• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가치판단

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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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Human Parathyroid Hormone-Related Peptide Measurement in the Lung Cancer Patients (폐암환자에서 인체 부갑상선 호르몬 관련 단백에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Joon;Kim, Se-Kyu;Lim, Sung-Kil;Lee, Hong-Lyeol;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Won-Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.855-861
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    • 1995
  • Background: Parathyroid hormone-related protein(PTHrp) was first identified as the cause of hypercalcemia in malignancy. Hypercalcemia can be found in malignancy, especially in the epidermoid carcinoma of the lung, even without extensive metastases to the bones. The application of sensitive assays for PTHrp may help in the early diagnosis of lung cancer, in the monitoring of treatment and in the detection of recurrence. Method: Serum PTHrp was measured by radioimmunoassay detecting the N-terminal 1~34 peptide of human PTHrp(PTHrp 1-34) in 63 histologically confirmed lung cancer patients and 22 healthy controls. Result: Serum PTHrp(mean$\pm$S.E.) was $312{\pm}68.9pg/ml$ in 63 lung cancer patients and $158{\pm}38.2pg/ml$ in 22 controls(p>0.05). PTHrp was $356{\pm}103.9pg/ml$ in 34 epidermoid carcinoma patients, $281{\pm}148.7pg/ml$ in 15 adenocarcinoma patients and $316{\pm}140.8pg/ml$ in 9 small cell carcinoma patients. In epidermoid carcinoma patients, PTHrp was $570{\pm}472.3pg/ml$ in stage II(n=3; p<0.05 vs controls), $166{\pm}22.4pg/ml$ in stage IIIa(n=9), $282{\pm}113.3pg/ml$ in stage IIIb(n=12) and $668{\pm}367.9pg/ml$ in stage IV(n=9; p<0.05 vs controls). PTHrp was significantly increased in 8 epidermoid carcinoma patients with bone metastases($1526{\pm}811.2\;pg/ml$; p<0.0005 vs controls). Hypercalcemia was observed in an epidermoid carcinoma patient whose PTHrp value was 244 pg/ml. Conclusion: The serum PTHrp was increased in advanced epidermoid carcinoma patients even without hypercalcemia. The measurement of PTHrp may be not helpful in the early diagnosis of lung cancer. But the lung cancer should be suspected in the marked elevation of PTHrp. It may be of value in detecting patients of advanced diseases with bone metastases or patients who might develop the malignancy associated hypercalcemia.

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Clinical Applications and Efficacy of Korean Ginseng (고려인삼의 주요 효능과 그 임상적 응용)

  • Nam, Ki-Yeul
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2002
  • Korean ginseng (Panax ginseng C.A. Meyer) received a great deal of attention from the Orient and West as a tonic agent, health food and/or alternative herbal therapeutic agent. However, controversy with respect to scientific evidence on pharmacological effects especially, evaluation of clinical efficacy and the methodological approach still remains to be solved. Author reviewed those articles published since 1980 when pharmacodynamic studies on ginseng have intensively started. Special concern was paid on metabolic disorders including diabetes mellitus, circulatory disorders, malignant tumor, sexual dysfunction, and physical and mental performance to give clear information to those who are interested in pharmacological study of ginseng and to promote its clinical use. With respect to chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis, high blood pressure, malignant disorders, and sexual disorders, it seems that ginseng plays preventive and restorative role rather than therapeutics. Particularly, ginseng plays a significant role in ameliorating subjective symptoms and preventing quality of life from deteriorating by long term exposure of chemical therapeutic agents. Also it seems that the potency of ginseng is mild, therefore it could be more effective when used concomitantly with conventional therapy. Clinical studies on the tonic effect of ginseng on work performance demonstrated that physical and mental dysfunction induced by various stresses are improved by increasing adaptability of physical condition. However, the results obtained from clinical studies cannot be mentioned in the indication, which are variable upon the scientist who performed those studies. In this respect, standardized ginseng product and providing planning of the systematic clinical research in double-blind randomized controlled trials are needed to assess the real efficacy for proposing ginseng indication. Pharmacological mode of action of ginseng has not yet been fully elucidated. Pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic researches reveal that the role of ginseng not seem to be confined to a given single organ. It has been known that ginseng plays a beneficial role in such general organs as central nervous, endocrine, metabolic, immune systems, which means ginseng improves general physical and mental conditons. Such multivalent effect of ginseng can be attributed to the main active component of ginseng,ginsenosides or non-saponin compounds which are also recently suggested to be another active ingredients. As is generally the similar case with other herbal medicines, effects of ginseng cannot be attributed as a given single compound or group of components. Diversified ingredients play synergistic or antagonistic role each other and act in harmonized manner. A few cases of adverse effect in clinical uses are reported, however, it is not observed when standardized ginseng products are used and recommended dose was administered. Unfavorable interaction with other drugs has also been suggested, which the information on the products and administered dosage are not available. However, efficacy, safety, interaction or contraindication with other medicines has to be more intensively investigated in order to promote clinical application of ginseng. For example, daily recommended doses per day are not agreement as 1-2g in the West and 3-6 g in the Orient. Duration of administration also seems variable according to the purpose. Two to three months are generally recommended to feel the benefit but time- and dose-dependent effects of ginseng still need to be solved from now on. Furthermore, the effect of ginsenosides transformed by the intestinal microflora, and differential effect associated with ginsenosides content and its composition also should be clinically evaluated in the future. In conclusion, the more wide-spread use of ginseng as a herbal medicine or nutraceutical supplement warrants the more rigorous investigations to assess its effacy and safety. In addition, a careful quality control of ginseng preparations should be done to ensure an acceptable standardization of commercial products.

A Study on the Meaning and Future of the Moon Treaty (달조약의 의미와 전망에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.215-236
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    • 2006
  • This article focused on the meaning of the 1979 Moon Treaty and its future. Although the Moon Treaty is one of the major 5 space related treaties, it was accepted by only 11 member states which are non-space powers, thus having the least enfluences on the field of space law. And this article analysed the relationship between the 1979 Moon Treay and 1967 Space Treaty which was the first principle treaty, and searched the meaning of the "Common Heritage of Mankind(hereinafter CHM)" stipulated in the Moon treaty in terms of international law. This article also dealt with the present and future problems arising from the Moon Treaty. As far as the 1967 Space Treaty is concerned the main standpoint is that outer space including the moon and the other celestial bodies is res extra commercium, areas not subject to national appropriation like high seas. It proclaims the principle non-appropriation concerning the celestial bodies in outer space. But the concept of CHM stipulated in the Moon Treaty created an entirely new category of territory in international law. This concept basically conveys the idea that the management, exploitation and distribution of natural resources of the area in question are matters to be decided by the international community and are not to be left to the initiative and discretion of individual states or their nationals. Similar provision is found in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention that operates the International Sea-bed Authority created by the concept of CHM. According to the Moon Treaty international regime will be established as the exploitation of the natural resources of the celestial bodies other than the Earth is about to become feasible. Before the establishment of an international regime we could imagine moratorium upon the expoitation of the natural resources on the celestial bodies. But the drafting history of the Moon Treaty indicates that no moratorium on the exploitation of natural resources was intended prior to the setting up of the international regime. So each State Party could exploit the natural resources bearing in mind that those resouces are CHM. In this respect it would be better for Korea, now not a party to the Moon Treaty, to be a member state in the near future. According to the Moon Treaty the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly the exploitation of the moon shall be given special consideration. The Moon Treaty, which although is criticised by some space law experts represents a solid basis upon which further space exploration can continue, shows the expression of the common collective wisdom of all member States of the United Nations and responds the needs and possibilities of those that have already their technologies into outer space.

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Soil Surface Fixation by Direct Sowing of Zoysia japonica with Soil Improvement on the Dredged Soil Slope (해저준설토 사면에서 개량제 처리에 의한 한국들잔디 직파 지표고정 공법에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Yong-Ho;Lee, Im-Kyun;Seo, Kyung-Won;Lim, Joo-Hoon;Kim, Jung-Ho;Shin, Moon-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to compare the growth of Zoysia japonica depending on different soil treatments in Saemangeum sea dike, which is filled with dredged soil. Zoysia japonica was planted using sod-pitching method on the control plot. On plots which were treated with forest soil and soil improvement, Zoysia japonica seeds were sprayed mechanically. Sixteen months after planting, coverage rate, leaf length, leaf width, and root length were measured and analyzed. Also, three Zoysia japonica samples per plot were collected to analyze nutrient contents. Coverage rate was 100% in B treatment plot(dredged soil+$40kg/m^3$ soil improvement+forest soil), in C treatment plots (dredged soil+$60kg/m^3$ soil improvement+forest soil), and D treatment plots (dredged soil+$60kg/m^3$ soil improvement), while only 43% of the soil surface was covered with Zoysia japonica on control plots. The width of the leaf on C treatment plots (3.79mm) was the highest followed by D treatment (3.49mm), B treatment (2.40mm) and control plots (1.97mm). Leaf and root length of D treatment was 30.18cm and 13.18cm, which were highest among different treatments. The leaf length of D treatment was highest followed by C, B, and A treatments. The root length of D treatment was highest followed by C, A, and B treatments. The nitrogen and phosphate contents of the above ground part of Zoysia japonica were highest in C treatment, followed by D, B, and A treatments. The nitrogen and phosphate contents of the underground part of Zoysia japonica were highest in D treatment, followed by C, A, and B treatments. C and D treatments showed the best results in every aspect of grass growth. The results of this study could be used to identify the cost effective way to improve soil quality for soil surface fixation on reclaimed areas using grass species.

Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Application of OECD Agricultural Water Use Indicator in Korea (우리나라에 적합한 OECD 농업용수 사용지표의 설정)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Eom, Ki-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2006
  • In Korea, there is a growing competitive for water resources between industrial, domestic and agricultural consumer, and the environment as many other OECD countries. The demand on water use is also affecting aquatic ecosystems particularly where withdrawals are in excess of minimum environmental needs for rivers, lakes and wetland habits. OECD developed three indicators related to water use by the agriculture in above contexts : the first is a water use intensity indicator, which is expressed as the quantity or share of agricultural water use in total national water utilization; the second is a water stress indicator, which is expressed as the proportion of rivers (in length) subject to diversion or regulation for irrigation without reserving a minimum of limiting reference flow; and the third is a water use efficiency indicator designated as the technical and the economic efficiency. These indicators have different meanings in the aspect of water resource conservation and sustainable water use. So, it will be more significant that the indicators should reflect the intrinsic meanings of them. The problem is that the aspect of an overall water flow in the agro-ecosystem and recycling of water use not considered in the assessment of agricultural water use needed for calculation of these water use indicators. Namely, regional or meteorological characteristics and site-specific farming practices were not considered in the calculation of these indicators. In this paper, we tried to calculate water use indicators suggested in OECD and to modify some other indicators considering our situation because water use pattern and water cycling in Korea where paddy rice farming is dominant in the monsoon region are quite different from those of semi-arid regions. In the calculation of water use intensity, we excluded the amount of water restored through the ground from the total agricultural water use because a large amount of water supplied to the farm was discharged into the stream or the ground water. The resultant water use intensity was 22.9% in 2001. As for water stress indicator, Korea has not defined nor monitored reference levels of minimum flow rate for rivers subject to diversion of water for irrigation. So, we calculated the water stress indicator in a different way from OECD method. The water stress indicator was calculated using data on the degree of water storage in agricultural water reservoirs because 87% of water for irrigation was taken from the agricultural water reservoirs. Water use technical efficiency was calculated as the reverse of the ratio of irrigation water to a standard water requirement of the paddy rice. The efficiency in 2001 was better than in 1990 and 1998. As for the economic efficiency for water use, we think that there are a lot of things to be taken into considerations to make a useful indicator to reflect socio-economic values of agricultural products resulted from the water use. Conclusively, site-specific, regional or meteorogical characteristics as in Korea were not considered in the calculation of water use indicators by methods suggested in OECD(Volume 3, 2001). So, it is needed to develop a new indicators for the indicators to be more widely applicable in the world.

Dispersion of Standing Stones at Noseongsan(Mt.Noseong) and Aspect of the Stone Decorated Garden(Soo-suk Jeongwon) at Chongsuk-Sa(Chongsuk Buddhist Temple) in Nonsan City (논산 노성산(魯城山)의 입석(立石) 분포와 총석사(叢石寺) 수석(樹石)의 정원적 면모)

  • Rho, Jae Hyun;Huh, Joon;Jang, Il Young
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.160-189
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    • 2010
  • This study has been designed to grasp the present situation, shapes and meaning of the standing stones and rock pillars in the whole area of Noseong Mountain Fortress in Nonsan City which have never been academically reported yet. Accordingly, the research was carried out to grasp the spatial identity of Noseong Mt. and Noseong Mountain Fortress and the dispersion of standing stones scattered around inside and outside Noseong Mountain Fortress, while the shapes and structural characteristics of stones were investigated and analyzed focusing on Chongsuk Temple, which was considered to have the highest density of standing stones and greatest values for preservation as a cultural property. In consideration of the reference to the 'Top Sa' (tower temple) at the 'Bul Woo Jo' (Article about Buddhism Houses) of 'Shinjoong Dongguk Yeoji Seungram', theoretical existence of the temple according to surveying investigation, and the excavation records of roof tile pieces with the name of 'Gwan Eum Temple', it is presumed that there had been a Buddhist sanctum inside the fortress and it could be connected to the carved letters, 'Chongsuk Temple'. According the observation survey, the 6th place of standing stones among many other places inside the fortress shows that Chongsuk Temple appears to have the strong characteristics of artificially constructed space in consideration of the size of trees and stones, the composite trend of tree and stone composition, and trace of the adjacent well and strand and the construction of stairway leading to the stone gate. Along with the constellation of the Big Dipper carved on a rock at the same space, the stones, on which the letters of 'Shinseonam', 'Chilseongam' and 'Daejangam' were carved, including 'Chongsuksa', and the carved statue of Buddha, which was assumed to be Avalokitesvara Guan Yin, have offered clue which make it possible to infer that the space was a space for Chilseong and Mountain god(Folk Belief) that had originated from the combination of Buddhism, Taoism and folk religion. According to the actual measurement of standing stones at Chonsuk Temple, it was identified that there were big differences in height among 24 stones in total, ranging from 402~29cm and the averaged distance between each stone appeared to be 23.6cm. And the shape of stones appeared to be standing or flat, and various stones such as mountain-like stones and Buddha-like stones were placed in a special arrangement or assorted arrangement, but the direction of the stones had a consistency pointing to the west. And comparing to the trace of construction of ZEN Landscape Garden well known in the country, the three flat stones except for the standing and shaped stones appeared to have the shape of meditation statue, which is the typical formational factors of a ZEN Landscape Garden, on the basis of formational technique of stones. Among them, the flat stone facing the Buddhist saint statue, was formed by way of symbolization of three-mountain stone, which was assumed to be an offering stone for sacrificial food rather than carrying out ZEN Meditation. In consideration of the formation of standing stones at Chong-suk Temple, which was carried out in the composite stoning method based using the scalene triangle with ratio of 3:5:7 in order to seek the in-depth beauty based on the stone statues of three Buddhas where the three factors such as heaven, earth and humans are embodied in the elevated or flat formation, the stones at Chongsuk Temple and the space seemed to the trace of contracted garden construction that was formed with stones for a temple, so that could be used for ZEN meditation.

The Study on Conservation and Management of Natural Habitat of Spleenworts on Samdo Island (Asplenium antiquum Makino), Jeju (Natural Monument No. 18) (천연기념물 제주 삼도 파초일엽 자생지 생육 및 관리 현황 연구)

  • Shin, Jin-Ho;Kim, Han;Lee, Na-Ra;Son, Ji-Won
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.280-291
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    • 2019
  • A. antiquum, first observed in Jeju Samdo Island in 1949, was designated as the Natural Monument No. 18 in December 1962 in recognition of its academic value. In Korea, it grows in nature only in Samdo in Jeju Island. Although its natural habitat was greatly damaged and almost destroyed due to firewood, stealing, etc. After the emancipation, it has been maintained by the transplantation and restoration. The site observed by this study has been managed as a restricted area since 2011. Since it has been about 20 years since the restoration of the native site in the 2000s, it is necessary to check the official management history records, such as the origin of transplantation and restoration to monitor the changes in the growth status and to control the habitat. As the results of this study, we have secured the records of cultural property management history, such as the identification of native species and the transplantation and restoration records. We also examined the change of the growth and development of A. antiquum 20 years after the restoration. There are no official records of the individuals transplanted to the restored natural habitat of A. antiquum in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was a controversy about the nativeness of those individuals that were restored and transplanted in 1974 since they were Japanese individuals. The studies of identifying native as the results of this study, we have secured the records of cultural property management history, such as the identification of native species and the transplantation and restoration records. We also examined the change of the growth and development of A. antiquum 20 years after the restoration. There are two sites in natural habitat in Samdo Island. A total of 65 individuals grow in three layers on three stone walls in a site while 29 individuals grow in two columns in the other site. A. antiquum grows in an evergreen broad-leaved forest dominated by Neolitsea sericea, and we did not find any other individuals of naturally growing A. antiquum outside the investigated site. This study checked the distribution of A. antiquum seedlings observed initially after the restoration. There were more than 300 seedling individuals, and we selected three densely populated sites for monitoring. There were 23 A. antiquum seedlings with 4 - 17 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 0.5 - 20 cm in monitoring site 1. There were 88 individuals with 5 - 6 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 1.3 - 10.4 cm in monitoring site 2 while there were 22 individuals with 5 - 9 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 4.5 - 12.1 cm in monitoring site 3. Although the natural habitat of A. antiquum was designated as a restricted public area in 2011, there is a high possibility that the habitat can be damaged because some activities, such as fishing and scuba diving are allowed. Therefore, it is necessary to enforce the law strictly, to provide sufficient education for the preservation of natural treasures, and to present accurate information about cultural assets.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.