• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경기선행지수

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Using noise filtering and sufficient dimension reduction method on unstructured economic data (노이즈 필터링과 충분차원축소를 이용한 비정형 경제 데이터 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Jae Keun Yoo;Yujin Park;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2024
  • Text indicators are increasingly valuable in economic forecasting, but are often hindered by noise and high dimensionality. This study aims to explore post-processing techniques, specifically noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, to normalize text indicators and enhance their utility through empirical analysis. Predictive target variables for the empirical analysis include monthly leading index cyclical variations, BSI (business survey index) All industry sales performance, BSI All industry sales outlook, as well as quarterly real GDP SA (seasonally adjusted) growth rate and real GDP YoY (year-on-year) growth rate. This study explores the Hodrick and Prescott filter, which is widely used in econometrics for noise filtering, and employs sufficient dimension reduction, a nonparametric dimensionality reduction methodology, in conjunction with unstructured text data. The analysis results reveal that noise filtering of text indicators significantly improves predictive accuracy for both monthly and quarterly variables, particularly when the dataset is large. Moreover, this study demonstrated that applying dimensionality reduction further enhances predictive performance. These findings imply that post-processing techniques, such as noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, are crucial for enhancing the utility of text indicators and can contribute to improving the accuracy of economic forecasts.

A Study on the Vascular Flora and its Management Plan at The Forest Genetic Resource Reserve of Mt. Munsu (Gimpo) (문수산(김포) 산림유전자원보호구역 관속식물상 변화 및 관리방안)

  • Yun, Ho Geun;Lee, Ah young;An, Jong Bin;Hwang, Tae Young;Lee, Jong Won
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.311-338
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    • 2021
  • This study was investigated to find out the distribution of vascular flora and remarkable plants and its factors and management plan in the forest genetic resource reserve of Mt. Munsu, located in the DMZ and DMZ border area in Gimpo, Gyeonggi-do province. The survey was carried out 17 times from April 2019 to October 2020. First of all, in the forest genetic resource reserve of the Mt. Munsu, a total of 444 taxa in 95 families, 276 genera, 395 species, 13 subspecies, 33 varieties and 3 forms. This result was found to be about 9.09% of the total 4,881 taxa of vascular plants in Korea. In addition, endemic plants were classified as 6 taxa. Floristic special and rare plants were identified as 39 taxa and 3 taxa, respectively. Lastly, the invasive alien plants that appeared in Mt. Munsu of the forest genetic resource reserve were observed in 58 taxa. Moreover, the naturalization rate was 13.1% and the urbanization index was calculated to be 18.0%. As a result of comparing the vascular flora at the forest genetic resource reserve on Mt. Munsu identified in this study with previous studies, it was found the number of taxa was decreased compared to the previous studies, despite the fact that the recent survey section was wider and more varies routes were investigated. In particular, it was confirmed that the number of rare and endemic plants decreased significantly, and the number of invasive plants greatly spread to forest roads and hiking trails. Therefore, it is considered that the forest rest year system should be introduced for the conservation and management of native plants in the forest genetic resource reserve.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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