural gas resources based on geology identified the additional natural gas resources that were not considered in Hubbert's study. They are unconventional gas, additional resources in the existed reservoirs, and natural gas in deep subsurface areas. Such additional resouces made the future of natural gas bright and pormised low and stable gas price in the future. Deep natural gas is defined as the gas existing at or below 15,000ft$(4,752{\cal}m)$ in depth from the surface. According to the study from the U.S. Geological Survey(USGS) in 1995, 1,412 TCF of technically recoverable natural gas was remained to be discovered or developed in the onshore of United States. A significant part of that resource base, 114 TCF, exists at deep sedimentary basins, and it shows wide distribution with various geological environments. In 1995, the deep gas contributed to $6.7\% of total supply amount of natural gas in the United States and is expected to be $18.7\% by 201.5. However, the development of the deep gas is a high risky business due to expensive investment and high portion of dry holes, although it is developed. Thus, for developing the deep gas economically, it is necessary to overcome many technical challenges. In this paper, for increasing success rate of the deep gas, 1) geologic and compositional characteristics, and production cost have been analyzed according to depth, 2) technical problems related to deep gas production have been summarized, and 3) finally future study areas for increasing application of the deep gas have been suggested. For reference, this paper was written based on the study results from USGS and Gas Research Institute(GRI), for the United States is doing the most active R&D in the deep gas area, and thus, has many reliable data.

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Study of Utilization of Natural Zeolites as Functional Materials for Water Purification (II): Adsorption Properties of Heavy Metal Ions by Domestic Zeolites (천연 제올라이트의 수환경 개선용 기능성 소재로의 활용에 관한 연구 (II): 국내산 제올라이트의 중금속 이온 흡착 특성)

    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 2003
  • The adsorption property and ability of domestic zeolites for some heavy metal ions (Ag, Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn, Mn), which may cause a serious environmental problem in industrial wastewater, were evaluated on ore unit through a series of adsorption experiments together with careful examinations of mineral composition and properties of the zeolites. Though the adsorption behavior basically took place in the form of a cation exchange reaction, the higher CEC value does not necessarily to imply the higher adsorption capacity for a specific heavy metal. A general trend of the adsorption selectivity for heavy metals in the zeolites is determined to be as follow: $Ag\geq$Pb>Cr,Cu$\geq$Zn>Mn, but the adsorption properties of heavy metal ions somewhat depend on the species and composition of zeolite. Clinoptilolite tends to adsorb selectively Cu in case of Cr and Cu, whereas heulandite prefers Cr to Cu. A dominant adsorption selectivity of the zeolite ores for Ag and Pb is generally conspicuous regardless of their zeolite species and composition. The zeolite ores exhibit a preferential adsorption especially for $Ag^{+}$ so as not to regenerate when treated with $Na^{+}$ . In the adsorption capacity for heavy meta ions, the zeolites differ in great depending on their species: ferrierite>clinoptilolite>heulandite. Considering the CEC value of mordenite, the mordenite-rich ore appears to be similar to the clinoptilolite ore in the adsorption capacity. The adsorption capacity for heavy metals is not positively proportional to the CEC values of the zeolites measured by the exchange reaction with ammonium ion. In addition, the adsorption capacity roughly tends to depend on the zeolite contents, i.e., the grade of zeolite ore, but the trend is not consistent at all in some ores. These may be caused by the adsorption selectivity for some specific heavy metals, the presence of possible stacking micro-faults and natural cations such as K hardly to exchange in the zeolite. Considering the economic availability and functional effectiveness as natural zeolite resources, clinoptilolite ores could be applicable to utilize the domestic zeolites for the removal of heavy metals.

Production of Alternative Coagulant Using Waste Activated Alumina and Evaluation of Coagulation Activity (폐촉매 부산물로부터 대체 응집제 제조 및 응집성능 평가)

  • Lee, Sangwon;Moon, Taesup;Kim, Hyosoo;Choi, Myungwon;Lee, Deasun;Park, Sangtae;Kim, Changwon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.514-520
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the production potential of alternative coagulant ($Al_2(SO_4)_3$ solution) having the identical coagulation activity with respect to the commercial coagulant was investigated. The raw material of alternative coagulant was a spent catalyst including aluminium (waste activated alumina) generated in the manufacturing process of the polymer. The alternative coagulant was produced through a series of processes: 1) intense heat and grinding, 2) chemical polymerization and substitution with $H_2SO_4$ solution, 3) dissolution and dilution and 4) settling and separation. To determine the optimal operating conditions in the lab-scale autoclave and dissolver, the content of $Al_2O_3$ in alternative coagulant was analyzed according to changes of the purity of sulfuric acid, reaction temperature, injection ratio of sulfuric acid and water in the dissolver. The results showed that the alternative coagulant having the $Al_2O_3$ content of 7~8% was produced under the optimal conditions such as $H_2SO_4$ purity of 50%, reaction temperature of $120^{\circ}C$, injection ratio of $H_2SO_4$ of 5 times and injection ratio of water of 2.3 times in dissolver. In order to evaluate the coagulation activity of the alternative coagulant, the Jar-test was conducted to the effluent in aerobic reactor. As a result, in both cases of Al/P mole of 1.5 and 2.0, the coagulation activity of the alternative coagulant was higher than that of the existing commercial coagulant. When the production costs were compared between the alternative and commercial coagulant through economic analysis, the production cost reduction of about 50% was available in the case of the alternative coagulant. In addition, it was identified that the alternative coagulant could be applied at field wastewater treatment plant without environmental problem through ecological toxicity testing.

Development and Application of the High Speed Weigh-in-motion for Overweight Enforcement (고속축하중측정시스템 개발과 과적단속시스템 적용방안 연구)

  • Kwon, Soon-Min;Suh, Young-Chan
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2009
  • Korea has achieved significant economic growth with building the Gyeongbu Expressway. As the number of new road construction projects has decreased, it becomes more important to maintain optimal status of the current road networks. One of the best ways to accomplish it is weight enforcement as active control measure of traffic load. This study is to develop High-speed Weigh-in-motion System in order to enhance efficiency of weight enforcement, and to analyze patterns of overloaded trucks on highways through the system. Furthermore, it is to review possibilities of developing overweight control system with application of the HS-WIM system. The HS-WIM system developed by this study consists of two sets of an axle load sensor, a loop sensor and a wandering sensor on each lane. A wandering sensor detects whether a travelling vehicle is off the lane or not with the function of checking the location of tire imprint. The sensor of the WIM system has better function of classifying types of vehicles than other existing systems by detecting wheel distance and tire type such as single or dual tire. As a result, its measurement errors regarding 12 types of vehicle classification are very low, which is an advantage of the sensor. The verification tests of the system under all conditions showed that the mean measurement errors of axle weight and gross axle weight were within 15 percent and 7 percent respectively. According to the WIM rate standard of the COST-323, the WIM system of this study is ranked at B(10). It means the system is appropriate for the purpose of design, maintenance and valuation of road infrastructure. The WIM system in testing a 5-axle cargo truck, the most frequently overloaded vehicle among 12 types of vehicles, is ranked at A(5) which means the system is available to control overloaded vehicles. In this case, the measurement errors of axle load and gross axle load were within 8 percent and 5 percent respectively. Weight analysis of all types of vehicles on highways showed that the most frequently overloaded vehicles were type 5, 6, 7 and 12 among 12 vehicle types. As a result, it is necessary to use more effective overweight enforcement system for vehicles which are seriously overloaded due to their lift axles. Traffic volume data depending upon vehicle types is basic information for road design and construction, maintenance, analysis of traffic flow, road policies as well as research.

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프렌차이점에서 사용되는 튀김류의 산패도 및 트랜스지방의 함량 비교

  • Kim, Yeong-Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Sanitation Conference
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    • 2005.12a
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    • pp.76-97
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    • 2005
  • As the recent change of multiformity and taste in clination in eating habit culture is yearly in creasing foods used oil and fats. Because the frying food is especially important snack , it's safty is very essential. In order to know the safty and harmfulness of frying oil and fats. The 20 kinds samples were purchased chicken fried food shops around the north of seoul and kyunggi. The acid value, iodine value, peroxide value, TBA value, fatty acid, carbonyl value, and smoke point of deep fat fried oils were analyzed. Results of analyzed, A company of deep fat frying oil showed stability state and C company and B company of deep fat frying oil is acidification to turned. But D company of deep fat frying oil showed quite a bit acidification progressived of used hydrogenated oil.

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Studies on the utilization of sandy barren lands and sandy farm lands of low productivity -1. Studies on growing rice-plant in sandy barren lands (식량증산을 위한 유휴사지(遊休砂地) 및 사질계(砂質系) 농지(農地) 활용(活用)에 관한 기초적(基礎的) 연구(硏究) -1. 수도(水稻)의 사지재배(砂地栽培)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong Chul;Choe, Gyu Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 1976
  • As a basic studies for increasing food production utilizing sandy barren lands and sandy farmlands of low productivity which distributed widely in Korea, an experiment of growing rice-plant on sandy barren land was undertaken as follows. 1. Variety, IR-667 was adopted and the growing method was a nutrient-irrigation culture which aimed to minimize percolation loss in sand with an automatic contineous supplying nutrient solution for supplmenting the sand characteristics. 2. The growth type price-plant after heading was a typical higher yield plant, that is, numerous, small, narrow, and thickend leaves, straight attitute, dense fasciculated etc. though the rooting of plant after planting was delayed because of using paddy-field grown seedling. 3. The adaptability of rice-plants on sandy land seemed to be different by varieties and IR-667 was more adaptable than ordinary Japonica varieties. 4. Even at the period of heading and maturing, the root system of rice-plant grown on sand showed vigorous growth having more activated apical portions. while, even the lower leaves showed flourished state. 5. The suppling of calcium and magnecium in addition to nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium on sand made notable increase of stem number per plant, grain number per stem and yields.

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Disaster Risk Assessment using QRE Assessment Tool in Disaster Cases in Seoul Metropolitan (서울시 재난 사례 QRE 평가도구를 활용한 재난 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Yong Moon;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2019
  • This study assessed the risk of disaster by using QRE(Quick Risk Estimation - UNISDR Roll Model City of Basic Evaluation Tool) tools for three natural disasters and sixteen social disasters managed by the Seoul Metropolitan Government. The criteria for selecting 19 disaster types in Seoul are limited to disasters that occur frequently in the past and cause a lot of damage to people and property if they occur. We also considered disasters that are likely to occur in the future. According to the results of the QRE tools for disaster type in Seoul, the most dangerous type of disaster among the Seoul city disasters was "suicide accident" and "deterioration of air quality". Suicide risk is high and it is not easy to take measures against the economic and psychological problems of suicide. This corresponds to the Risk ratings(Likelihood ranking score & Severity rating) "M6". In contrast, disaster types with low risk during the disaster managed by the city of Seoul were analyzed as flooding, water leakage, and water pollution accidents. In the case of floods, there is a high likelihood of disaster such as localized heavy rains and typhoons. However, the city of Seoul has established a comprehensive plan to reduce floods and water every five years. This aspect is considered to be appropriate for disaster prevention preparedness and relatively low disaster risk was analyzed. This corresponds to the disaster Risk ratings(Likelihood ranking score & Severity rating) "VL1". Finally, the QRE tool provides the city's leaders and disaster managers with a quick reference to the risk of a disaster so that decisions can be made faster. In addition, the risk assessment using the QRE tool has helped many aspects such as systematic evaluation of resilience against the city's safety risks, basic data on future investment plans, and disaster response.

Korean Family Business Research : A Review and Agenda for Future Research (우리나라 가족기업의 연구동향과 과제)

  • Nam, YoungHo
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.69-92
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    • 2020
  • This study is aimed at the growth and development of family businesses that greatly contribute to Korea's economic development, but the specific research purpose is to firstly examine the research trends and current status of Korean family businesses and compare them with those of developed countries such as the United States. Second, I would like to look at the future research for revitalizing Korean family business research. In addition, we intend to contribute to increasing the interest in this field and the number of researchers involved. The research target of this paper is 212 papers published in professional academic journals for 13 years from 2006 to 2018 when family businesses began to be fully researched in Korea, 112 master's and doctoral dissertations (graduate schools), and 324 totals. As a result of empirical analysis, the number of published papers is increasing more than the initial ones, but it has been on the decline recently. In addition, 57.5% of the journals are papers that do not have specific definitions or simply list the claims of several scholars by analyzing content. Thesis was 33.9%. As for the type of research, qualitative research, which is a conceptual research, is a small number, and empirical research occupies most of the research topics. Research topics and academic dissertations also have a large proportion of management, management strategy, succession, financial accounting, and business performance. In other words, it can be said that the research on family business in Korea corresponds to the early childhood of the United States. First of all, in the future, we need to put more effort into increasing the qualitative research, starting with the definition of a family business, which is an essential problem, in addition to the theory building of family business. Second, as an analysis level of research, we should make family an important level of analysis for existing individuals, groups, and organizations. Third, the research subject and research area should be expanded. It is desperately necessary to study large companies including chaebols, mainly from small and medium-sized companies, which are the existing research areas of family business. In addition, it is considered that it is necessary to appropriately introduce various theories suitable for the interdisciplinary study, which is the characteristic of the family business, for example, theories of family science, psychology, and sociology. Fourth, it should build the research infrastructure.

Factors Affecting the Registration and Access Levels of the Pilot Project for the General Physician System among People with Disabilities (장애인 건강주치의 시범사업 수요자의 등록 및 이용수준 영향 요인 분석)

  • Eunhee Choe;Yeojeong Gu;Seungji Lim
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.185-195
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    • 2024
  • Background: Disabled people have particularly restricted access to health care. In response to this, the pilot project for the general physician (GP) system for disabled people was implemented in 2018, based on the rights of people with disability to the Health Act in South Korea. However, its participants were 0.2% among the total of those with severe disabilities in 2021. Therefore, this study examined the factors related to registering with a GP and the access level to its services to suggest implications for activating the participation of disabled people. Methods: We analyzed factors affecting the registration with a GP and the number of using the services among the participants of the GP system during May 2018 and December 2021 by conducting hierarchical logistic regression and hierarchical regression. The data were linked with the national health insurance data to examine various predictors, including disability types, socioeconomic status, health status, and GP registration. Results: As a result of analyzing the factors affecting whether or not to register for the pilot project, those with disabilities (physical disabilities, brain lesions, visual, intellectual, mental, and autistic disability) eligible for disability care (odds ratio [OR], 4.157) than other disability, and those living in metropolitan (OR, 4.330) or cities (OR, 3.332) than rural residences were highly likely to enroll the pilot study. Health-related variables also predicted the registration status of the pilot project. The predictors related to GP enrollment types (membership type: general health or disability care, GP's affiliation: clinics or hospitals) significantly influenced levels of access to services. Conclusion: It is necessary to develop the GP project for disabled people by considering the variation in types of disability, residences, and health. Further study will be needed to investigate the impact of GPs on the level of participation among disabled people.