• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경영성과모형

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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

A Study on the Priority of RoboAdvisor Selection Factors: From the Perspective of Analyzing Differences between Users and Providers Using AHP (로보어드바이저 선정요인의 우선순위에 관한 연구: AHP를 이용한 사용자와 제공자의 차이분석 관점으로)

  • Young Woong Woo;Jae In Oh;Yun Hi Chang
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.145-162
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    • 2023
  • Asset management is a complex and difficult field that requires insight into numerous variables and even human psychology. Thus, it has traditionally been the domain of professionals, and these services have been expensive to obtain. Changes are taking place in these markets, and the driving force is the digital revolution, so-called the fourth industrial revolution. Among them, the Robo-Advisor service using artificial intelligence technology is the highlight. The reason is that it is possible to popularize investment advisory services with convenient accessibility and low cost. This study aims to clarify what factors are critically important when selecting robo-advisors for service users and providers in Korea, and what perception differences exist in the selection factors between user and provider groups. The framework of the study was based on the marketing mix 4C model, and the design and analysis of the model used Delphi survey and AHP. Through the study design, 4 main criteria and 15 sub-criteria were derived, and the findings of the study are as follows. First, the importance of the four main criteria was in the order of customer needs > customer convenience > customer cost > customer communication for both groups. Second, looking at the 15 sub-criteria, it was found that investment purpose coverage, investment propensity coverage, fee level and accessibility factors were the most important. Third, when comparing between groups, the user group found that the fee level and accessibility factors were the most important, and the provider group recognized the investment purpose coverage and investment propensity coverage factors as important. This study derived useful implications in practice. First, when designing for the spread of the robo-advisor service, the basis for constructing a user-oriented system was prepared by considering the priority of importance according to the weight difference between the four main criteria and the 15 sub-criteria. In addition, the difference in priority of each sub-criteria shown in the group comparison and the cause of the sub-criteria with large weight differences were identified. In addition, it was suggested that it is very important to form a consensus to resolve the difference in perception of factors between those in charge of strategy and marketing and system development within the provider group. Academically, it is meaningful in that it is an early study that presented various perspectives and perspectives by deriving a number of robo-advisor selection factors. Through the findings of this study, it is expected that a successful user-oriented robo-advisor system can be built and spread in Korea to help users.

Development and Validation of the Social Entrepreneurship Measurement Tools: From an Organizational-Level Behavioral Perspective (사회적기업가정신 척도 개발 및 타당화 연구: 조직차원의 행동적 관점에서)

  • Cho, Han Jun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.97-113
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    • 2023
  • In order to generalize the social entrepreneurship model with cooperation orientation and increase the possibility of using the model, this study developed a measurement tool and tested it with 389 executives of social enterprises. For the development of the measurement tool, preliminary measurement items were formed through review of previous studies, and a questionnaire was tentatively composed of 40 measurement items in five areas through an expert panel review of the measurement items. A total of 389 questionnaires were collected by conducting a questionnaire survey targeting Korean social enterprise managers, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using 375 questionnaires that could be analyzed. Five factors for 24 items were derived through exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis. Through a series of analysis processes including primary and secondary confirmatory factor analysis, the model fit of the newly constructed social entrepreneurship research model was confirmed, and the validity and reliability of the measurement tools were verified. As a result of this study, the model fit of the social entrepreneurship model(social value orientation; innovativeness; pro-activeness; risk-taking; cooperation orientation) is verified, thereby improving the theoretical explanatory power of social entrepreneurship research and at the same time providing the basis and basis for theoretical expansion of follow-up research. The study proved the possibility of generalizing the social entrepreneurship model with added cooperation orientation, and at the same time, the measurement tool used in this study was widely used as a tool to measure social entrepreneurship theoretically and practically. In addition, it was confirmed that the cooperation orientation is manifested in corporate decision-making and activity behaviors for resource mobilization and capacity building, opportunity and performance creation, social capital and network reinforcement, and governance establishment of social enterprises.

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A Study on the Factors Affecting the Success of Technology Marketing (기술마케팅 성공에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 분석)

  • Hwang, Nam-Gu;Oh, Young-Ho;Kim, Kyoung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.2358-2370
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    • 2010
  • This research aims to empirically analyze the factors that affect the success of technology marketing by Korean universities. The total of 207 universities which successfully made technology transfers from 2006 to 2008 was examined to test the nine hypotheses. For the purpose of testing the hypotheses, technology infrastructure (research costs and the number of SCIE papers), the compensation system for the patents (application and registration), the number of patents (application and registration), TLO staff (the number of people in charge of technology transfer and the job experience in industries), the compensation system for technology transfers (researchers and contributors), and attitudes of university management and industries were analyzed with structural equation methods to figure out their effects on the revenues of technology transfer. The results of this research are summarized as follows. First, technology infrastructures of universities were found to have positive effects on securing patents. As the university research costs in the field of science and technology are increases, the research capabilities are enhanced and this a larger number of researchers are conducted. Second, this research shows that compensation systems for patent application and registration in universities have motivated researchers to take out patents for the outputs of their research. Third, the number of patents universities possess was found to have a positive effect on technology transfer. An increase in the number of patents universities possess implies an increase in the diversity and excellence of the target technologies for transfer. Fourth, the number of patents universities possess turned out to have a positive effect on TLO staff. The number of experts in charge of technology transfer including technology dealers, valuation analysis and patent attorneys should be increased as target technologies for transfer increase according to the increase of patents possessed. Because the technologies are transferee from universities to businesses, businesses (job) experience of TLO staff in industries are also important. This research is meaningful because it has identified the factors affecting the results of technology transfer by employing structural equation methods. In particular, an official governmental survey data for the academic-industrial cooperation were analyzed systematically in terms of technology infrastructure, compensation systems related to patents, the number of patents, TLO staff, compensation systems for technology transfer, and attitudes of university management and industries. All these facts might could differentiate this study from the previous studies.

Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

The Effect of Information Quality and System Quality on Knowledge Service Competence: Focusing on Knowledge Service Types (지식서비스의 정보품질과 시스템품질이 지식서비스 역량에 미치는 영향: 지식서비스 유형을 중심으로)

  • Geun-Wan Park;Hyun-Ji Park;Sung-Hoon Mo;Cheol-Hyun Lim;Hee-Seok Choi;Seok-Hyoung Lee;Hye-Jin Lee;Seung-June Hwang;Chang-Hee Han
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2019
  • The knowledge resources take a role in promoting the sustainable growth of organization. Therefore, it is important for the members of organization to acquire knowledge consistently so that the company can continue to grow. Knowledge service is the field that provides information and infrastructure which enable the members of organization to acquire new knowledge. As we recognized the importance of knowledge services, we analyzed the level of knowledge service management and development through the impact of knowledge quality on user capabilities. First, the matrix of knowledge patterns was presented based on the type of information and the level of customer interaction. According to patterns, the knowledge service was classified into three types of information providing, information analysis, and infrastructure, and then the results of structural model analysis were presented for each type. It found that the impact of knowledge service quality on user competence was different according to the type of service. The results suggested new indicators for measuring the performance of knowledge services, and provided information for reconstructing services based on the user considering the integrated operation of knowledge service and organizational designing knowledge service.

The Impact of Self-efficacy on Job Engagement and Job Performance of SMEs' Members: SEM-ANN Analysis (중소기업 조직구성원의 자기효능감이 직무열의와 직무성과에 미치는 영향: 구조모형분석-인공신경망 분석의 적용)

  • Kang, Tae-Won;Lee, Yong-Ki;Lee, Yong-Suk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of self-efficacy of SMEs' organization members on job engagement and job performance, and to analyze the difference between gender and marital status by applying SEM-ANN analysis. To accomplish the study purpose, 285 valid samples were collected from 400 SMEs' organization members and analyzed. In this study, self - efficacy consisted of three sub-dimensions: self-confidence, self-regulation efficacy, and task difficulty preference. As a result of the analysis, self - efficacy such as self-confidence, self-regulation efficacy, and task difficulty preference had a positive direct effect on job engagement. In addition, self-efficacy and self-control efficacy have a positive effect on job performance, but the preference of task difficulty has no significant effect. In addition, job engagement has a positive(+) effect on job performance, and has a mediating role in the relationship between self-efficacy and job performance. Also, married males preferred self-regulation efficacy, while females preferred self-regulation and self-control efficacy regardless of marital status. The purpose of this study is to present the framework of self-efficacy-job engagement-job performance of SMEs by measuring the self-efficacy related researches mainly in education and service industries, and is meaningful that companies can help to find the basis of management of organization members by gender and marital status of organization members. In addition, the SEM-ANN analysis process of this study is different in that it explains the nonlinear (nonobservative) relationship that can analyze the influence or the combination of the reference variables in the linear (compensatory) relation using the SEM.

A Study on the Construction Plan of Smart Fish Farm Platform in the Future (미래 스마트 양식 플랫폼의 구축방안에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Joowon;Lee, Jongsub;Kim, Youngae;Shin, Yongtae
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2020
  • As the consumption of fishery products continues to increase, aquaculture industry has emerged instead of fishing industry facing limitations of fish stock resources. Recently, smart fish farming industry has rapidly developed through convergence with 4th Industrial Revolution technology. Accordingly, it is important to derive a future model of smart fish farming platforms in order to secure the superiority of the aquaculture industry and the technology standard hegemony. In this study, the future direction of smart fish farm platform was derived through the analysis of environment related to politics, economy, society, and technology related to smart fish farming by applying PEST methodology of macro-environment analysis. It is expected that it will help the public and industrial circles in planning and implementing related projects by including the entire process of value chain of aquaculture industry of breeding, production, management and distribution, and by presenting advanced models based on artificial intelligence and digital twin.

Consumer Benefit and Intention to Participate in Creating Shared Value(CSV) Based on Consumer Perception (공유가치창출(Creating Shared Value)에 대한 소비자인식 및 수용과정에 따른 소비자혜택과 참여의도에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Hyesun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2018
  • Creating shared value (CSV) is a strategic approach connected to social value by moving away from a corporation's profit and competition oriented strategies. This study attempted to analyze consumers' perception and intention to participate in corporation's CSV practices. The results are as follows. First, consumers tend to have positive perception toward the practicability of CSV strategy. Second, a structural equation model was established and verified to analyze the relationship among the perceived practicability of CSV, perceived benefits for corporations and consumers and consumers' intention to participate in CSV strategy. Specifically, the result showed that consumers' perception on the practicability of CSV has positive effect on the perceived benefit for corporations. Also, consumers' perception on the benefits they may receive through CSV was positively affected by the perception on the benefits for corporations. The result indicated that consumers' perceptions on benefits of CSV have positive influence on consumers' intention to participate in CSV strategy.

Factors Influencing Acceptance of Mobile Services: Moderating Effects of Service Type (서비스 유형의 조절효과를 고려한 모바일 서비스 수용에 영향을 미치는 요인: 모바일 게임과 모바일 금융 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Chung, Soo-Yeon;Park, Cheol
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2007
  • The focus of this research is to investigate which factors are important for the adoption of mobile service and the moderating effects of service types such as hedonic and utilitarian service between those factors and the adoption of mobile service. The empirical results based on the data gathered from 169 users of mobile games and finance service showed that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and trust had significant impacts on the adoption of mobile service whereas social influence did not. Also the moderating effect of service type was found that perceived usefulness and trust have more impacts on adoption of mobile service in mobile finance rather than mobile game. Base on these empirical results, this study suggests the managerial implications for mobile service marketing.