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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

Study on the Selecting of Suitable Sites for Integrated Riparian Eco-belts Connecting Dam Floodplains and Riparian Zone - Case Study of Daecheong Reservoir in Geum-river Basin - (댐 홍수터와 수변구역을 연계한 통합형 수변생태벨트 적지 선정방안 연구 - 금강 수계 대청호 사례 연구 -)

  • Bahn, Gwonsoo;Cho, Myeonghyeon;Kang, Jeonkyeong;Kim, Leehyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.327-341
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    • 2021
  • The riparian eco-belt is an efficient technique that can reduce non-point pollution sources in the basin and improve ecological connectivity and health. In Korea, a legal system for the construction and management of riparian eco-belts is in operation. However, it is currently excluded that rivers and floodplains in dam reservoir that are advantageous for buffer functions such as control of non-point pollutants and ecological habitats. Accordingly, this study presented and analyzed a plan to select a site for an integrated riparian ecol-belt that comprehensively evaluates the water quality and ecosystem characteristics of each dam floodplain and riparian zone for the Daecheong Dam basin in Geum River watershed. First, the Daecheong Dam basin was divided into 138 sub-basin with GIS, and the riparian zone adjacent to the dam floodplain was analyzed. Sixteen evaluation factors related to the ecosystem and water quality impact that affect the selection of integrated riparian eco-belt were decided, and weights for the importance of each factor were set through AHP analysis. The priority of site suitability was derived by conducting an integrated evaluation by applying weights to sub-basin by floodplains and riparian zone factors. In order to determine whether the sites derived through GIS site analysis are sutiable for actual implementation, five sites were inspected according to three factors: land use, pollution sources, and ecological connectivity. As a result, it was confirmed that all sites were appropriate to apply integrated riparian ecol-belt. It is judged that the riparian eco-belt site analysis technique proposed through this study can be applied as a useful tool when establishing an integrated riparian zone management policy in the future. However, it might be necessary to experiment various evaluation factors and weights for each item according to the characteristics and issues of each dam. Additional research need to be conducted on elaborated conservation and restoration strategies considering the Green-Blue Network aspect, evaluation of ecosystem services, and interconnection between related laws and policy and its improvements.

An Optimization Study on a Low-temperature De-NOx Catalyst Coated on Metallic Monolith for Steel Plant Applications (제철소 적용을 위한 저온형 금속지지체 탈질 코팅촉매 최적화 연구)

  • Lee, Chul-Ho;Choi, Jae Hyung;Kim, Myeong Soo;Seo, Byeong Han;Kang, Cheul Hui;Lim, Dong-Ha
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.332-340
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    • 2021
  • With the recent reinforcement of emission standards, it is necessary to make efforts to reduce NOx from air pollutant-emitting workplaces. The NOx reduction method mainly used in industrial facilities is selective catalytic reduction (SCR), and the most commercial SCR catalyst is the ceramic honeycomb catalyst. This study was carried out to reduce the NOx emitted from steel plants by applying De-NOx catalyst coated on metallic monolith. The De-NOx catalyst was synthesized through the optimized coating technique, and the coated catalyst was uniformly and strongly adhered onto the surface of the metallic monolith according to the air jet erosion and bending test. Due to the good thermal conductivity of metallic monolith, the De-NOx catalyst coated on metallic monolith showed good De-NOx efficiency at low temperatures (200 ~ 250 ℃). In addition, the optimal amount of catalyst coating on the metallic monolith surface was confirmed for the design of an economical catalyst. Based on these results, the De-NOx catalyst of commercial grade size was tested in a semi-pilot De-NOx performance facility under a simulated gas similar to the exhaust gas emitted from a steel plant. Even at a low temperature (200 ℃), it showed excellent performance satisfying the emission standard (less than 60 ppm). Therefore, the De-NOx catalyst coated metallic monolith has good physical and chemical properties and showed a good De-NOx efficiency even with the minimum amount of catalyst. Additionally, it was possible to compact and downsize the SCR reactor through the application of a high-density cell. Therefore, we suggest that the proposed De-NOx catalyst coated metallic monolith may be a good alternative De-NOx catalyst for industrial uses such as steel plants, thermal power plants, incineration plants ships, and construction machinery.

A Study on the Topography and the Criteria of Choosing the Location-Allocation of Palaces - Focusing on Gyeongbokgung Palace and Changdeokgung Palace - (조선 궁궐 입지 선정의 기준과 지형에 대한 연구 - 경복궁과 창덕궁을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Kyoosoon
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.130-145
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    • 2019
  • The palaces in South Korea are largely divided into primary palaces (法宮) and secondary palaces (離宮). In the early Joseon period, the primary palace was Gyeongbokgung Palace, and the secondary palace was Changdeokgung Palace. Additionally, there is the concept of imperial palaces (正宮). Gyeongbokgung Palace was the primary palace and the imperial palace. The topography of Gyeongbokgung is based on Mt. Baegak, which is the symbol of royal authority. The location of the palaces was chosen to highlight the king's dignity and authority. The three gates and three courts (三門三朝) were positioned on a straight line based on one axis along the ridge of Mt. Baegak to establish the legitimacy, hierarchy, and unity of the kingship. The secondary palace was built according to the demands of the king and the royal family or the political situation. It was created as a royal living space; thus, creating independent and diverse spaces along multiple axes. The primary palace was chosen to be built on the terrain of Yang, and the secondary palace was chosen to be built on the terrain of Yin; the criteria for laying buildings in the palace areas had to be different. The most important point in the formation of Joseon palaces was that the secret vital energy for the king (王氣) originated from the sacred mountain. Important elements of the palace were the secret vital energy chain of feng shui (風水氣脈) and the forbidden stream (禁川). The secret vital energy chain of feng shui was the gateway to the secret vital energy for the king, and the forbidden stream was a method of preventing the king from leaving the palace grounds. Gyeongbokgung Palace, which is on typical feng shui terrain, faithfully reflects the principles of feng shui. On the other hand, the secondary palace was built on incomplete and irregular feng shui terrain. Feng shui was part of the nature and the geography of the ruling classes in the Joseon Dynasty. By examining their geography, I believe that the perfection of traditional culture inheritance and restoration can be improved.

A Study of the Effect of the KTX Mulgeum Station Stop on Railroad Users in Yangsan City (KTX 물금역 정차 확정이 양산시 철도 이용자에게 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Yang-Won;Jang, Jae-Suck;Suh, Jeong-Yeal
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.527-536
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to predict changing traffic environments and related economic effects by reflecting the changed KTDB and socio-economic indicators pertaining to Mulgeum station, a general railway stop, when it is confirmed as a KTX stop. To analyze the data of this study, socioeconomic indicators and the general status of transportation facility operations were investigated with reference to related statistical data, centered on the country overall and on Yangsan city in particular. In addition, we investigated and referenced the railroad facility construction plan and train operation plan, which are national high-level plans related to land development and transportation network construction. Currently, there are only ITX trains (4 times/day) and Mugunghwa trains (29 times/day) that stop at Mulgeum station in Yangsan, meaning that passengers cannot use KTX trains in the Yangsan area. In particular, the need for a KTX stop at Mulgeum station has been continuously raised because train users in the Yangsan area have inconvenient transportation in that they must travel 40 minutes to Ulsan station or 30 minutes to Gupo station to use the KTX. As a result of analyzing railroad transportation demand that will change in the future as the KTX stop at Mulgeum station is confirmed, the number of passengers boarding and arriving at Mulgeum station is predicted to be 1,674 passengers/day by 2025. In addition, the numbers of train passengers that are converted from Ulsan and Gupo stations due to the stop at Mulgeum station are predicted to be 594 passengers/day boarding and 562 passengers/day arriving by 2025. In the future, if Yangsan citizens use the KTX Mulgeum station, the access time to Mulgeum station can be shortened to 22 minutes from 65 minutes, and it is predicted that the inconvenience of transferring between railroads will be resolved, with the waiting time for transfers reduced by up to a maximum of 40 minutes. Therefore, the economic effect of creating a KTX stop at Mulgeum station was analyzed to be B/C=1.823 when general railroad operating costs are not taken into account and B/C=2.127 when general railroad operating costs are considered. In conclusion, when using KTX trains to visit the Seoul Metropolitan Area, it takes 2 hours and 43 minutes to use Mulgeum station without using Ulsan station or Gupo station, which is considered to be very effective for reducing travel times and improving the economic feasibility of this development; it is also expected that Yangsan city will be able to improve accessibility and mobility to the Seoul Metropolitan Area by breaking free from the disgrace of being a remote location given its link to KTX in the future.

Daesoon Jinrihoe Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex as Viewed within Feng-Shui Theory (풍수지리로 본 대순진리회 여주본부도장)

  • Shin, Young-dae
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.33
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    • pp.91-145
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to reveal that Daesoon Jinrihoe Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex is a sacred place of Gaebyeokgongsa (the Reordering Works of the Great Opening) through the logic of the energy of form in Feng-Shui studies. The Headquarters Temple Complex can illuminate the lamp of coexistence, emerge as a place for cultivation, and support the era of human nobility with Gucheonsangje (the Supreme God of the Ninth Heaven) as an object of faith. Virtuous Concordance of Yin and Yang, Harmonious Union between Divine Beings and Human Beings, the Resolution of Grievances for Mutual Beneficence, and Perfected Unification with Dao are the mission statements of this great site. For this purpose, it is necessary to investigate the headquarters according to integral Feng-Shui Theory. Doing so can provide proof that the geographic location, landscape, yin-yang harmonizing, and flowing veins of terrestrial energy at Headquarters Temple Complex are all profoundly auspicious. At the same time, this data also allows further study into the interactions of dragon-veins, energy hubs, surrounding mountains, and watercourses, which reveal how Daesoon Jinrihoe Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex promotes the basic works of propagation, edification, and cultivation and three societal works of charity aid, social welfare, and education for the purpose of global propagation, saving beings, and building an earthly paradise by reforming humanity and engaging in spiritual civilization. This must be done on site with proper Feng-Shui in order to open up the era of human nobility upon the Great Opening of the Later World. As the center of the religious order, Daesoon Jinrihoe, Yeoju Headquarter Temple Complex has the general Feng-Shui characteristic of Baesanimsu (a back supported by a mountain and a front facing water). Through discussing the Feng-Shui of Daesoon Jinrihoe's Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex as the center of humankind's resolution of grievances for mutual beneficence, this study would explore growth-supporting land that delivers future rewards through Feng-Shui symbolism and the ethical practice of grateful reciprocation of favors for mutual beneficence. This exploration will reveal how the geographical features and conditions of the Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex make it a place fit for spiritual cultivation. It is a miraculous luminous court surrounded by mountains, where auspicious signs in eight directions gather. Its veins of terrestrial energy harmonize with clean water energy as it is affectionately situated within its natural environment. Its location corresponds with the Feng-Shui theory of dragon-veins, energy hubs, surrounding mountains, and watercourses. Thus, with regards to the Feng-Shui of Daesoon Jinrihoe's Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex, this study examines the flows of mountains and waters and focuses on how the site is based on the logic of Feng-Shui. More generally, the geographical features of the surrounding mountains are likewise examined. An analysis of the relationship between Poguk (布局) of Sasinsa (animal symbols of the four directions, four gods, including blue dragon of the east, red phoenix of the south, white tiger of the west, and black tortoise of the north) and the location will be provided while focusing on the Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex. This study supports the feasibility of further Feng-Shui studies of the Yeoju Headquarters Temple Complex based on traditional geomancy books that focusing on Hyeonggi (Energy of Form) Theory.

A Study on the Prospect of Implementing a Public Common Practice of Ethics Based upon the Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth (천지공사의 공공윤리 실천전망에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.28
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    • pp.37-72
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this article is to study the prospect of implementing a public common practice of ethics based on the 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth.' The 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth' demonstrated the prospect of a public common practice of ethics through the shared public action that would connect and mediate both the public domain and the private domain. In addition, the 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth' of Gucheon Sangje (九天上帝) provided us with a complete transformation, meaning the opening of a new era, transforming heaven and earth from their state in the Prior World to their optimized state in the Later World. This culminates in a new manifestation of a peaceful world revealed a prosperity and the prospect of common happiness and common order for the public. In addition, the 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth' has a public value as a religious culture that responds to social change and social needs. The 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth' revealed the prospect of a public common practice of ethics, placed importance on creating a new foundation, and restoring phenomena back to its original order. The 'Reordering Works of Heaven and Earth' presented various multi-faceted, multi-layered outlets of soteriology while exploring solutions to public issues and revealing human dignity. Through the new construction of Heaven and Earth, Gucheon Sangje had intervened in projects for human relief. The public ethical indicators of 'the actor' here are in line with those of the 'Non-action Tao' of Laozi. As the cosmos enters into the new epoch, humans have living together with the previous cosmic principle. Now we can expect the Prior World to open into a different era as humans embrace a cosmic life of 'Non-action Tao.' The active conjunction of the virtues of yin and yang is an idea of horizontal communication related to reordering of the universe. The harmonious union of divine beings and human beings suggests the way of enabling vertical communication. The resolution of grievances for the mutual beneficence of life is an ethics of peace that aims at achieving coexistence and prosperity. The private realization of Tao and the completion of the Tao in the world suggest the prospect of a common practice of ethics as means of implementing human dignity.

Research Trend of Estuarine Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment (국내 하구 수생태계 현황 및 건강성 조사의 성과와 하구 생태계의 국외 연구동향)

  • Won, Doo-Hee;Lim, Sung-Ho;Park, Jihyung;Moon, Jeong-Suk;Do, Yuno
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • An estuary is an area where a freshwater river or stream meets the ocean. Even before the importance of the value of estuaries was recognized, the estuary was lost because of large-scale conversion by draining, filling, damming, and dredging. In South Korea, 643 estuaries are located, and the total area is 3,248,300 ha, accounting for 32.5% of the total area of South Korea. Over 35% of Korean estuaries are closed estuaries which are only temporally connected with the sea, either permanently or periodically. Since 2008, in order to preserve the estuary ecosystem and solve major issues in the estuary by accumulating knowledge about the estuarine ecosystem, the Ministry of Environment of Republic of Korea has been conducting the "Estuarine Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment Project". At 668 sites of 325 estuaries, epilithic diatom, benthic macroinvertebrate, fish, and vegetation are investigated, and the habitat condition of each site is evaluated using the newly developed biotic index. More than 100 researchers annually record 2,097 species of estuaries according to the standardized survey guidelines over the past 14 years and provide strictly managed data necessary for establishing estuaries conservation policies. As a result of bibliometric analysis of 1,195 research articles related to the monitoring and assessment of the estuarine ecosystem, research on pollutants such as heavy metals and sediment control have recently been conducted. "Estuarine Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment Project" is an ecological monitoring type of long-term mandated monitoring that is usually focused on identifying trends. Although it is difficult to identify the mechanism influencing a change in an ecosystem through long-term mandated monitoring, providing empirical data for supporting evidence-based policy, decision-making, and the management of ecosystems. In order to increase the efficiency of the project, research to investigate the relationship between sediments and pollutants and organisms can be conducted at specific estuaries or sites to compensate for the shortcomings of mandatory monitoring.