• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정론

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A Study on the Chaotic Random Signal Generator (카오스적인 랜덤신호 발생에 관한 연구)

  • 구인수;김환우
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 1999.05a
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    • pp.58-67
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    • 1999
  • 기존 의사 랜덤순서 발생회로에서 존재하는 출력이 일치할 가능성을 없애고, 출력이 전 계에 골고루 이상적으로 분포시켜 랜덤성을 높일 필요가 있다. 본 논문은 기존의 의사 랜덤순서 발생회로에 결정론적 카오스 함수의 특성을 덧 붙임으로써 보다 랜덤성이 뛰어난 랜덤순서 신호를 발생시켰다. 결정론적 카오스 함수는 이미 카오스 특성이 입증된 톱니함수를 이용하였으며, 카오스적인 랜덤신호는 예측가능하면서, 혼돈적 특성으로 인해 보다 랜덤한 카오스적인 랜덤신호 발생회로와 개념을 제시 하였다.

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A Study on the Stochastical Design of Coastal Defense System (추계학적 호안구조물 설계기법)

  • 조용준;이재일;권혁주;유하상
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.08a
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    • pp.328-334
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    • 2003
  • 현재 우리나라 방파제 설계의 주류를 이루는 방법은 Hudson(SPM,1984)공식과 같은 경험식을 이용하는 결정론적 방법이다 이 결정론적 방법은 사용하기에 간편한 장점이 있으나, 그 유도과정을 살펴보면 적용에 한계가 있음을 알 수 있다. 즉, 임의로 선택된 설계파로부터 구조물의 안정여부에 대한 평가만 가능하다. (중략)

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A comparative study on validity of AHP and conjoint analysis: a case of cosmetics preference (계층적 의사결정과 컨조인트 분석의 타당성 비교: 화장품 선호 사례 조사)

  • Lee, Ji Hye;Jeong, Hyeong Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.921-933
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we consider the comparisons of the personal preferences of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and conjoint analysis (CA) which contain very relatively small number of alternatives. However, a direct performance comparison is not easy because these two methods have a much different process to achieve the final decision. Therefore, we adopt a validity and reference method with empirical case study for cosmetics preference of female college students. In case study, conjoint analysis has the merit of measuring internal validity; however, AHP has the merit of measuring predictive validity.

Study on the Scenario Earthquake Determining Methods Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (확률론적 지진재해도를 이용한 시나리오 지진의 결정기법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, In-Kil;Nakajima, Masato;Choun, Young-Sun;Yun, Kwan-Hee
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.6 s.40
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2004
  • The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.

Compatibilist Replies to Manipulation Arguments (자유의지에 대한 조작논증과 근원-양립가능주의의 대응)

  • Kim, Sungsu
    • Korean Journal of Logic
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.373-393
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    • 2018
  • Manipulation arguments purport to show that source freedom is incompatible with determinism. According to manipulation arguments, (1) intuitively, an agent manipulated in a certain manner to do A is not free, and (2) there is no significant difference between manipulation and determination. It follows that an agent determined to do A is not free. A compatibilist hard-line reply ('HR') denies (1), whereas a soft-line reply ('SR') denies (2). HR, which is arguably compatibilists' favorite, is assessed from the 'neutral stance.' HR turns out to fall short of adequately rejecting manipulation arguments. Recently Sartorio defends HR by claiming that (1) commits some sort of psychological fallacy. I argue that it does not work. I claim that SR is more promising. I examine the difference between intentional manipulation by design and ordinary determination. I argue that this difference suggests some determination scenario without intentional manipulation to which SR and manipulation arguments make different predictions, and that SR is better supported. Finally, incompatibilist objections are considered and replied.

The Evolution of the Systems of Innovation Approach: A Review of the Main Issues (혁신체제론의 진화 및 주요 논점)

  • Ku, Young-Woo;Cho, Sung-Bok;Min, Wan-Kee
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.225-241
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    • 2012
  • This paper examines the evolution of the systems of innovation approach and its main issues. At first, national systems of innovation have appeared on the purpose to substitute the neoclassical macroeconomic policies. But various criticisms have been raised because of the restriction within national boundary of analysis, the lack of dynamic analysis, the danger of institutional determination, the deficiency of theoretical accuracy in national systems of innovation. Technological systems, regional systems of innovation, sectoral systems of innovation have been developed to overcome criticisms about national systems of innovation. Nevertheless the unsettled questions in the systems of innovation approach remain. The academic and policy-making usefulness of the systems of innovation approach will be expanded by development of the complementary researches within approach.

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QFD를 활용한 제품-기술 로드맵: 웹 기반 시스템의 설계

  • Lee, Seung-Hun;Lee, Seong-Ju;Park, Yong-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.360-364
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    • 2004
  • 기술 로드맵(technology roadmap)은 기업의 사업전략을 기술계획에 반영하고 기술을 제품, 시장과 연결하는 기술기획 방법론이다. 기존의 연구들은 기술 로드맵의 전략적 효과에 대한 정성적 분석이나 기본적인 이해를 돕기 위한 연구에 치우쳐 있어, 구체적인 작성과정이나 작성과정에 포함되는 의사결정을 지원하는 방법론 개발에 대한 연구는 부족했다. 이에 본 연구는 QFD(Quality Function Deployment)와 웹 기반 시스템의 설계를 통해 기술 로드맵 작성과정을 지원하는 방법론을 제안하고자 한다. 구체적으로는 우선 QFD를 활용하여 고객동인(market driver)과 제품 동인(product driver), 제품 동인과 기술 동인(technology driver)의 연결고리를 발견하고 다음으로 전략적 의사결정을 위한 대안을 평가하는 과정으로 구성된다. 마지막으로 제안한 방법론을 구현하는 웹 기반의 시스템을 소개한다. 웹 기반 시스템과 QFD의 도입으로, 의사결정을 지원하는 체계적인 틀을 제공하고 기술로드맵 작성과정을 보다 효율적으로 수행할 수 있도록 하는 효과를 기대할 수 있다.

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A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Inorganic Arsenic (무기비소에 의한 확률론적 위해도 평가)

  • 유동한;하재주
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.13 no.3_4
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 1998
  • INTRODUCTION : Arsenic is a ubiquitous element present in various compounds throughout the earth's crust. The use of arsenic compounds increased greatly during the 18th and 19th centuries, including its use in pigments and dyes, as a preservative of animal hides, in glass manufacture, agricultural pesticides, and various pharmaceutical substances. The causal association between human arsenic exposure, usually in the form of inorganic compounds containing trivalent arsenite (As$^{III}$) or pentavalent arsenate (As$^V$), and various forms of human cancer has been known for many years.

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Analysis of the Optimal Separation Distance between Multiple Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Caverns Based on Probabilistic Analysis (확률론적 해석에 기반한 다중 열저장공동의 적정 이격거리 분석)

  • Park, Dohyun;Kim, Hyunwoo;Park, Jung-Wook;Park, Eui-Seob;Sunwoo, Choon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2014
  • Multiple thermal energy storage (TES) caverns can be used for storing thermal energy on a large scale and for a high-aspect-ratio heat storage design to provide good thermal performance. It may also be necessary to consider the use of multiple caverns with a reduced length when a single, long tunnel-shaped cavern is not suitable for connection to aboveground heat production and injection equipments. When using multiple TES caverns, the separation distance between the caverns is one of the significant factors that should be considered in the design of storage space, and the optimal separation distance should be determined based on a quantitative stability criterion. In this paper, we described a numerical approach for determining the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns for large-scale TES utilization. For reliable stability evaluation of multiple caverns, we employed a probabilistic method which can quantitatively take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by probability distributions, unlike conventional deterministic approaches. The present approach was applied to the design of a conceptual TES model to store hot water for district heating. The probabilistic stability results of this application demonstrated that the approach in our work can be effectively used as a decision-making tool to determine the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns. In addition, the probabilistic results were compared to those obtained through a deterministic analysis, and the comparison results suggested that care should taken in selecting the acceptable level of stability when using deterministic approaches.

신경망 이론과 Simulated Annealing법을 이용한 노심 최적 장전모형 탐색 연구

  • 이정훈;장창선;김창효
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 1997
  • 최적 노심장전모형을 찾기 위한 확률론적 방법중 하나인 Simulated Annealing 방법은 기존 결정론적 방법의 단점인 국부 최적해에 빠질 위험성을 줄이면서도 빠른 시간 안에 최적 노심장전 모형을 찾을 수 있다. 그러나 많은 장전모형의 핵특성을 계산하기 위해서는 많은 전산시간이 소요되기 때문에 이의 해결 방법으로 신경망이론 이용한 노심해석을 통하여 시간을 극소화하고, 기존의 섭동이론 등 가속화된 방법에 비해 정확도를 높였다. 영광 3호기 평형노심에 적용한 결과 기존 설계된 장전모형에 비하에 더 보수적인 제한치를 만족하면서도 주기길이가 33EFPD 만큼 길어지는 장전모형을 1시간 이내에 찾을 수 있어 기존의 결정론적 방법이나 다른 핵특성 계산 모델을 사용한 SA법에 비해 더 적은 전산시간 동안 정확한 최적해를 탐색하는 것을 확인하였다.

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