• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.19-43
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• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

• Korean Architects
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• no.12 s.392
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• pp.74-78
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• 2001

많은 국내 기업들이 중국으로부터 되돌아 오지만, 한편으로 더 많은 기업들이 중국으로 진출하고 있다는 사실은 중국에 대한 관심을 단적으로 짐작하게 한다. 중국의 GDP(국내총생산)는 1978년 개혁 이후 22년간 연평균 9.5% 이상의 고도성장을 이루었으며, 2000년을 기점으로 1조 달러를 넘어섰다. G7의 나라별 GDP규모가 대체로 1조 달러를 넘어선다는 것으로 이 수치의 의미를 알 수 있다. 중국이 미국과 같은 수준에 도달하는 시점에 대해, 지금과 같은 8%의 경제성장률을 지속적으로 유지할 경우 2050년이 될 것이라고 예상한다. 학자에 따라서는 이보다 훨씬 이른 2020년이라고 예측하기도 하지만, 여하튼 중국은 건국 100주년이 되는 2050년에 미국에 버금가는 세계의 경제강국이 되겠다는 목표를 갖고 있다. 여기에서 흥미로운 사실은 아시아 경제위기 발생 이후 미국과 중국이 세계경제 속에서 차지하는 위상이 뚜렷이 동반 상승했다는 것이다. 당시 일부에서는 미국이 중국을 견제하기 위해 투기성 자금을 동원, 아시아 금융위기를 고의로 터뜨렸다는 소위 음모론을 제기하기도 했지만, 어쩌면 세계경제가 조만간 미국과 중국의 '쌍끌이'에 의해 움직일 가능성도 높아지고 있다. 청도는 이러한 중국 경제성장의 중추적인 역할을 담당하는 도시이며, 이미 지난 호에서 청도의 경제상황과 역사, 그리고 도시와 건축을 살펴보았다. 이번 호와 다음 호에는 (주)무영종합건축사사무소의 합자회사 설립과정과 운영, 전망, 그리고 진행 프로젝트를 소개할 것이다. 먼저, 합자회사인 TMI의 설립과정과 운영, 그리고 첫 프로젝트인 양광해안 주거단지에 대해 살펴보기로 한다.

• Information and Communications Magazine
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• v.25 no.11
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• pp.7-13
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• 2008

IT'와 '융합'은 최근 사회, 경제, 문화 전반에서 가장 빈번하게 접하는 단어가 되었다. 21세기를 여는 핵심 요소였던 IT는 성장 정체와 위기론을 거쳐 새로운 영역을 창출할 것으로 기대되고 있다. 본고에서는 다양한 모습으로 태동하고 있는 IT기반 융합산업에 의미를 부여하고 그 정책방향을 제시하고자 한다.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.8
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• pp.119-143
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• 1999

우리 나라의 에너지산업은 광범한 구조조정의 단계에 접어들고 있다. 경제위기 극복과정에서 에너지산업의 선진화, 효율화의 필요성은 강조되어 왔으며 개혁 차원에서 전력부문을 필두로 사상 유례없는 광범한 구조조정 작업이 진전되고 있다. 이 과정에서 민영화, 자율화, 규제완화, 경쟁도 제구 대외개방과 같은 우리 에너지산업 구조개편방향을 제시하는 많은 지침들이 논의되어 왔다. 당위론적(當爲論的) 차원에서는 당연한 일 이다. (중략)

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.81-93
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• 2010

Korea experienced a financial crisis in 1997. Since then Korea economy has undergone severe change such as exchange rate regime from the market average exchange rate system to the free floating exchange rate system in 1997, and the currency rate fluctuation has been widening. We empirically analyze the determination of the Won/Dollar exchange rate based on the monetary approach. We employ Lucas (1982), Bilson (1978) and Frankel (1979) models and consider some mixed models. We make use of monthly data of money supply, income, interest rate, capital balance, terms of trade, and the yen/dollar exchange rate over the period 1990-2009. We compare the empirical results of cointegration tests and the vector error correction model(VECM) from the two regimes, the pre and post korean financial crisis. The won/dollar exchange rate has long-run relationship with the variables in the monetarist models in the two regimes. For the post crisis regime, the Bilson model is the best and the long run variables also affect the short run dynamics of the won/dollar exchange rate.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2024.05a
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• pp.576-579
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• 2024

경제 위기 대비를 위해 인공지능을 활용한 주식시장 변동성 이상을 탐지하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 글로벌 이슈와 경제 위기 대비를 위해 주식시장 변동성 예측의 중요성이 부각되고 있으며, 기존의 주식시장 변동성 지수인 VIX 의 한계로 인해 더 복잡한 모델 및 인공지능을 활용한 연구에 관심이 집중되고 있다. 기존의 주식시장 변동성 예측에 관한 연구들은 통계적인 방법을 사용했으며 인공지능을 이용한 연구 또한 대부분 이상치 구간을 표시하여 예측을 목표로 하고 있으나 이러한 접근법은 라벨이 있는 데이터 수집 어려움, 클래스 불균형 문제가 있다. 본 연구는 인공지능을 활용한 주식시장 변동성 탐지에 기여하고 지도 학습 방식 대신 비지도 학습 기반의 이상탐지모델을 사용하여 주식시장 변동성을 예측하는 새로운 방법론을 제안한다. 본 연구에서 개발한 인공지능 모델은 IsolationForest 모델을 활용하며, 시계열 데이터를 전처리한 후 정상성을 확보하는 등의 과정을 거친다. 실험 결과로 인공지능 모델이 주요 경제이슈를 이상치로 검출하는 성능을 확인하였으며 재현율 약 93.6%, 정밀도 100%로 높은 성능을 달성했다.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.42
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• pp.229-249
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• 2015

As the post-cold war era and globalization go on, national security problems which were not traditional national security problems such as terrorism, crime, environmental disasters, economic crises, cyber-terrorism, diseases, and energy problems threat humanity and nations and demands changes. Also, with the change, the concept of "big government" has emerged as the role of nation expanded. The modern society sees every country change from small government to big government in order to realize the establishment of welfare state. A comprehensive interpretation of security is needed in order to comprehensive protection of citizens beyond outside invasion such as crime, new disaster, terrorism. In Korea, incidents such as Cheonan-Ham, Yeonpeyong-Do, foot-and-mouth disease, Ddos terrorism, pirates hostages, mad cow disease, AI are happening and the humanitarian support for North Korea and the summit of South and North Korea are at a standstill. Also, National emergency management system, comprehensive emergency management center, countrol tower, national security system, cooperation with citizens, establishment of legal and institutional system are needed. The importance of this research is on the reestablishment of new national security and emergency management system according to the comparison between the national security and counter-terrorism system of Korea and that of the United States which is a leading country in this field. Also, the establishment of national emergency management act is needed as a statute for effective function as currently various laws and administrative organizations are dispersed.

• 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.131-134
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• 2008

현재 우리나라 경제는 전반적인 후퇴 추세로 인해 위기감이 고조되고 있으며, 2000년대 이후 우리나라 주력 산업이었던 IT산업은 낮은 고용효과 및 성장동력으로서의 한계성을 드러내는 등 IT산업의 위기론이 제기되고 있다. 따라서 본 고에서는 우리 경제의 중장기적 발전방향을 탐색하기 위해서 그 동안 우리나라 경제에 대한 IT산업의 기여도와 현재까지 성공할 수 있게 만든 요소, 그리고 여전해 해결이 필요한 문제점들을 살펴보았다. 새로운 도약을 위해서 우리나라 산업 경쟁력을 분석한 후, 경쟁력 제고를 통해 IT산업이 성장동력으로서의 역할을 다하기 위해서 필요한 IT R&D 추진방향을 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.70-83
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• 2017

Traditionally, economic growth has been uneven over the space. It has also been true for the recovery from social and economic crisis in old industrial areas of the advanced economies. Even if many of such old industrial areas were seriously affected by de-industrialization, some areas have been showing progress, while others have not been so. While interpreting this phenomenon used to be a key issue in economics, main stream liberal economic theorists' explanation was uneven distribution of economic resources, such as raw materials, labour and money. However, some revolutionary economic theorists have brought in the concept of "history" in explaining the phenomenon. Path dependence theorists, for example, interpretate the emergence of different growth paths with the concept of historical accidents. This contrasts to the recent argument of the group of scholars suggesting the concept of "regional resilience," who argue that uneven growth and different growth paths are originated from different regional resilience. This paper introduces the backgrounds, characteristics and utilities of the two theories: path dependence theory and the concept of regional resilience.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.662-671
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• 1996

Since the world's economic and political structures have changed, the term 'globlization' has shown up as a dominant power and as a necessity for regional and national development. Each nation is responding to the globalization process economically and politically in various ways. In general, however, the economic response to the globalization is economic restructuring from the Fordist industries to 'flexible specialization'. And the political response to the globalization is 'global localization' as a new type of local politics(i.e., local policy activism or growth-enhancing local development policies). The crisis of Fordism shifted the role of local governments towards more involovement with local economic development. Local governments are mobilizing for loca economic development, they are taken into a process of institutional change that tends to redefine their responsibilities inside the state. Local governments thus tend to act as an entrepreneur in order to restructure theiir local economies and to compete with other national and international regions. State restructuring towards enerepreneurialism and efficient regional policy pursuing a pro-growth coalition trategy is chosen as a new mode of regulation for the post-Fordism at the local level. The flexible specialization as the post-Fordist economy and the local government as an entrepreneur are the global choice for globalization and a post-Fordist society. The paper focuses on the regulation theory which comprises the political economic perspective on resturcturing. Economic restructuring and state restructuring will be discussed in detail. And the paper tries to combine the economic globalization and the global localization as economic and political responses to globalization.