Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.26 no.4
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- pp.127-148
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- 2020
The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.
The expansion of the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) plume during summer is known to be a major factor influencing phytoplankton diversity, community structure, and the regional marine environment of the northern East China Sea (ECS). The discharge of the CDW plume was very high in the summer of 2020, and cruise surveys and stationary monitoring were conducted to understand the dynamics of changes in environmental characteristics and the impact on phytoplankton diversity and community structure. A cruise survey was conducted from August 16 to 17, 2020, using R/V Eardo, and a stay survey at the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) from August 15 to 21, 2020, to analyze phytoplankton diversity and community structure. The southwestern part of the survey area exhibited low salinity and high chlorophyll a fluorescence under the influence of the CDW plume, whereas the southeastern part of the survey area presented high salinity and low chlorophyll a fluorescence under the influence of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC). The total chlorophyll a concentrations of surface water samples from 12 sampling stations indicated that nano-phytoplankton (20-3 ㎛) and micro-phytoplankton (> 20 ㎛) were the dominant groups during the survey period. Only stations strongly influenced by the TWC presented approximately 50% of the biomass contributed by pico-phytoplankton (< 3 ㎛). The size distribution of phytoplankton in the surface water samples is related to nutrient supplies, and areas where high nutrient (nitrate) supplies were provided by the CDW plume displayed higher biomass contribution by micro-phytoplankton groups. A total of 45 genera of nano- and micro-phytoplankton groups were classified using morphological analysis. Among them, the dominant taxa were the diatoms Guinardia flaccida and Nitzschia spp. and the dinoflagellates Gonyaulax monacantha, Noctiluca scintillans, Gymnodinium spirale, Heterocapsa spp., Prorocentrum micans, and Tripos furca. The sampling stations affected by the TWC and low in nitrate concentrations presented high concentrations of photosynthetic pico-eukaryotes (PPE) and photosynthetic pico-prokaryotes (PPP). Most sampling stations had phosphate-limited conditions. Higher Synechococcus concentrations were enumerated for the sampling stations influenced by low-nutrient water of the TWC using flow cytometry. The NGS analysis revealed 29 clades of Synechococcus among PPP, and 11 clades displayed a dominance rate of 1% or more at least once in one sample. Clade II was the dominant group in the surface water, whereas various clades (Clades I, IV, etc.) were found to be the next dominant groups in the SCM layers. The Prochlorococcus group, belonging to the PPP, observed in the warm water region, presented a high-light-adapted ecotype and did not appear in the northern part of the survey region. PPE analysis resulted in 163 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), indicating very high diversity. Among them, 11 major taxa showed dominant OTUs with more than 5% in at least one sample, while Amphidinium testudo was the dominant taxon in the surface water in the low-salinity region affected by the CDW plume, and the chlorophyta was dominant in the SCM layer. In the warm water region affected by the TWC, various groups of haptophytes were dominant. Observations from the IORS also presented similar results to the cruise survey results for biomass, size distribution, and diversity of phytoplankton. The results revealed the various dynamic responses of phytoplankton influenced by the CDW plume. By comparing the results from the IORS and research cruise studies, the study confirmed that the IORS is an important observational station to monitor the dynamic impact of the CDW plume. In future research, it is necessary to establish an effective use of IORS in preparation for changes in the ECS summer environment and ecosystem due to climate change.
In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.
1. Research Purpose Consumers rely on various clues to evaluate their decision to patronize a retail store, and store brand is one of them (Dodds 1991; Grewal et al. 1998). As consumers find ever increasing variety of contact points connecting them to specific store, the value of experiential shopping as a means of increasing store's brand equity warrants greater attention from scholars of retail management. Retail shopping values are credited for creating not only cognitive experiences like brand knowledge but also emotional experiences such as shopping pleasure and pride (Schmitt 1999). This may be because today's consumers place emphasis on emotional values associated with shopping pleasure, lifestyle brought to life, brand relationship, and store atmosphere more than utilitarian values such as product quality and price. Many previous literature found this to be true (Ahn and Lee 2011; Mathwick et al. 2001). This brings forth important research issues and questions regarding the roles of shopping experiential values and brand equity with regard to consumer's retail patronage choice. However, despite this importance, research on this area remains quite inadequate (Hwang 2010). For this reason, this study aims to verify the relationships among experiential shopping values, retail store brand equity and tries to link that with customer loyalty by surveying large-scale discount store shoppers in Korea and China. 2. Research Contents In order to carry out the research objective, this study conducted comprehensive literature survey on previous literature by discussing major findings and implications with regard to shopping values and retail brand equity and store loyalty. For data collection, researcher employed survey-based research method where data were collected in two major cities of Korea (Seoul) and China (Bejing) and sampling frame was based on patrons of large discount stores in both countries. Specific research questions raised in this study are as follows; RQ1: How do Korean and Chinese consumers differently perceive of shopping values regarding shopping at large-sclae discount stores? RQ2: Are there differences in consumers' emotional consumption propensities? RQ3: Do Korean and Chinese consumers display different perceptions of brand equity towards large-scale discount stores? RQ4: Are there differences in relationships between shopping values and brand equity for Korean and Chinese consumers? For statistical analysis, SPSS17.0, AMOS17.0 and SmartPLS were employed. 3. Research Results The data collected through face-to-face survey conducted in Seoul and Bejing revealed appropriate data validity and reliability as a result of exploratory/confirmatory factor analysis and reliability tests, andh SEM model yielding satisfactory model fitness. The result of the study may be summarized by three main points. First, as a result of testing differences in consumption dispositions, Chinese consumers showed higher scores in aesthetic and symbolic dispositions, whereas Korean consumers scored higher in hedonic disposition. Second, testing on perceptions toward brand equity of large discount stores showed that Korean consumers exhibited more positive perceptions of brand awareness and brand image than Chinese counterparts. Third, the result of exploratory factor analysis on the experiential shopping values revealed different factors for each country. On Korean side, consumer interest value, aesthetic value, and hedonic value were prominent, whereas on Chinese side, hedonic value, aesthetic value, consumer interest value, and service excellence value were found salient. 4. Research Implications While many previous studies on inter-country differences in retailing area mainly focused on cultural dispositions or orientations to explain the differences, this study sets itself apart by specifically targeting individual consumer's shopping values from an experiential viewpoint. The study result provides important theoretical as well as practical implications for large-scale discount store, especially the impotance of fully exploring the linkage between shopping values and brand equity, which has significant influence on loyalty. Therefore, the specific implications deriving from the result shed some important insights upon the consumption values based on shopping experiences and brand equity. The differences found in store shoppers between the two countries may also provide useful insights for Korean and Chinese retailers who plan to expand their operations globally. Related strategic implications derived from this study is the importance of localizing retail strategy which is based on the differences found in experiential shopping values between the two country groups. Especially the finding that Chinese consumers value consumer interest and service excellence, whereas Koreans place importance on hedonic or aesthetic values indicates the need to differentiate the consumer's psychographical profiles when it comes to expanding retail operations globally. Particularly important will be to pursue price-orienated strategy in China in consideration of the high emphasis on consumer interests and service excellence, but to emphasize the symbolic aspects of brand equity in Korea by maximizing the brand equity associated with aesthetic values and hedonic orientations. 5. Recommendations This study focused on generic retail branded discount stores in both countries, thus making it difficult to tease out store-specific strategies based on specific retail brands. Future studies may benefit fro employing actual brand names in survey questionnaire to verify relationship between shopping values and brand-based store strategy. As with other studies of this nature, this study needs to strengthen the result's generalizability by selecting respondents from a wider spectrum of respondents.
Researches about the relationship between SST(Self Service Technology) and TRI(Technology Readiness Index) have been carried out after TRI was developed by Parasuraman and his colleagues(2000). We hypothesize Consumer Readiness can also influence consumer's motivation, attitude, and intent to use SST. Currently, there has been no research on this subject. In this study, we investigated the relationship between TR, Consumer Readiness and SST Core Attitudinal Model which Dabholkar & Bagozzi(1994) proposed. The researchers also investigated moderating effects of consumer traits and situational factors to verify the acceptance of such forms of service delivery by all kinds of consumers and under different situational contexts. Self consciousness, the need for interaction with an employee, and the technology anxiety were used as consumer trait variables. Perceived waiting time and perceived crowding were used as situational variables. 380 questionnaires were distributed to a sample group of people in their 20's and 30's, and the data were analyzed with structural equation model using AMOS 18.0 program. All of Cronbach's alpha values representing reliabilities were satisfactory. The values of Composite Reliability(CR) and Average Variance Extracted(AVE) also showed the above criteria, thus providing evidence of convergent validity. To confirm discriminant validity among the constructs, confirmatory factor analysis and correlations among all the variables were examined. The results were satisfactory. The results of this study are summarized as follows. 1. Optimism and innovativeness of TR partially influenced the motivation to use SST. People who tend to be optimistic use SST because of ease of use and fun. The innovative however, usually use SST due to its performance. However, consumer readiness of role clarity, ability and self-efficacy influence all the components of motivation to use SST, ease of use, performance and fun. The relative effect of consumer readiness on the motivation to use SST was much stronger and more significant than that of TR. No other previous studies have examined the effects of Consumer Readiness on SST usage motivation, attitude and intention. It is academically meaningful that the researchers verified that Consumer Readiness is the important precedent construct influencing the self service technology core Attitudinal Model. Our findings suggest that marketers should consider fun and ease of use attributes to promote the use of self service technology. In addition, the SST usage frequency will rise rapidly when role clarity, ability, and self-efficacy which anybody can easily handle SST is assured. If the SST usage rate is increased, waiting times for customers could be decreased. Shorter waiting time could lead to higher customer satisfaction. It may also result in making a long-term profit owing to the reduced number of employees. Thus, presentation of using SST by employees or videos showing how to use it will promote the usage attitude and intent. 2. In SST core attitudinal model, performance and fun factors among SST usage motivation affected attitudes of using SST. The attitude of using SST highly influenced intent to use SST. This result is consistent with previous researches that dealt with the relationship between motivation, attitude and intention. Expectation of using SST could result in good performance just like the effect of ordering menu to service employees and to have fun since fun during its use could promote more SST usage rate. 3. In the relationship among motivation, attitude and intent in SST core attitudinal model, the moderating effect of consumer traits(self-consciousness, need for interaction with service employees and technology anxiety) and situational factors(perceived crowding and perceived waiting time) were tested. The results also supported the hypothesized moderating effects except perceived crowding. The highly self-conscious tended to form attitudes to use SST because of its fun compared to those who were less self-conscious because of its performance. People who had a high need for interaction with service employees tended to use SST for its performance. This result indicates that if ordering results are assured, SST is easily accessible to even consumers who have a high need for interaction with a service employee. When SST is easy to use, attitudes strengthen intent among people who had a high level of anxiety of technology. People who had low technology anxiety formed attitudes to use SST because of its performance. Service firms must ensure their self service technology is designed to be easy to use for those who have a high level of technology anxiety. Shorter perceived waiting times strengthened the attitude to use self service technology because of its fun. If the fun aspect is assured, people willing to use self service technology even perceive waiting time to be shorter than it actually is. Greater perceived waiting times form higher level of intent to use self service technology than those of shorter perceived waiting times. This implies that people view self service technology as a faster alternative to ordering service employees. The fun aspect of self service technology will attract a higher rate of usage for self service technology. 4. It has been proven that ease of use, performance and fun aspects are very important factors in motivation to form attitudes and intent to use self service technology regardless of the amount of perceived waiting time, self-consciousness, need for interaction with service employees, and technology anxiety. Service firms must consider these motivation aspects(ease of use, performance and fun)strongly in their promotion to use self service technology. Ease of use, assuring absolute performance compared to interaction with service employees', and adding a fun aspect will positively strengthen consumers' attitudes and intent to use self service technology. Summarizing the moderating effects, fun is the most valuable factor triggering SST usage attitude and intention. Therefore, designing self service technology to be fun will be the key to its success. This study focused on the touch screen self service technology in fast food restaurant. Although it has its limits due to the fact that it is hard to generalize the results to any other self service technology, the conceptual framework of this study can be applied to future research of any other service site.
Mystic experience such as seeing an vision could be explained as experiencing elusive and mysterious unique existence in religious way. In depth psychology, which is based on unconsciousness like analytical psychology, this could be explained as a something that gives a meaning of life and purpose through discovering health and healing. The importance of primodial experience in depth psychology is that it can possibly discover the base of present acts. In Christian theology, symbolic mystery and truth of religious experience that appear in Christian tradition have interest on human situation. These two fields' approach methods are different, but both show common interest on unique experience which can be said properly as raw experience. Various visions appear in many parts of the Bible. Among many visions, the book of Zechariah, one of the 12 Prophets, describes rich and diverse 8 visions through chapter 1 to chapter 8. However, due to the Genre of revelation, it lacks historicity, and because of vagueness and symbolic meanings, its visions are hard to understand and interpret. Theologically, visions of Zechariah show communality of Israelites by reconstructing kingdom of Judah and church in a way of historical circumstances. Though, these visions could deliver the meaning of an ethnical aspect as reporting continuous conversation between the God and humans. Furthermore, it could mean a personal aspect of the Prophet Zechariah as reaching for a opportunity of new change. Moreover, those who read these visions could try to interpret the meanings of various images which represent meeting mysterious existences. Therefore, the Author would concentrate on the fact that 8 visions in the book of Zechariah, which has not been received much attention to neither Christians nor non-believers, develop in chiastic structure (stylistic contrast), so that tries to interpret the first, second, seventh, and the eighth visions in analytic psychology way. In visions of Zechariah, excepting the 4th vision which probably was inserted later, rest of 7 visions each shows the stage of the hours of darkness. 1st to 3rd visions represent evening, 5th vision represents deep in the night, and 6th to 8th visions represent dawn to morning. Moreover, since structure of visions arranged in chiastic way, horse appears in 1st and 8th vision, measuring rope and measure tools are used as main motif in 2nd and 7th vision. However, same motifs could have different symbolic meanings and roles as visions are formed in different situations and conditions. In the first vision, angels who ride horses look around the world and report it is calm and peaceful. Concerning the political situation back in the day, the world being calm and peaceful in the beginning of evening means that it is not ready to change to a whole new world. Psychologically, if there is no readiness to adopt new world, it means being hopeless. It is sending you a message to get out of those kinds of situation. Moreover, appearance of four angels who rode red, brown, and white horses to a myrtus tree in the valley means that it is time for individuation and it is right and good timing for changing. In second vision, you will be able to see that Israelites had long years being caught in the shadows by foreign country, and long years succumbed by the strength of four horns, which shows the progress of renewing strength and being oneness with oneself from overwhelmed situation by paternity. In seventh vision, meaning of two women bringing the godness of the sky, who were locked up in a rice basket, back to the temple in Babylon is going towards in a level of Self-actualization by separating one's ego captured excessively by matherhood and putting back to a place where it was before. In eighth vision, chariots pulled by horses are scattered far and wide, and horses which went to north had rest in the land of North. After horses and chariots are seen between two mountains of bronze with the image of Self and anima/animus. These images can be explained as the changing progress are almost completed and the God and human, in other words Self and ego are being united and is now time for rest. All of 8 visions contains the conversation between angel and Zechariah who willing to know the meaning of visions. Zechariah asks the angel actively about the meaning of visions because of his wish for Israelites to return home and rebuild church. Conversation among the God, Zechariah, who asks questions until he knows everything, an Angel, who gives answer to given questions, is conversation between ego and anima/animus. Eventually, it is a conversation between Self and ego.
The results of the study on the consumptine use of irrigated water in paddy fields during the growing season of rice plants are summarized as follows. 1. Transpiration and evaporation from water surface. 1) Amount of transpiration of rice plant increases gradually after transplantation and suddenly increases in the head swelling period and reaches the peak between the end of the head swelling poriod and early period of heading and flowering. (the sixth period for early maturing variety, the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties), then it decreases gradually after that, for early, medium and late maturing varieties. 2) In the transpiration of rice plants there is hardly any difference among varieties up to the fifth period, but the early maturing variety is the most vigorous in the sixth period, and the late maturing variety is more vigorous than others continuously after the seventh period. 3) The amount of transpiration of the sixth period for early maturing variety of the seventh period for medium and late maturing variety in which transpiration is the most vigorous, is 15% or 16% of the total amount of transpiration through all periods. 4) Transpiration of rice plants must be determined by using transpiration intensity as the standard coefficient of computation of amount of transpiration, because it originates in the physiological action.(Table 7) 5) Transpiration ratio of rice plants is approximately 450 to 480 6) Equations which are able to compute amount of transpiration of each variety up th the heading-flowering peried, in which the amount of transpiration of rice plants is the maximum in this study are as follows: Early maturing variety ; Y=0.658+1.088X Medium maturing variety ; Y=0.780+1.050X Late maturing variety ; Y=0.646+1.091X Y=amount of transpiration ; X=number of period. 7) As we know from figure 1 and 2, correlation between the amount evaporation from water surface in paddy fields and amount of transpiration shows high negative. 8) It is possible to calculate the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field for varieties used in this study on the base of ratio of it to amount of evaporation by atmometer(Table 11) and Table 10. Also the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field is to be computed by the following equations until the period in which it is the minimum quantity the sixth period for early maturing variety and the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties. Early maturing variety ; Y=4.67-0.58X Medium maturing variety ; Y=4.70-0.59X Late maturing variety ; Y=4.71-0.59X Y=amount of evaporation from water surface in the paddy field X=number of period. 9) Changes in the amount of evapo-transpiration of each growing period have the same tendency as transpiration, and the maximum quantity of early maturing variety is in the sixth period and medium or late maturing varieties are in the seventh period. 10) The amount of evapo-transpiration can be calculated on the base of the evapo-transpiration intensity (Table 14) and Tablet 12, for varieties used in this study. Also, it is possible to compute it according to the following equations with in the period of maximum quantity. Early maturing variety ; Y=5.36+0.503X Medium maturing variety ; Y=5.41+0.456X Late maturing variety ; Y=5.80+0.494X Y=amount of evapo-transpiration. X=number of period. 11) Ratios of the total amount of evapo-transpiration to the total amount of evaporation by atmometer through all growing periods, are 1.23 for early maturing variety, 1.25 for medium maturing variety, 1.27 for late maturing variety, respectively. 12) Only air temperature shows high correlation in relation between amount of evapo-transpiration and climatic conditions from the viewpoint of Korean climatic conditions through all growing periods of rice plants. 2. Amount of percolation 1) The amount of percolation for computation of planning water requirment ought to depend on water holding dates. 3. Available rainfall 1) The available rainfall and its coefficient of each period during the growing season of paddy fields are shown in Table 8. 2) The ratio (available coefficient) of available rainfall to the amount of rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields seems to be from 65% to 75% as the standard in Korea. 3) Available rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields in the common year is estimated to be about 550 millimeters. 4. Effects to be influenced upon percolation by transpiration of rice plants. 1) The stronger absorbtive action is, the more the amount of percolation decreases, because absorbtive action of rice plant roots influence upon percolation(Table 21, Table 22) 2) In case of planting of rice plants, there are several entirely different changes in the amount of percolation in the forenoon, at night and in the afternoon during the growing season, that is, is the morning and at night, the amount of percolation increases gradually after transplantation to the peak in the end of July or the early part of August (wast or soil temperature is the highest), and it decreases gradually after that, neverthless, in the afternoon, it decreases gradually after transplantation to be at the minimum in the middle of August, and it increases gradually after that. 3) In spite of the increasing amount of transpiration, the amount of daytime percolation decreases gadually after transplantation and appears to suddenly decrease about head swelling dates or heading-flowering period, but it begins to increase suddenly at the end of August again. 4) Changs of amount of percolation during all growing periods show some variable phenomena, that is, amount of percolation decreases after the end of July, and it increases in end August again, also it decreases after that once more. This phenomena may be influenced complexly from water or soil temperature(night time and forenoon) as absorbtive action of rice plant roots. 5) Correlation between the amount of daytime percolation and the amount of transpiration shows high negative, amount of night percolation is influenced by water or soil temperature, but there is little no influence by transpiration. It is estimated that the amount of a daily percolation is more influenced by of other causes than transpiration. 6) Correlation between the amount of night percoe, lation and water or soil temp tureshows high positive, but there is not any correlation between the amount of forenoon percolation or afternoon percolation and water of soil temperature. 7) There is high positive correlation which is r=+0.8382 between the amount of daily percolation of planting pot of rice plant and amount and amount of daily percolation of non-planting pot. 8) The total amount of percolation through all growin. periods of rice plants may be influenced more from specific permeability of soil, water of soil temperature, and otheres than transpiration of rice plants.
To measure variations in some of the important agronomic characteristics of rice varieties under shifting of seedling dates, this study has been carried out at the Paddy Crop Division of Crop Experiment Station(then Agricultural Experiment Station) in Suwon for the period of three years 1958 to 1960. The varieties used in this study were Kwansan, Suwon #82, Mojo, Paltal and Chokwang, which have the different agronomic characteristics such as earliness and plant type. Seeds of each variety were sown at 14 different dates in 10-day interval starting on March 2. The seedlings were grown on seed bed for 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 days, respectively. The results of this study are as follows: A. Heading dates. 1. As the seeding date was delayed, the heading dates was almost proportionally delayed. The degree of delay was higher in early varieties and lower in late varieties and the longer the seedling stage, the more delayed the heading date. 2. Number of days to heading was proportionally lessened as seeding was delayed in all the varieties but the magnitude varied depending upon variety. In other words, the required period for heading in case of late planting was much shortened in late variety compared with early one. Within a variety, the number of days to heading was less shortened as the seedling stage was prolonged. Early variety reached earlier than late variety to the marginal date for the maximum shortening of days to heading and the longer the seeding stage, the limitted date came earlier. There was a certain limit in seeding date for shortening of days to heading as seeding was delayed, and days to heading were rather prolonged due to cold weather when seeded later than that date. 3. In linear regression equation, Y=a+bx obtained from the seeding dates and the number of days to heading, the coefficient b(shortening rate of days to heading) was closely correlated with the average number of days to heading. That is, the period from seeding to heading was more shortened in late variety than early one as seeding was delayed. 4. To the extent that the seedling stage is not so long and there is a linear relationship between delay of seeding and shortening of days to heading, it might be possible to predict heading date of a rice variety to be sown any date by using the linear regression obtained from variation of heading dates under the various seeding dates of the same variety. 5. It was found out that there was a close correlation between the numbers of days to heading in ordinary culture and the other ones. When a rice variety was planted during the period from the late part of March to the middle of June and the seedling ages were within 30 to 50 days, it could be possible to estimate heading date of the variety under late or early culture with the related data of ordinary culture. B. Maturing date. 6. Within (he marginal date for maturation of rice variety, maturing date was proportionally delayed as heading was delayed. Of course, the degree of delay depended upon varieties and seedling ages. The average air temperature (Y) during the ripening period of rice variety was getting lower as the heading date. (X) was delayed. Though there was a difference among varieties, in general, a linear regression equation(y=25.53-0.182X) could be obtained as far as heading date were within August 1 to September 13. 7. Depending upon earliness of a rice variety, the average air temperature during the ripening period were greatly different. Early variety underwent under 28
Korea-China FTA entered into force on the 20th of December 2015, and one year elapsed after its effectuation as the FTA with China, our country's largest trading partner. Therefore, this study looks at the trends of air transport trade between Korea and China, and examines the contents of concessions to the air transport services sector in Korea-China FTA, and analyzes the impact on the air transport sector by Korea-China FTA, and proposes our country's aviation policy direction in order to respond to such impact. In 2016 the trends of air transport trade between Korea and China are as follows : The export amount of air transport trade to China was 40.03 billion dollars, down by 9.3% from the last year, and occupied 32.2% of the total export amount to China. The import amount of air transport trade from China was 24.26 billion dollars, down by 9.1% from the last year, and occupied 27.7% of the total import amount from China. The contents of concessions to the air transport services sector in Korea-China FTA are as follows : China made concessions to the aircraft repair and maintenance services and the computer reservation system services with limitations on market access and national treatment in the air transport services sector of the China Schedule of Specific Commitments of Korea-China FTA Chapter 8 Annex. Korea made concessions to the computer reservation system services, selling and marketing of air transport services, and aircraft repair and maintenance without limitations on market access and national treatment in the air transport services sector of the Korea Schedule of Specific Commitments of Korea-China FTA Chapter 8 Annex. The impact on the air transport sector by Korea-China FTA are as follows : As for the impact on the air passenger market, in 2016 the arrival passengers of the international flight from China were 9.96 million, up by 20.6% from the last year, and the departure passengers to China were 9.90 million, up by 34.8% from the last year. As for the impact on the air cargo market, in 2016 the exported goods volumes of air cargo to China were 105,220.2 tons, up by 6.6% from the last year, and imported goods volumes from China were 133,750.9 tons, up by 12.3% from the last year. Among the major items of exported air cargo to China, the exported goods volumes of benefited items in the Tariff Schedule of China of Korea-China FTA were increased, and among the major items of imported air cargo from China, the imported goods volumes of benefited items in the Tariff Schedule of Korea of Korea-China FTA were increased. As for the impact on the logistics market, in 2016 the handling performance of exported air cargo to China by domestic forwarders were 119,618 tons, down by 2.1% from the last year, and the handling performance of imported air cargo from China were 79,430 tons, down by 4.4% from the last year. In 2016 the e-commerce export amount to China were 109.16 million dollars, up by 27.7% from the last year, and the e-commerce import amount from China were 89.43 million dollars, up by 72% from the last year. The author proposes the aviation policy direction of Korea according to Korea-China FTA as follows : First, the open skies between Korea and China shall be pushed ahead. In June 2006 Korea and China concluded the open skies agreement within the scope of the third freedom and fourth freedom of the air for passenger and cargo in Sandong Province and Hainan Province of China, and agreed the full open skies of flights between the two countries from the summer season in 2010. However, China protested against the interpretation of the draft of the memorandum of understanding to the air services agreement, therefore the further open skies did not take place. Through the separate aviation talks with China from Korea-China FTA, the gradual and selective open skies of air passenger market and air cargo market shall be pushed ahead. Second, the competitiveness of air transport industry and airport shall be secured. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's air transport industry, the support system for the strengthening of national air carriers' competitiveness shall be prepared, and the new basis for competition of national air carriers shall be made, and the strategic network based on national interest shall be built. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's airports, particularly Incheon Airport, the competitiveness of the network for aviation demand creation shall be strengthened, and the airport facilities and safety infrastructure shall be expanded, and the new added value through the airport shall be created, and the world's No.1 level of services shall be maintained. Third, the competitiveness of aviation logistics enterprises shall be strengthened. As for the strengthening methods of the competitiveness of Korea's aviation logistics enterprises, as the upbringing strategy of higher added value in response to the industry trends changes, the new logistics market shall be developed, and the logistics infrastructure shall be expanded, and the logistics professionals shall be trained. Additionally, as the expanding strategy of global logistics market, the support system for overseas investment of logistics enterprises shall be built, and according to expanding the global transport network, the international cooperation shall be strengthened, and the network infrastructure shall be secured. As for the strengthening methods of aviation logistics competitiveness of Incheon Airport, the enterprises' demand of moving in the logistics complex shall be responded, and the comparative advantage in the field of new growth cargo shall be preoccupied, and the logistics hub's capability shall be strengthened, and the competitiveness of cargo processing speed in the airport shall be advanced. Forth, in the subsequent negotiation of Korea-China FTA, the further opening of air transport services sector shall be secured. In the subsequent negotiation being initiated within two years after entry into force of Korea-China FTA, it is necessary to ask for the further opening of the concessions of computer reservation system services, and aircraft repair and maintenance services in which the concessions level of air transport services sector by China is insufficient compared to the concessions level in the existing FTA concluded by China. In conclusion, in order to respond to the impact on Korea's air passenger market, air cargo market and aviation logistics market by Korea-China FTA, the following policy tasks shall be pushed ahead : Taking into consideration of national air carriers' competitiveness and nation's benefits, the gradual and selective open skies shall be pushed ahead, and the support system to strengthen the competitiveness of air transport industry and airport shall be built, and entry into aviation logistics market by logistics enterprises shall be expanded, and the preparations to ask for the further opening of air transport services sector, low in the concessions level by China shall be made.
To obtain useful fundamental informations for improving cultural practices of barley, an investigation was made on the influences of different fertilizer level and seeding rate as well as seeding date on yield and yield components and their balancing procedure using barley variety Suwon # 18, and at the same time, 8 varieties including Suwon # 18 were also tested to clarify the varietal responses in terms of their yield and yield components under different seeding date at Crop Experiment Station, Suwon, during the period of 1969 and 1970. The results obtained were summarized as follows; 1. Days to emergence of barley variety Suwon # 18 at Suwon, took 8 to 19 days in accordance with given different seeding date (from Sept. 21 to Oct. 31). Earlier emergence was observed by early seeding and most of the seeds were emerged at 15