• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정성 검증

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Optimum Management Plan for Soil Contamination Facilities (특정토양오염관리대상시설의 최적 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Soo;Kim, Ki-Ho;Kim, Hae-Keum;Choi, Sang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.293-300
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    • 2012
  • This study was to investigate the unsuitable rate of the storage facilities, the changes in corrosion process over time after installation according to the status, the time to install the facilities, years elapsed after facilities installation, inspection of methods and motivation, and so on, based on the results of the inspection at the petroleum storage facilities conducted by domestic soil-relate specialized agency to derive optimal management plans which meet the status of soil contamination facilities. The results showed that the facilities more than 5 years after the initial leak test at the time of the installation need to be inspected periodically by considering costs of leak test and remediation of polluted soil. The inspection period can be decided by cost and leak test methods showing discrepancies for the results obtained from individual test whether it was direct or indirect. To compensate these matters, we suggested that the direct inspection method on regular schedule is recommended. On the other hand, the inspection can be voluntarily completed to ease burden of the results by inspection or equivalent level to this inspection method. Also, it may need improved construction supervision and performance test system to minimize the occurrence of the nature defects in installing the facilities as well as the upgrade program for the facilities during intervals of inspection period.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Home Economics teachers' concern on creativity and personality education in Home Economics classes: Based on the concerns based adoption model(CBAM) (가정과 교사의 창의.인성 교육에 대한 관심과 실행에 대한 인식 - CBAM 모형에 기초하여-)

  • Lee, In-Sook;Park, Mi-Jeong;Chae, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.117-134
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the stage of concern, the level of use, and the innovation configuration of Home Economics teachers regarding creativity and personality education in Home Economics(HE) classes. The survey questionnaires were sent through mails and e-mails to middle-school HE teachers in the whole country selected by systematic sampling and convenience sampling. Questionnaires of the stages of concern and the levels of use developed by Hall(1987) were used in this study. 187 data were used for the final analysis by using SPSS/window(12.0) program. The results of the study were as following: First, for the stage of concerns of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, the information stage of concerns(85.51) was the one with the highest response rate and the next high in the following order: the management stage of concerns(81.88), the awareness stage of concerns(82.15), the refocusing stage of concerns(68.80), the collaboration stage of concerns(61.97), and the consequence stage of concerns(59.76). Second, the levels of use of HE teachers on creativity and personality education was highest with the mechanical levels(level 3; 21.4%) and the next high in the following order: the orientation levels of use(level 1; 20.9%), the refinement levels(level 5; 17.1%), the non-use levels(level 0; 15.0%), the preparation levels(level 2; 10.2%), the integration levels(level 6; 5.9%), the renewal levels(level 7; 4.8%), the routine levels(level 4; 4.8%). Third, for the innovation configuration of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, more than half of the HE teachers(56.1%) mainly focused on personality education in their HE classes; 31.0% of the HE teachers performed both creativity and personality education; a small number of teachers(6.4%) focused on creativity education; the same number of teachers(6.4%) responded that they do not focus on neither of the two. Examining the level and type of performance HE teachers applied, the average score on the performance of creativity and personality education was 3.76 out of 5.00 and the mean of creativity component was 3.59 and of personality component was 3.94, higher than standard. For the creativity education, openness/sensitivity(3.97) education was performed most and the next most in the following order: problem-solving skill(3.79), curiosity/interest(3.73), critical thinking(3.63), problem-finding skill(3.61), originality(3.57), analogy(3.47), fluency/adaptability(3.46), precision(3.46), imagination(3.37), and focus/sympathy(3.37). For the personality education, the following components were performed in order from most to least: power of execution(4.07), cooperation/consideration/just(4.06), self-management skill(4.04), civic consciousness(4.04), career development ability(4.03), environment adaptability(3.95), responsibility/ownership(3.94), decision making(3.89), trust/honesty/promise(3.88), autonomy(3.86), and global competency(3.55). Regarding what makes performing creativity and personality education difficult, most HE teachers(64.71%) chose the lack of instructional materials and 40.11% of participants chose the lack of seminar and workshop opportunity. 38.5% chose the difficulty of developing an evaluation criteria or an evaluation tool while 25.67% responded that they do not know any means of performing creativity and personality education. Regarding the better way to support for creativity and personality education, the HE teachers chose in order from most to least: 'expansion of hands-on activities for students related to education on creativity and personality'(4.34), 'development of HE classroom culture putting emphasis on creativity and personality'(4.29), 'a proper curriculum on creativity and personality education that goes along with students' developmental stages'(4.27), 'securing enough human resource and number of professors who will conduct creativity and personality education'(4.21), 'establishment of the concept and value of the education on creativity and personality'(4.09), and 'educational promotion on creativity and personality education supported by local communities and companies'(3.94).

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The Analyses of Treatment Results and Prognostic Factors in Supradiaphragmatic CS I-II Hodgkin's Disease (횡경막상부에 국한된 임상적 병기 1-2기 호지킨병에서 치료 결과와 예후 인자의 분석)

  • Park Won;Suh Chang Ok;Chung Eun Ji;Cho Jae Ho;Chung Hyun Cheol;Kim Joo Hang;Roh Jae Kyung;Hahn Jee Sook;Kim Gwi Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : The aim of this retrospective study is to assess the necessity of s1aging laparotomy in the management of supradiaphragmatic CS I-II Hodgkin's disease. Prognostic factors and the usefulness of prognostic factor groups were also analyzed. Materials and Methods : From 1985 to 1995, fifty one Patients who were diagnosed as supradiaphragmatic CS I-II Hodgkin's disease at Yonsei Cancer Center in Seoul, Korea were enrolled in this study Age range was 4 to 67 with median age of 30. The number of patients with each CS IA, II A, and IIB were 16, 25, and 10, respectively. Radiotherapy(RT) was delivered using 4 or 6 MV photon beam to a total dose of 19.5 to 55.6Gy (median dose : 45Gy) with a 1.5 to 1.BGy per fraction. Chemotherapy(CT) was given in 2-12 cycles(median : 6 cycles). Thirty one Patients were treated with RT alone, 4 patients with CT alone and 16 patients with combined chemoradiotherapy. RT volumes varied from involved fields(3), subtotal nodal fields(18) or mantle fields(26). Results : Five-year disease-free survival rate(DFS) was $78.0\%$ and overall survival rate(05) was $87.6\%$. Fifty Patients achieved a complete remission after initial treatment and 8 patients were relapsed. Salvage therapy was given to 7 patients, 1 with RT alone, 4 with CT alone, 2 with RT+CT. Only two patients were successfully salvaged. Feminine gender and large media-stinal adenopathy were significant adverse prognostic factors in the univariate analysis for DFS. The significant adverse prognostic factors of OS were B symptom and clinical stage. When patients were analyzed according to European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer(EORTC) prognostic factor groups, the DFS in Patients with very favorable, favorable and unfavorable group was 100, 100 and $55.8\%$(p<0.05), and the 05 in each patients' group was 100, 100 and $75.1\%$(p<0.05), respectively. In very favorable and favorable groups, the DFS and 05 were all $100\%$ by RT alone, but in unfavorable group, RT with CT had a lesser relapse rate than RT alone. The subtotal nodal irradiation had better OFS than mantle RT in patients treated with RT. Conclusion : In present study, the DFS and OS in patients who did not undergo s1aging laparotomy were similar with the results in the literatures of which patients were surgically staged. Therefore, we may suggest that staging laparotomy would not influence the outcome of treatments. In univariate analysis, gender, large mediastinal adenopathy. B symptoms and clinical stage were significant prognostic factors for the survival rate. We confirm the usefulness of EORTC prognostic factor groups which may be a good.

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A Methodology to Develop a Curriculum based on National Competency Standards - Focused on Methodology for Gap Analysis - (국가직무능력표준(NCS)에 근거한 조경분야 교육과정 개발 방법론 - 갭분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Byeon, Jae-Sang;Ahn, Seong-Ro;Shin, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2015
  • To train the manpower to meet the requirements of the industrial field, the introduction of the National Qualification Frameworks(hereinafter referred to as NQF) was determined in 2001 by National Competency Standards(hereinafter referred to as NCS) centrally of the Office for Government Policy Coordination. Also, for landscape architecture in the construction field, the "NCS -Landscape Architecture" pilot was developed in 2008 to be test operated for 3 years starting in 2009. Especially, as the 'realization of a competence-based society, not by educational background' was adopted as one of the major government projects in the Park Geun-Hye government(inaugurated in 2013) the NCS system was constructed on a nationwide scale as a detailed method for practicing this. However, in the case of the NCS developed by the nation, the ideal job performing abilities are specified, therefore there are weaknesses of not being able to reflect the actual operational problem differences in the student level between universities, problems of securing equipment and professors, and problems in the number of current curricula. For soft landing to practical curriculum, the process of clearly analyzing the gap between the current curriculum and the NCS must be preceded. Gap analysis is the initial stage methodology to reorganize the existing curriculum into NCS based curriculum, and based on the ability unit elements and performance standards for each NCS ability unit, the discrepancy between the existing curriculum within the department or the level of coincidence used a Likert scale of 1 to 5 to fill in and analyze. Thus, the universities wishing to operate NCS in the future measuring the level of coincidence and the gap between the current university curriculum and NCS can secure the basic tool to verify the applicability of NCS and the effectiveness of further development and operation. The advantages of reorganizing the curriculum through gap analysis are, first, that the government financial support project can be connected to provide quantitative index of the NCS adoption rate for each qualitative department, and, second, an objective standard is provided on the insufficiency or sufficiency when reorganizing to NCS based curriculum. In other words, when introducing in the subdivisions of the relevant NCS, the insufficient ability units and the ability unit elements can be extracted, and the supplementary matters for each ability unit element per existing subject can be extracted at the same time. There is an advantage providing directions for detailed class program and basic subject opening. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment and Labor must gather people from the industry to actively develop and supply the NCS standard a practical level to systematically reflect the requirements of the industrial field the educational training and qualification, and the universities wishing to apply NCS must reorganize the curriculum connecting work and qualification based on NCS. To enable this, the universities must consider the relevant industrial prospect and the relation between the faculty resources within the university and the local industry to clearly select the NCS subdivision to be applied. Afterwards, gap analysis must be used for the NCS based curriculum reorganization to establish the direction of the reorganization more objectively and rationally in order to participate in the process evaluation type qualification system efficiently.

A Study on Profitability of the Allianced Discount Program with Credit Cards and Loyalty Cards in Food & Beverage Industry (제휴카드 할인프로그램이 외식업의 수익성에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Young Sik;Cha, Kyoung Cheon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.55-78
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    • 2011
  • Recently strategic alliance between business firms has become prevalent to overcome increasing competitive threats and to supplement resource limitation of individual firms. As one of allianced sales promotion activities, a new type of discount program, so called "Alliance Card Discount", is introduced with the partnership of credit cards and loyalty cards. The program mainly pursues short-term sales growth by larger discount scheme while spends less through cost share among alliance partners. Thus this program can be regarded as cost efficient discount promotion. But because there is no solid evidence that it can really deliver profitable sales growth, an empirical study for its effects on sales and profit should be conducted. This study has two basic research questions concerning the effects of allianced discount program ; 1)the possibility of sales increase 2) the profitability of the discount driven sales. In F&B industry, sales increase mainly comes from increased guest count. Especially in family restaurants, to increase the number of guests we need to enlarge the size of visitor group (number of visitors for one group) because customers visit by group in a special occasion. And because they pay the bill by group(table), the increase of sales per table is a key measure for sales improvement. The past researches for price & discount sensitivity and reference discount rate explain that price sensitive consumers have narrow reference discount zone and make rational purchase decision. Differently from all time discount scheme of regular sales promotions, the alliance card discount program only provides the right to get discount like discount coupon. And because it is usually once a month opportunity given by the past month usage level, customers tend to perceive alliance card discount as a rare chance to get. So that we can expect customers try to maximize the discount effect when they use the limited discount opportunity. Considering group visiting practice and low visit frequency of family restaurants, the way to maximize discount effect should be the increase the size of visit group. And their sensitivity to discount and rational consumption behavior defer the additional spending for ordering high price menu, even though they get considerable amount of savings from the discount. From the analysis of sales data paid by alliance discount cards for four months, we found the below. 1) The relation between discount rate and number of guest per table is positive : 25% discount results one additional guest 2) The relation between discount rate and the spending per guest is negative. 3) However, total profit amount per table is increased when discount rate is increased. 4) Reward point accumulation & redemption did not show any significant relationship with the increase of number of guests. These results suggest that the allianced discount program substantially contributes to sales increase and profit improvement by increasing the number of guests per table. Though the spending per guest is decreased by discount rate increase, the total amount of profit per table is improved. It seems the incremental profit by increased guest count offsets the profit decrease. Additional intriguing finding is the point reward system does not have any significant impact on the increase of number of guest, even if the point accumulation & redemption of loyalty program are usually regarded as another saving offers by customers. In sum, because it is proved that allianced discount program with credit cards and loyalty cards is effective to both sales drive and profit increase, the alliance card program could be recommended as strategically buyable program.

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Development of Measurement Scale for Korean Scaling Fear-1.0 and Related Factors (한국형 스켈링공포(KSF 1.0)의 측정도구 개발 및 관련요인)

  • Cho, Myung-Sook;Lee, Sung-Kook
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2009
  • This study was to develop an instrument for multidimensional measurement of Korean scaling fear (KSF)-1.0 and analyze related factors. A sample of 720 subjects(scaling patients and community people) was studied in Daegu city from November in 2008 to March in 2009. Authors first conceptualized the KSF, item generation, item reduction, and questionnaire formatting were performed in the stage of the development. Item descriptive, missing%, item internal consistency, and item discriminant validity were analyzed in the item-level, also descriptive, floor and ceiling effect were analyzed in the scale-level. Cronbach's alpha, test-retest, inter-dimension correlations, and factor analysis were performed to evaluate the validity and reliability in the new instrument. Confirmative factor analysis was did to evaluate the fit of model. The results for item-level and scale-level were acceptable except item discriminant validity. The reliability for 0.92~0.96 of corelation coefficient range(Cronbach's alpha 0.96~0.98) was high in the test-retest, and there was no significant difference in paired t-test. Item internal consistency(range of pearson corelation coefficient 0.39~0.95) was also high. The result of explanatory factor analysis was the same as the intended dimension structure, also confirmatory factor analysis results revealed that the dimensional structure model were fined well in the evaluation of model fit($x^2$= 1245.66, df=146, p=0.0000; GFI=0.85; AGFI=0.80; RMSEA=0.10). Factors related to KSF by multiple regression were gender($\beta$=0.28, p=0.0004) and teeth brush method($\beta$=-0.15, p=0.0053) in scaling patients, also gender($\beta$=0.25, p=0.0002), educational level($\beta$=0.14, p=0.0155), teeth brush method($\beta$=-0.09, p=0.0229) and time of daily work out($\beta$=-0.10, p=0.0055) were significantly associated with KSF in no scaling group. In conclusion, The results of this study reveal that the new developed measurement scale was reliable and val id instrument for measuring the KSF in dental hygiene patients and community people. We recommend that further research should develop more the instrument for the Korean scaling fear.

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Prediction of Growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in Lettuce Treated with Alkaline Electrolyzed Water at Different Temperatures

  • Ding, Tian;Jin, Yong-Guo;Rahman, S.M.E.;Kim, Jai-Moung;Choi, Kang-Hyun;Choi, Gye-Sun;Oh, Deog-Hwan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.232-237
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop a model for describing the effect of storage temperature (4, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and $35^{\circ}C$) on the growth of Escherichia coli O157 : H7 in ready-to-eat (RTE) lettuce treated with or without (control) alkaline electrolyzed water (AIEW). The growth curves were well fitted with the Gompertz equation, which was used to determine the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) of E. coli O157 : H7 ($R^2$ = 0.994). Results showed that the obtained SGR and LT were dependent on the storage temperature. The growth rate increased with increasing temperature from 4 to $35^{\circ}C$. The square root models were used to evaluate the effect of storage temperature on the growth of E. coli O157 : H7 in lettuce samples treated without or with AIEW. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$), adjusted determination coefficient ($R^2_{Adj}$), and mean square error (MSE) were employed to validate the established models. It showed that $R^2$ and $R^_{Adj}$ were close to 1 (> 0.93), and MSE calculated from models of untreated and treated lettuce were 0.031 and 0.025, respectively. The results demonstrated that the overall predictions of the growth of E. coli O157: H7 agreed with the observed data.

The Study on the Mediating Effects of "Self-esteem" in the Relationship between High School Students' "Adaptation to School Life" and "Career Maturity." (고등학생의 학교생활적응과 진로성숙과의 관계에서 자아존중감의 매개효과에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Joo Won
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.101-118
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    • 2014
  • "Career maturity" is very crucial for high school students since it has an impact on their career path and decision-making. Not only that, it is also important in self-realization and happiness as well as maximizing human resources. When it comes to understanding high school students' career path, it is necessary to know how they perceive school life since they spend most of their time in school. It's also vital to observe in the perspective of students' personal growth. This study seeks to understand the relationship between "adaptation to school life" "self-esteem" and "career maturity". To accomplish this, the 7th additional surveys conducted by Welfare Panel Study were used. The survey was conducted among 496 high school students in order to come up with descriptive statistics and correlation between "adaptation to school life" and "self-esteem" as well as the level of "career maturity". Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was used to understand the effects of "adaptation to school life" and "self-esteem" on "career maturity." The Baron and Kennny mediation analysis were used to understand the effects when the mediating role of "self-esteem" comes into the relationship between "adaptation to school life" and "career maturity". The results of the analysis are as follows: First, the average age for high school students' "career maturity" is 2.07, while it is 1.91 for "self-esteem". For "adaptation to school life," the relationship between "obedience to school regulations" and "relationship with friends" was relatively higher than the relationship between "attitude toward school life" and "interest in school life" Second, high school students' "career maturity" "adaptation to school life" and "self-esteem" were thought to be statistically meaningful since it showed that they had a positive relationship with each other. Third, "interest in school life" "attitude toward school life" and "obedience to school life" and "relationship with friends" in which all of these are the sub factors for "adaptation to school life" together with "self-esteem" had an influence on high school students' "career maturity". Lastly, the relationship between "adaptation to school life" and "career maturity" was proved to be influenced by the partial mediating role of "self-esteem". As the study seeks to find relationships and the factors that affect high school students' "career maturity" meaningful information is given out for the development and progress of educational programs for "career maturity". This was done by understanding the fundamental and systematic approach towards "career maturity" in the students' perspective.

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Estimation and evaluation of irrigation water need using net water consumption concept in Jeju Island (순물소모량 개념에 의한 제주도 농업용수 수요량 산정 및 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.503-511
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    • 2017
  • In order to estimate the demand for water resources planning and operation, methodology for determining the size of water supply facilities has been mainly applied to agricultural water, unlike living and industrial water, which reflects actual usage trends. This inevitably leads to an overestimation of agricultural water and can lead to an imbalance in the supply and demand of each use in terms of the total water resources plan. In this study, the difference of approaches of concept of net consumption was examined in comparison with the existing methodology and the characteristics of agricultural water demand were analyzed by applying it to whole Jeju Island. SWAT model was applied to estimate the amount of evapotranspiration, which is a key factor in estimating demand, and watershed modeling was performed to reflect geographical features, weather, runoff and water use characteristics of Jeju Island. For the past period (1992~2013), demand of Jeju Island as a whole was analyzed as 427 mm per year, and it showed a relatively high demand around the eastern and western coastal regions. Annual demand and seasonal variation characteristics of 10 river basins with watershed area of $30km^2$ or more were also analyzed. In addition, by applying the cultivated area of each crop in 2020 in the future, it is estimated that the demand corresponding to the 10-year frequency drought is 54% of the amount demanded in the previous research. This is due to the difference in approach depending on the purpose of the demand calculation. From the viewpoint of water resource management and operation, additional demand is expected as much as the net consumption. However, from the actual supply perspective, it can be judged that a facility plan that meets the existing demand amount is necessary. In order to utilize the methodologies and results presented in this study in practice, it is necessary to make a reasonable discussion in terms of policy and institutional as well as engineering verification.