• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정성 검증

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A SVR Based-Pseudo Modified Einstein Procedure Incorporating H-ADCP Model for Real-Time Total Sediment Discharge Monitoring (실시간 총유사량 모니터링을 위한 H-ADCP 연계 수정 아인슈타인 방법의 의사 SVR 모형)

  • Noh, Hyoseob;Son, Geunsoo;Kim, Dongsu;Park, Yong Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.321-335
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    • 2023
  • Monitoring sediment loads in natural rivers is the key process in river engineering, but it is costly and dangerous. In practice, suspended loads are directly measured, and total loads, which is a summation of suspended loads and bed loads, are estimated. This study proposes a real-time sediment discharge monitoring system using the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed system is comprised of the SVR model for suspended sediment concentration (SVR-SSC) and for total loads (SVR-QTL), respectively. SVR-SSC estimates SSC and SVR-QTL mimics the modified Einstein procedure. The grid search with K-fold cross validation (Grid-CV) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) were employed to determine SVR's hyperparameters and input variables. The two SVR models showed reasonable cross-validation scores (R2) with 0.885 (SVR-SSC) and 0.860 (SVR-QTL). During the time-series sediment load monitoring period, we successfully detected various sediment transport phenomena in natural streams, such as hysteresis loops and sensitive sediment fluctuations. The newly proposed sediment monitoring system depends only on the gauged features by H-ADCP without additional assumptions in hydraulic variables (e.g., friction slope and suspended sediment size distribution). This method can be applied to any ADCP-installed discharge monitoring station economically and is expected to enhance temporal resolution in sediment monitoring.

An Empirical Analysis on the Appeal Case of Origin Verification for Korean Import Goods Using Bootstrapping Technique (부트스트랩 기법을 활용한 한국 수입 상품의 원산지검증 불복사례 실증분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Hyuk;Heo, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Suk-Chul
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.93-114
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    • 2017
  • Under the FTA agreement, preferential tariffs between FTA members will result in tariff reductions. In order to ensure the stable use of the FTA tariff system, it is necessary for the customs authorities to determine whether the origin goods are clearly applicable. This study analyzed the procedure of appeal according to the origin verification system based on the decision made by Korea Customs Service and Tax Tribunal. From this, we examined whether the rate of re-claiming a case rejected in the 'Review System of the Legality Before Taxation' differs. In addition, we carried out a quantitative analysis using bootstrapping technique in order to overcome the scarcity cases of verification of origin among FTA members. The implications of this paper are summarized as follows: First, we tested the hypothesis that the re-claiming rate of Western countries is higher. Second, some issues represented higher re-claiming rate. Third, there was no significant difference between the verification group and the re-claiming rate. Finally, even if an applicant makes a claim again, there is a possibility of being rejected again.

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Estimation of River Flow Data Using Machine Learning (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 유량 자료 생산 방법)

  • Kang, Noel;Lee, Ji Hun;Lee, Jung Hoon;Lee, Chungdae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.261-261
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    • 2020
  • 물관리의 기본이 되는 연속적인 유량 자료 확보를 위해서는 정확도 높은 수위-유량 관계 곡선식 개발이 필수적이다. 수위-유량 관계곡선식은 모든 수문시설 설계의 기초가 되며 홍수, 가뭄 등 물재해 대응을 위해서도 중요한 의미를 가지고 있다. 그러나 일반적으로 유량 측정은 많은 비용과 시간이 들고, 식생성장, 단면변화 등의 통제특성(control)이 변함에 따라 구간분리, 기간분리와 같은 비선형적인 양상이 나타나 자료 해석에 어려움이 존재한다. 특히, 국내 하천의 경우 자연적 및 인위적인 환경 변화가 다양하여 지점 및 기간에 따라 세밀한 분석이 요구된다. 머신러닝(Machine Learning)이란 데이터를 통해 컴퓨터가 스스로 학습하여 모델을 구축하고 성능을 향상시키는 일련의 과정을 뜻한다. 기존의 수위-유량 관계곡선식은 개발자의 판단에 의해 데이터의 종류와 기간 등을 설정하여 회귀식의 파라미터를 산출한다면, 머신러닝은 유효한 전체 데이터를 이용해 스스로 학습하여 자료 간 상관성을 찾아내 모델을 구축하고 성능을 지속적으로 향상 시킬 수 있다. 머신러닝은 충분한 수문자료가 확보되었다는 전제 하에 복잡하고 가변적인 수자원 환경을 반영하여 유량 추정의 정확도를 지속적으로 향상시킬 수 있다는 이점을 가지고 있다. 본 연구는 머신러닝의 대표적인 알고리즘들을 활용하여 유량을 추정하는 모델을 구축하고 성능을 비교·분석하였다. 대상지역은 안정적인 수량을 확보하고 있는 한강수계의 거운교 지점이며, 사용자료는 2010~2018년의 시간, 수위, 유량, 수면폭 등 이다. 프로그램은 파이썬을 기반으로 한 머신러닝 라이브러리인 사이킷런(sklearn)을 사용하였고 알고리즘은 랜덤포레스트 회귀, 의사결정트리, KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor), rgboost을 적용하였다. 학습(train) 데이터는 입력자료 종류별로 조합하여 6개의 세트로 구분하여 모델을 구축하였고, 이를 적용해 검증(test) 데이터를 RMSE(Roog Mean Square Error)로 평가하였다. 그 결과 모델 및 입력 자료의 조합에 따라 3.67~171.46로 다소 넓은 범위의 값이 도출되었다. 그 중 가장 우수한 유형은 수위, 연도, 수면폭 3개의 입력자료를 조합하여 랜덤포레스트 회귀 모델에 적용한 경우이다. 비교를 위해 동일한 검증 데이터를 한국수문조사연보(2018년) 내거운교 지점의 수위별 수위-유량 곡선식을 이용해 유량을 추정한 결과 RMSE가 3.76이 산출되어, 머신러닝이 세분화된 수위-유량 곡선식과 비슷한 수준까지 성능을 내는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구는 양질의 유량자료 생산을 위해 기 구축된 수문자료를 기반으로 머신러닝 기법의 적용 가능성을 검토한 기초 연구로써, 국내 효율적인 수문자료 측정 및 수위-유량 곡선 산출에 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 향후 수자원 환경 및 통제특성에 영향을 미치는 다양한 영향변수를 파악하기 위해 기상자료, 취수량 등의 입력 자료를 적용할 필요가 있으며, 머신러닝 내 비지도학습인 딥러닝과 같은 보다 정교한 모델에 대한 추가적인 연구도 수행되어야 할 것이다.

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Statistical Data Extraction and Validation from Graph for Data Integration and Meta-analysis (데이터통합과 메타분석을 위한 그래프 통계량 추출과 검증)

  • Sung Ryul Shim;Yo Hwan Lim;Myunghee Hong;Gyuseon Song;Hyun Wook Han
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to describe specific approaches for data extraction from graph when statistical information is not directly reported in some articles, enabling data intergration and meta-analysis for quantitative data synthesis. Particularly, meta-analysis is an important analysis tool that allows the right decision making for evidence-based medicine by systematically and objectively selects target literature, quantifies the results of individual studies, and provides the overall effect size. For data integration and meta-analysis, we investigated the strength points about the introduction and application of Adobe Acrobet Reader and Python-based Jupiter Lab software, a computer tool that extracts accurate statistical figures from graphs. We used as an example data that was statistically verified throught an previous studies and the original data could be obtained from ClinicalTrials.gov. As a result of meta-analysis of the original data and the extraction values of each computer software, there was no statistically significant difference between the extraction methods. In addition, the intra-rater reliability of between researchers was confirmed and the consistency was high. Therefore, In terms of maintaining the integrity of statistical information, measurement using a computational tool is recommended rather than the classically used methods.

Exploring the Impacts of Bridging and Bonding Social Capital on Travel Experience Sharing Behavior on SNS (사회적 자본이 SNS에서 여행 경험 공유 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Ju Hyoung Han;Chang-Sup Shim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.60-78
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    • 2024
  • Social Network Service(SNS) has fundamentally changed the scope, boundaries, and dynamics of social interactions, becoming an integral part of everyday social communication for individuals and significantly altering the decision-making processes of individuals and organizations. Although prior studies have agreed that individual motivations significantly affect travel experience sharing behavior on SNS, different motivations need to be further examined. Also, there is little empirical study that examines the relationships between social capital and motivations. To address these gaps, this study developed a research model to investigate how two types of social capital (i.e., bridging and bonding) influence individual motivations (i.e., self-enhancement and altruism motivations), which in turn contributes to travel experience sharing behavior on SNS. The online survey was conducted from March 3 to March 17, 2021, and 516 responses were included in the data analysis. Structural Equation Modeling was applied to test the hypotheses in a research model. This research provided a comprehensive exploration of the relationship between motivations and social capital, contributing to a better understanding of why tourists share their travel experiences on SNS.

Determinants of Insurance Products Cross-selling Performance : Focusing on Career Experience (직업경험을 중심으로 한 보험상품 교차판매 성과의 결정요인 분석)

  • Son, WooCheol;Kang, ShinAe
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of insurance product cross selling performance. For the study, 11 insurance managers and 2 sales managers belonging to A insurance agency were selected and in-depth interviews were conducted. The analysis of the research data was done by the open coding method suggested by Strauss & Corbin(2001). As a result, 84 concepts, 28 subcategories and 10 categories were derived. The ten categories that were determinants of insurance product cross-selling performance were personal characteristics, consultation method, cross-selling ratio, sales culture, education, customer change, customer DB provision, satisfaction, business support system, and customer service. In order to verify the qualitative results, quantitative analysis was emplyed to the actual performance data of insurance planners belonging to A insurance agency during April 2016~March 2019. As a result of the analysis, the age, position, and the number of months worked in the insurance company had a statistically significant effect on the number of life insurance contracts in total insurance contracts and life insurance contracts in total insurance contracts. In addition, the age, position, and the number of months worked in the insurance company had a statistically significant negative impact on the number of non-life insurance contracts in the total number of insurance contracts and the total amount of insurance contracts in total insurance contracts. The result of this study can be an important basic data for the development of educational programs and job support systems for the training of insurance planners. Insurance companies should refer to ten categories derived from qualitative research in order to increase the performance of insurance planners and to promote long-term service. Especially, it is necessary to develop specialized education programs and job support systems so that cross sales that increase the proportion of life insurance sales increase.

The Development and Effectiveness of a PBL Based Career Education Program (PBL 기반 진로교육 프로그램의 개발 및 효과검증)

  • Lee, Hye-Suk;Kim, You-Me
    • The Korean Journal of Elementary Counseling
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a PBL-based career education program and to examine its effectiveness on school children's career maturity. It's specifically meant to prepare a career education program to assist students to get an accurate grip on their aptitude, interest and personality and explore various sorts of occupations in the course of solving authentic and contextual career-related problems. After children's developmental characteristics and needs were analyzed, task analysis was implemented, and the objectives were defined. And then the core of the program, PBL problems were developed, and the validity of the problems were verified Evaluation plans and tools were prepared to assess children's problem-solving process and presentation, and an online learning space was designed. The program that consisted of 10-minute 21 sessions was provided to fifth-grade elementary schoolers for eight weeks. The findings of the study were as follows: The experimental group that participated in the PBL-based career education program showed a more significant improvement than the control group that didn't in career attitude and three career attitude subfactors involving planness, disposition and compromise. And the former made a more significant progress than the latter in career ability and its subfactors including vocational comprehension, self-understanding and decision-making skills as well. As a result of making a content analysis to make up for the survey, the students reported that they were able to get an objective understanding of themselves and acquire diverse and profound knowledge on work and the business world in the middle of solving the given PBL problems related to different areas in group and giving a presentation. In conclusion, a PBL based career education program developed by this researcher encouraged the students to have an objective self-understanding, to have a dynamic interactive discussion with their group members. Therefore the program had a positive impact on boosting the career attitude and career ability of the elementary schoolers. The findings suggested that in the field of elementary career education, autonomous learning attitude and subjecthood are the crucial factors to stimulate school children to explore and create their own future.

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A Study on the Ecological Indices for the Assessment of the Function and Maturity of Artificial Reefs (인공어초의 기능도와 성숙도 평가를 위한 생태학적 지수에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Hong, Hyun-Pyo;Hwang, Jae-Youn;Lee, Min-Soo;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Chae-Sung;Hwang, Sun-Do
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.8-34
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    • 2014
  • We reviewed foreign evaluation systems based on the macrobenthic and macroalgal communities and developed a system, composed of a set of ecological indices able to evaluate the functionality (FI, Functional Index; estimation of stability and productivity) and maturity (MI, Maturity Index; comparisons with biological parameters of natural reefs) of artificial reefs by comparing the status in the adjacent natural reefs in Korean coastal waters. The evaluation system was applied to natural and artificial reefs/reef-planned areas (natural reefs), established in the 5 marine ranching areas (Bangnyeong-Daechung, Yeonpyung, Taean, Seocheon and Buan) in the west coast of Korea. The FI ranged between 31.6 (Bangnyeong-Daechung) and 72.5% (Buan) and MI did between 53.1 (Seocheon) and 76.9% (Taean) in average. The evaluation of artificial reefs by the two indices, showed the most appropriate status in Taean. The FI between the adjacent artificial and natural reefs were in significant linear relationship ($r^2=0.83$, p=0.01). This indicated the local status of biological community may be critical in determining the functionality of the artificial reefs. We have suggested an integrative but preliminary evaluation system of artificial reefs in this study. The output from the evaluation system may be utilized as a tool for environment/resource managers or policy makers, responsible for effective use of funds and decision making. Given the importance, we need to use the options to enhance and improve the accuracy as follows: (1) continuous validation of the evaluation system and rescaling the criteria of indicators, (2) vigorous utilization of observation and experience through the application and data accumulation and (3) development and testing of brand-new indicators.

A Study on the Intelligent Quick Response System for Fast Fashion(IQRS-FF) (패스트 패션을 위한 지능형 신속대응시스템(IQRS-FF)에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyun-Sung;Park, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2010
  • Recentlythe concept of fast fashion is drawing attention as customer needs are diversified and supply lead time is getting shorter in fashion industry. It is emphasized as one of the critical success factors in the fashion industry how quickly and efficiently to satisfy the customer needs as the competition has intensified. Because the fast fashion is inherently susceptible to trend, it is very important for fashion retailers to make quick decisions regarding items to launch, quantity based on demand prediction, and the time to respond. Also the planning decisions must be executed through the business processes of procurement, production, and logistics in real time. In order to adapt to this trend, the fashion industry urgently needs supports from intelligent quick response(QR) system. However, the traditional functions of QR systems have not been able to completely satisfy such demands of the fast fashion industry. This paper proposes an intelligent quick response system for the fast fashion(IQRS-FF). Presented are models for QR process, QR principles and execution, and QR quantity and timing computation. IQRS-FF models support the decision makers by providing useful information with automated and rule-based algorithms. If the predefined conditions of a rule are satisfied, the actions defined in the rule are automatically taken or informed to the decision makers. In IQRS-FF, QRdecisions are made in two stages: pre-season and in-season. In pre-season, firstly master demand prediction is performed based on the macro level analysis such as local and global economy, fashion trends and competitors. The prediction proceeds to the master production and procurement planning. Checking availability and delivery of materials for production, decision makers must make reservations or request procurements. For the outsourcing materials, they must check the availability and capacity of partners. By the master plans, the performance of the QR during the in-season is greatly enhanced and the decision to select the QR items is made fully considering the availability of materials in warehouse as well as partners' capacity. During in-season, the decision makers must find the right time to QR as the actual sales occur in stores. Then they are to decide items to QRbased not only on the qualitative criteria such as opinions from sales persons but also on the quantitative criteria such as sales volume, the recent sales trend, inventory level, the remaining period, the forecast for the remaining period, and competitors' performance. To calculate QR quantity in IQRS-FF, two calculation methods are designed: QR Index based calculation and attribute similarity based calculation using demographic cluster. In the early period of a new season, the attribute similarity based QR amount calculation is better used because there are not enough historical sales data. By analyzing sales trends of the categories or items that have similar attributes, QR quantity can be computed. On the other hand, in case of having enough information to analyze the sales trends or forecasting, the QR Index based calculation method can be used. Having defined the models for decision making for QR, we design KPIs(Key Performance Indicators) to test the reliability of the models in critical decision makings: the difference of sales volumebetween QR items and non-QR items; the accuracy rate of QR the lead-time spent on QR decision-making. To verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed models, a case study has been performed for a representative fashion company which recently developed and launched the IQRS-FF. The case study shows that the average sales rateof QR items increased by 15%, the differences in sales rate between QR items and non-QR items increased by 10%, the QR accuracy was 70%, the lead time for QR dramatically decreased from 120 hours to 8 hours.

Building Service UX Index : Measuring UX Satisfaction in Mobile Content Services (사용자 만족도에 기반 한 서비스 UX 인덱스 구축 -모바일 컨텐츠 기반 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jongmin;Ha, Hyunnam;Hong, Sangwoo;Chung, Kyungwon
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2014
  • In mobile content services like apps for smart mobile devices in specific, there has been a growing interest in evaluating UX quality to make sure that it provides better experience to users and consequently, secures competitiveness in a market. In that sense, usability testing has been considered as one method that enables designers and design managers to evaluate UI quality before they launch their service. However, those designers have been faced with a following fundamental question to be answere d : Is good UX design a good business? In other words, can well-designed service, which has good usability, actually satisfy target users and improve competitiveness in a market? There is no doubt that usability is one important factor perceived by users. However, it has a limit in terms of evaluating UX quality in macro level, as it mostly focuses on ease of use and efficiency of performing tasks, but does not cover other possible experiential factors, which also can be perceived by users, such as market situation and preexistence experience. Therefore, this research aims to identify key experiential factors in using mobile content services, and establish service UX index model that enables to measure perceived user satisfaction, and identify how UX design contributes to the satisfaction in quantitative way.