• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.213-225
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• 2009

A stationary Markov chain model is a stochastic process with the Markov property. Having the Markov property means that, given the present state, future states are independent of the past states. The Markov chain model has been widely used for water resources design as a main tool. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical properties remain the same for all times. Hence, the stationary Markov chain model basically can not consider the changes of mean or variance. In this regard, a primary objective of this study is to develop a model which is able to make use of exogenous variables. The regression based link functions are employed to dynamically update model parameters given the exogenous variables, and the model parameters are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at Seoul station having 46 years data from 1961 to 2006. The model shows a capability to reproduce daily and seasonal characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as a short or mid-term prediction tool if elaborate GCM forecasts are used as a predictor. Also, the nonstationary Markov chain model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are provided as inputs.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.5-12
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• 2021

Climate change caused by global warming increases the frequency of occurrence of super typhoons and causes various types of sediment disasters such as debris flows in the mountainous area. This study is to evaluate the behavior of debris flow according to the multiplier value of the precipitation characteristics and the quantity of debris flow according to the typhoon category. For the analysis of the debris flow, the finite difference method for time elapse was applied. The larger the typhoon category, the higher the peak value of the flow discharge of debris flow and the faster the arrival time. When the precipitation characteristic multiplier is large, the fluctuation amplitude is high and the bandwidth is wide. When the slope angle was steeper, water discharge increased by 2~2.5 times or more, and the fluctuation of the flow discharge of debris flow increased. All of the velocities of debris flow were included to the class of "Very rapid", and the distribution of the erosion or sedimentation velocity of debris flows showed that the magnitude of erosion increased from the beginning, large-scale erosion occurred, and flowed downstream. The results of this study will provide information for predicting debris flow disasters, structural countermeasures and establishing countermeasures for reinforcing resilience in vulnerable areas.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.545-556
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• 2022

It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.353-360
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• 2010

The result of analysis of the observed temperature data by the Serial Oceanography Investigation of National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (NFRDI) during last 41 years from 1969 to 2008 showed that sea surface temperatures in the East, West and South Sea of Korea were clearly increased. In case of 100m depth, temperature was increased in the South Sea of Korea, but it was decreased in the East Sea. Especially, the temperature around the coastal area in the East Sea was significantly decreased by the spatial distribution of long-term change of temperature on 100m depth. It should lead to the decreasing trend in the long-term change of temperature on 100 m depth in the entire East Sea. The increasing trend was clearly larger in wintertime than in summertime by a factor of about 2 It means that the long-term increasing trend of sea surface temperature in the Korean Waters is usually caused by the distinctive increasing trend in wintertime. As the results of the analysis of air temperature and wind speed on the 6stations around the coastal area in the Korean Waters, air temperature was found to be continuously increased, but wind speed to be gradually decreased in winter. The weakness of vertical mixing by decreasing of wind speed caused to make the surface mixed layer shallow. it could be considered that the increasing trend of surface temperature was caused by weak mixing between surface and intermediate layers.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.249-258
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• 2008

Oxygen isotopic composition(${\delta}^{18}O$) of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, otoliths were measured to investigate interannual and regional correlation with habitat temperature. Specimens were collected from fishermen in Korea and Japan between $1997{\sim}1999$, while seawater temperatures were obtained from Korean and Japanese Oceanographic Data Centers. Seawater temperature was generally lower off the eastern Korean Peninsula than off eastern Hokkaido(Japan). Sagittal otoliths were removed for measurement of ${\delta}^{18}O$ using a micro-drilling technique. In most cases, ${\delta}^{18}O$ and habitat temperature exhibited negative relationship in Korean and Japanese waters. Higher ${\delta}^{18}O$ was observed in Korean pollock compared to Japanese pollock. The marginal parts of otoliths exhibited higher ${\delta}^{18}O$ than cores from both regions. This is an indication that somatic growth of walleye pollock occurs in deeper and cooler waters. Interannual variation in ${\delta}^{18}O$ was also observed. Mean ${\delta}^{18}O$ values acquired from 1997 otoliths were lower(2.15%) than those of 1998(2.67%) and 1999 (2.65%) in Korean pollock. These measurements coincided with changes in observed temperature in Korean waters, in which mean seawater temperature was warmer in 1997 than in 1998 and 1999. In Japanese waters, mean seawater temperature was lowest in 1997, which coincided with highest ${\delta}^{18}O$ values in the same year.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2009

The characteristics, intensity and direction of groundwater.surface water interactions are controlled by groundwater head gradients, hydraulic conductivity and by the riverbed geometry. As a result of the spatial heterogeneity of these factors and the subsequent variability of the impact of these interaction processes, the water balance is also characterized by highly variable spatial patterns and temporal dynamics. However, spatially detailed studies concerning the spatio-temporal variability of the extent and intensity of surface-groundwater interactions have been limited to the investigation of cross-sections or small stream reaches. Thus, the extensive study on the watershed based interaction between surface water and groundwater is to be analyzed. In this study, the intensity and the spatial extent of interactions along the stream were found by using integrated SWAT-MODFLOW model. This integrated modeling approach was applied to Anyangcheon watershed in Korea. The effluent stream characteristics were found in the watershed, namely, baseflow was annually discharged except heavy rainy periods. The intensity and the spatial extent of surface-groundwater interactions in different sub-watersheds were found on a daily basis. The influential extent of surface-groundwater interaction become larger as the watershed elevations are lower.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.273-283
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• 2020

Quantitative forecasting of groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater variation and vulnerability is very important. To achieve this purpose, various time series analysis and machine learning techniques have been used. In this study, we developed a prediction model based on LSTM (Long short term memory), one of the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, for predicting the daily groundwater level of 11 groundwater wells in Hankyung-myeon, Jeju Island. In general, the groundwater level in Jeju Island is highly autocorrelated with tides and reflected the effects of precipitation. In order to construct an input and output variables based on the characteristics of addressing data, the precipitation data of the corresponding period was added to the groundwater level data. The LSTM neural network was trained using the initial 365-day data showing the four seasons and the remaining data were used for verification to evaluate the fitness of the predictive model. The model was developed using Keras, a Python-based deep learning framework, and the NVIDIA CUDA architecture was implemented to enhance the learning speed. As a result of learning and verifying the groundwater level variation using the LSTM neural network, the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.98 on average, indicating that the predictive model developed was very accurate.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.253-265
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• 2013

The objective of this study is to analyse the current climate zone applied by K$\ddot{o}$ppen climate classification and the future climate zone projected by the A2 scenario in Asia regions. The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and temperature were also analyzed. As regards to the result of analysis on the variation of climate factor, temperature and precipitation will be increasing $4.0^{\circ}C$ and 12% respectively in the 2080s comparing with the reference period (1991~2010). Spatially, the range of temperature increase on the high latitude area is higher than that on the low latitude area. The precipitation will be increasing averagely in the overall area, but the spatial unequal distribution of precipitation will be intensified. At the result of the future climate zone, the area of warm climates will be increasing while the area of cold climates will be decreasing. In 2080s, the temperature will be increasing as much as 7.2% and 1.9% on the Tropical climates and Arid climates respectively, but it will be decreasing as -2.4%, -4.9% and -1.8% on the Warm temperate climates, Cold climates and Polar climates respectively. Furthermore, the part of Savannah climates and Desert climates will be mostly increasing. It is mainly caused by the temperature increase and desertification impact according to global warming.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.698-701
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• 2007

지하수 개발가능량 산정을 위한 함양량의 평가는 수문계의 물리적인 형태나 함수층의 수리성 분석 및 수직인 지질분포를 파악하여 어떤 조건하에서 물이 유입 유출되는가를 파악한 후에만 가능하다. 또한 지하수계의 물리적인 형태를 이해함으로써 조사지역의 지표수계나 지하수계의 양계를 통해서 흐르는 물의 양을 결정짓는 물수지 분석이 수행되어야 한다. 이에 따라 강수량, 증발산량, 지하수 유출량, 지표유출량 그리고 하천유출량 등을 수문학적으로 고려해야만 한다. 본 연구는 지표수-지하수 결합모형을 도입하여 분포형 지하수 함양량의 시공간적인 변동성을 파악하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 지표수-지하수 결합모형인 SWAT-K모형을 미호천 유역에 적용하였으며, 지표수의 총유출량과 지하수위의 공간분포자료를 이용하여 검정과 검증을 수행하였다. 전체유역에 대한 연평균 함양량은 수문총량의 약 19%인 것으로 나타났다. 1999년${\sim}$2004년까지의 소유역별 연간 함양량 결과를 월별로 나타냈으며, HRU(Hydrologic Response Unit)별 함양량의 공간분포를 통해 월별, 계절별 특성을 살펴볼 수 있었다. 소유역 모두 강수가 집중하는 7-9월에 걸쳐 많은 함양이 이루어지며 $1{\sim}3$월에는 상대적으로 함양이 적은 것을 볼 수 있다. 월함양량의 경우 최대 약200mm범위내에서 유역의 토지이용 및 토양특성, 경사등에 따라 매우 비균질하게 분포하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이와같은 함양량의 시공간적 불균일성으로 인해 지하수 관리방안은 소유역별 함양특성을 반영해야 할 것으로 판단된다.의 종분산지수가 일반적인 자연대수층에 비해 9.1배 정도 높다는 것을 의미한다. 이는 시험대수층의 투수성이 매우 높아 염소이온의 용질이송이 매우 빠르게 발생되었기 때문이다. 본 연구에서 추정된 종분산지수를 Gelhar et al.(1992)의 연구 결과와 비교 분석한 결과에서도 시험규모에 비해 매우 높은 수리분산이 발생된 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 염소이온의 확산면적을 추정하기 위해, 수렴흐름 추적자시험에 의한 종분산지수와 시험대수층의 평균선형유속을 이용하여 종분산계수를 구하였다. 현장에서 수행된 양수시험에 의한 평균선형유속 22.44 m/day와 평균 종분산지수 0.4155 m를 적용하여 산정된 종분산계수는 $9.32\;m^2/day$이었다. 따라서, 시험부지 내 충적층에서 일정한 양수율$(2,500\;m^3/day)$로 지하수를 개발할 시에 양수정 주변지역으로 유입되는 염소이온의 확산면적은 1일 $9.32\;m^2$ 정도일 것으로 나타났다.적인 $OH{\cdot}$ 의 생성은 ascorbate가 조직손상에 관여할 가능성을 시사하였다.었다. 정확한 예측치를 얻기 위하여 불균질 조직이 조사야에 포함되는 경우 보정이 요구되며, 골반의 경우 골 조직의 보정이 중요한 요인임을 알 수 있었다. 이를 위하여 불균질 조직에 대한 정확한 정보가 요구되며, 이는 CT 영상을 이용하는 것이 크게 도움이 되리라 생각된다.전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.39-50
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• 2012

The objective of this study is the quantitative analysis of climate change effects by performing several statistical analyses with hydrometeorological data sets for past 30 years in Geum river watershed. Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity data sets were collected from eight observation stations for 37 years(1973~2009) in Geum river watershed. River level data was collected from Gongju and Gyuam gauge stations for 36 years(1973~2008) considering rating curve credibility problems and future long-term runoff modeling. Annual and seasonal year-to-year variation of hydrometeorological components were analyzed by calculating the average, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation. The results show precipitation has the strongest variability. Run test, Turning point test, and Anderson Exact test were performed to check if there is randomness in the data sets. Temperature and precipitation data have randomness and relative humidity and river level data have regularity. Groundwater level data has both aspects(randomness and regularity). Linear regression and Mann-Kendal test were performed for trend test. Temperature is increasing yearly and seasonally and precipitation is increasing in summer. Relative humidity is obviously decreasing. The results of this study can be used for the evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources and the establishment of future water resources management technique development plan.