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검색결과 985건 처리시간 0.021초

농촌(農村) 주민(住民)들의 의료필요도(醫療必要度)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) (A Study Concerning Health Needs in Rural Korea)

  • 이성관;김두희;정종학;정극수;박상빈;최정헌;홍순호;라진훈
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.29-94
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    • 1974
  • Today most developed countries provide modern medical care for most of the population. The rural area is the more neglected area in the medical and health field. In public health, the philosophy is that medical care for in maintenance of health is a basic right of man; it should not be discriminated against racial, environmental or financial situations. The deficiency of the medical care system, cultural bias, economic development, and ignorance of the residents about health care brought about the shortage of medical personnel and facilities on the rural areas. Moreover, medical students and physicians have been taught less about rural health care than about urban health care. Medical care, therefore, is insufficient in terms of health care personnel/and facilities in rural areas. Under such a situation, there is growing concern about the health problems among the rural population. The findings presented in this report are useful measures of the major health problems and even more important, as a guide to planning for improved medical care systems. It is hoped that findings from this study will be useful to those responsible for improving the delivery of health service for the rural population. Objectives: -to determine the health status of the residents in the rural areas. -to assess the rural population's needs in terms of health and medical care. -to make recommendations concerning improvement in the delivery of health and medical care for the rural population. Procedures: For the sampling design, the ideal would be to sample according to the proportion of the composition age-groups. As the health problems would be different by group, the sample was divided into 10 different age-groups. If the sample were allocated by proportion of composition of each age group, some age groups would be too small to estimate the health problem. The sample size of each age-group population was 100 people/age-groups. Personal interviews were conducted by specially trained medical students. The interviews dealt at length with current health status, medical care problems, utilization of medical services, medical cost paid for medical care and attitudes toward health. In addition, more information was gained from the public health field, including environmental sanitation, maternal and child health, family planning, tuberculosis control, and dental health. The sample Sample size was one fourth of total population: 1,438 The aged 10-14 years showed the largest number of 254 and the aged under one year was the smallest number of 81. Participation in examination Examination sessions usually were held in the morning every Tuesday, Wenesday, and Thursday for 3 hours at each session at the Namchun Health station. In general, the rate of participation in medical examination was low especially in ages between 10-19 years old. The highest rate of participation among are groups was the under one year age-group by 100 percent. The lowest use rate as low as 3% of those in the age-groups 10-19 years who are attending junior and senior high school in Taegu city so the time was not convenient for them to recieve examinations. Among the over 20 years old group, the rate of participation of female was higher than that of males. The results are as follows: A. Publie health problems Population: The number of pre-school age group who required child health was 724, among them infants numbered 96. Number of eligible women aged 15-44 years was 1,279, and women with husband who need maternal health numbered 700. The age-group of 65 years or older was 201 needed more health care and 65 of them had disabilities. (Table 2). Environmental sanitation: Seventy-nine percent of the residents relied upon well water as a primary source of dringking water. Ninety-three percent of the drinking water supply was rated as unfited quality for drinking. More than 90% of latrines were unhygienic, in structure design and sanitation (Table 15). Maternal and child health: Maternal health Average number of pregnancies of eligible women was 4 times. There was almost no pre- and post-natal care. Pregnancy wastage Still births was 33 per 1,000 live births. Spontaneous abortion was 156 per 1,000 live births. Induced abortion was 137 per 1,000 live births. Delivery condition More than 90 percent of deliveries were conducted at home. Attendants at last delivery were laymen by 76% and delivery without attendants was 14%. The rate of non-sterilized scissors as an instrument used to cut the umbilical cord was as high as 54% and of sickles was 14%. The rate of difficult delivery counted for 3%. Maternal death rate estimates about 35 per 10,000 live births. Child health Consultation rate for child health was almost non existant. In general, vaccination rate of children was low; vaccination rates for children aged 0-5 years with BCG and small pox were 34 and 28 percent respectively. The rate of vaccination with DPT and Polio were 23 and 25% respectively but the rate of the complete three injections were as low as 5 and 3% respectively. The number of dead children was 280 per 1,000 living children. Infants death rate was 45 per 1,000 live births (Table 16), Family planning: Approval rate of married women for family planning was as high as 86%. The rate of experiences of contraception in the past was 51%. The current rate of contraception was 37%. Willingness to use contraception in the future was as high as 86% (Table 17). Tuberculosis control: Number of registration patients at the health center currently was 25. The number indicates one eighth of estimate number of tuberculosis in the area. Number of discharged cases in the past accounted for 79 which showed 50% of active cases when discharged time. Rate of complete treatment among reasons of discharge in the past as low as 28%. There needs to be a follow up observation of the discharged cases (Table 18). Dental problems: More than 50% of the total population have at least one or more dental problems. (Table 19) B. Medical care problems Incidence rate: 1. In one month Incidence rate of medical care problems during one month was 19.6 percent. Among these health problems which required rest at home were 11.8 percent. The estimated number of patients in the total population is 1,206. The health problems reported most frequently in interviews during one month are: GI trouble, respiratory disease, neuralgia, skin disease, and communicable disease-in that order, The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the 1-4 age group and in the 60 years or over age group, the lowest rate was the 10-14 year age group. In general, 0-29 year age group except the 1-4 year age group was low incidence rate. After 30 years old the rate of health problems increases gradually with aging. Eighty-three percent of health problems that occured during one month were solved by primary medical care procedures. Seventeen percent of health problems needed secondary care. Days rested at home because of illness during one month were 0.7 days per interviewee and 8days per patient and it accounts for 2,161 days for the total productive population in the area. (Table 20) 2. In a year The incidence rate of medical care problems during a year was 74.8%, among them health problems which required rest at home was 37 percent. Estimated number of patients in the total population during a year was 4,600. The health problems that occured most frequently among the interviewees during a year were: Cold (30%), GI trouble (18), respiratory disease (11), anemia (10), diarrhea (10), neuralgia (10), parasite disease (9), ENT (7), skin (7), headache (7), trauma (4), communicable disease (3), and circulatory disease (3) -in that order. The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the infants group, thereafter the rate decreased gradually until the age 15-19 year age group which showed the lowest, and then the rate increased gradually with aging. Eighty-seven percent of health problems during a year were solved by primary medical care. Thirteen percent of them needed secondary medical care procedures. Days rested at home because of illness during a year were 16 days per interviewee and 44 days per patient and it accounted for 57,335 days lost among productive age group in the area (Table 21). Among those given medical examination, the conditions observed most frequently were respiratory disease, GI trouble, parasite disease, neuralgia, skin disease, trauma, tuberculosis, anemia, chronic obstructive lung disease, eye disorders-in that order (Table 22). The main health problems required secondary medical care are as fellows: (previous page). Utilization of medical care (treatment) The rate of treatment by various medical facilities for all health problems during one month was 73 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 52% while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was 61 percent (Table 23). The rate of receiving of medical care for all health problems during a year was 67 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 82 percent while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was as low as 53 percent (Table 24). Types of medical facilitied used were as follows: Hospital and clinics: 32-35% Herb clinics: 9-10% Drugstore: 53-58% Hospitalization Rate of hospitalization was 1.7% and the estimate number of hospitalizations among the total population during a year will be 107 persons (Table 25). Medical cost: Average medical cost per person during one month and a year were 171 and 2,800 won respectively. Average medical cost per patient during one month and a year were 1,109 and 3,740 won respectively. Average cost per household during a year was 15,800 won (Table 26, 27). Solution measures for health and medical care problems in rural area: A. Health problems which could be solved by paramedical workers such as nurses, midwives and aid nurses etc. are as follows: 1. Improvement of environmental sanitation 2. MCH except medical care problems 3. Family planning except surgical intervention 4. Tuberculosis control except diagnosis and prescription 5. Dental care except operational intervention 6. Health education for residents for improvement of utilization of medical facilities and early diagnosis etc. B. Medical care problems 1. Eighty-five percent of health problems could be solved by primary care procedures by general practitioners. 2. Fifteen percent of health problems need secondary medical procedures by a specialist. C. Medical cost Concidering the economic situation in rural area the amount of 2,062 won per residents during a year will be burdensome, so financial assistance is needed gorvernment to solve health and medical care problems for rural people.

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원발성 과호산구증가 증후군 환자들 중 폐침범을 보이는 환자군의 F-18 FDG PET 소견 (F-18 FDG PET Scan findings in Patients with Pulmonary Involvement in the Hypereosinophilic Syndrome)

  • 이재훈;김태훈;윤미진;허진;김태성;김상진;김형중;배문선;유영훈;이종두
    • 대한핵의학회지
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    • 제39권4호
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 2005
  • 목적 : F-18 FDG PET 검사는 염증성이나 감염성 병변에도 위양성 소견을 보일 수 있으며 이로 인하여 악성종양과의 감별진단을 어렵게 만드는 경우가 있다. 원발성 과호산구증가 증후군 (Hypereosinophilic syndrome)은 폐를 포함한 여러 장기에 호산구의 침윤을 보이는 염증성 질환이다. 본 연구를 통하여 이런 폐침범을 보이는 원발성 과호산구증가 증후군 환자에 있어서 PET소견을 분석하고 비정상적인 높은 섭취를 보이는 경우 폐암과 감별되는 소견을 알아보고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법 : 폐암 검진을 목적으로 시행한 저선량 흉부 CT상 결정 및 간유리 음영, 기강경화 소견을 보인 환자들 중 혈액검사상 말초 호산구 과다증을 보인 환자들을 대상으로 FDG PET 검사를 시행 하였다. 이들 중, 기생충 질환 등의 이차성 말초 과다호산구증가증의 원인을 있는 경우 연구에서 제외되었다. 총 8명 환자들의 흉부 CT는 결절, 간유리 음영, 그리고 기강경화 등의 병변 소견 등으로 구분하였으며 그 병변 위치에 상응하는 FDG PET에서 보이는 병변의 maximal 및 mean SUV에 관하여 대조분석하였다. 8명 모두 1-4주 후 추적검사를 시행하여 혈액검사 및 PET과 흉부 CT에서 관찰되었던 병변의 변화소견을 살펴보았다. 결과: 처음 시행한 FDG PET 검사 상, 8명 중 7명에서 높은 섭취를 보였으며 Peak SUV는 $2.8{\sim}10.6$ (평균: $6.4{\pm}2.6$), mean SUV는 $2.2{\sim}7.2$ (평균: $4.1{\pm}1.6$)로 측정되었다. 나머지 1명에서 peak SUV는 1.3, 그리고, mean SUV는 0.7로 측정되었다. 환자들은 평균 15.8일(범위: 7일$\sim$30일) 후 추적검사로 $^{18}F$-FDG PET, 흉부 CT, 그리고, 혈액검사를 시행받았다. PET추적검사 상 이전에 높은 섭취를 보였던 7명 중 6명에서 peak 및 mean SUV의 감소를 보였고 이전에 높은 섭취를 보인 나머지 1명과 낮은 섭취를 보인 1명에서는 병변이 완전히 소실되었다. 이러한 변화 소견은 흉부 CT 추적검사 소견과도 일치하였다. 결론: 원발성 과호산구증가 증후군 환자군에서 폐침범을 보이는 경우, 폐병변은 FDG PET 영상에서 폐암과 유사한정도의 높은 섭취를 보이는 위양성 결과를 나타내어 한번의 PET검사만으로는 양성과 악성을 감별할 수 없었다. 이러한 경우, 추적검사로 CT 및 $^{18}F$-FDG PET를 시행하여 병변의 위치 및 범위, SUV의 변화 소견을 같이 보는 것이 원발성 과호산구증가 증후군 환자에 있어서 보일 수 있는 폐침범 소견과 악성 종양을 감별하는 데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

뽕나무애바구미의 생태 및 방제에 관한 연구 (Studies on Biology and Control of the Mulberry Small Weevil, Baris deplanata ROELOFS (Coleoptera: Curculionidae))

  • 백현준;백운하
    • 한국잠사곤충학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 1976
  • 본 시험은 뽕나무애바구미의 외부형태, 생활사 및 약제방제법을 구명하기 위하여 실시하였다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 성충은 칠흑색, 장정원형이고 주둥이는 길다. 암컷의 체장은 3.30$\pm$0.04mm, 폭 1.47$\pm$0.04mm, 주둥이 길이는 1.25$\pm$0.014mm이고 숫컷의 체장은 3.28% 0.06mm, 체폭 1.40$\pm$0.04mm, 주둥이 길이는 1.30$\pm$0.02mm이었다. 더듬이는 12절의 슬상이다. 숫컷의 복부는 끝이 뽀족하게 튀어 나왔고 암컷은 거의 일직선이다. 2. 난은 유백색의 장타원형이고 길이 0.51$\pm$0.05mm, 폭 0.32$\pm$0.02mm이었다. 3. 유충은 유백색, 원통형이며 두부는 농갈색이다. 다리는 없고 체장 3.88$\pm$0.06mm, 체폭 1.40$\pm$0.02mm이고 각절에는 많은 주름과 잔털이 있다. 4. 용은 장타원형 유백색이며 나용이다. 체장은 3.53$\pm$0.09mm. 체폭 1.40$\pm$0.03mm이었다. 5. 대부분 1년1세대이고 벌채후 남는 가지속에서 성충으로 월동하며 이듬해 4월하순에서 5월초순에 탈출한다. 그러나 일부 암컷은 당년에 탈출산난하며 유충(0.4%)이나 용(0.1%)으로 월동한다. 6. 난은 대부분 벌채후 남은 가지의 전피층에 산난하고 암컷의 평균 산난수는 73.44$\pm$8.74개이고 평균 산난일수는 33.88$\pm$6.04일이었다. 난기간은 11.69$\pm$0.39일, 유충기간은 45.04$\pm$1.63일, 용기간은 11.05$\pm$0.49일이었다. 성충의 잠복기는 약 270일이고 활동기간은 46.7$\pm$5.9일이었다. 7. 유충은 가지의 형성층을 먹고 성충은 동아, 잠복아, 엽병, 신초의 기부를 가해한다. 8. 성충의 발생소장은 춘벌유전에서는 5월초순에, 하벌유전에서는 6일 중순에 두면 peak를 나타냈다. 9. 유충밀도와 가지의 지름과 길이와는 정(+)의 상관을 이루었다. 10. 뽕나무애바구미의 가지당 성충의 분포는 부(-)의 이항분포를 이루였다. 11. 조사된 천적은 유충외부에 기생하는 좀벌이 발견되었고 이 좀벌의 기생률은 11.9%이었다. 12. Phosvel분제, Halir분제, Salithion유제, DDVP유제, Cidial 유제의 성충에 대한 방제효과가 우수하였고 핵충에 대해서는 Satchukoto-S유제, Salithion유제가 비교적 우수한 편이였다.

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농촌영유아의 영양상태(營養狀態)에 관(關)한 조사연구(調査硏究) (A Study on Nutritional Status of Young Children in Rural Korea)

  • 김경식;김방지;남상옥;최정신
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 1974
  • The writers have conducted the investigation to assess the nutritional status of young rural Korean children aged from 0 to 4 years old in August 1971. The survey areas were Kaejong-myon. Daeya-myon, Okku-gun, Jeonra-bukdo, Korea. These survey areas were typical agricultural plain areas. The total numbers of children examined were 2,706 comprising 1,394 male and 1,312 female. The weight, height, and chest circumference of children were measured and means and standard deviations. were calculated for each measurement. In addition, the nutritional status of each child was classified by the four levels of malnutrition and the Gomez classification, The examination of red blood cell count, haematocrit value, and intestinal parasite infection were carried out at the same time. In general, recent work tend to suggest that environmental influences, especially nutrition, are of great importance than genetic background or other biological factors for physical growth and development. Certainly the physical dimensions of the body are much influenced by nutrition, particularly in the rapidly growing period of early childhood. Selected body measurements can therefore give valuable information concerning protein-calory malnutrition. Growth can also be affected by bacterial, viral, and parasitic infection. For the field workers in a developing country, therefore, nutritional anthropometry appears to be of greatest value in the assessment of growth failure and undernutrition, principally from lack of protein and calories. In order to compare and evaluate the data obtained, the optimal data of growth from the off-spring of the true well-fed, medically and socially protected are needed. So-called 'Standards' that have been compiled for preschool children in Korea, however, are based on measurement of children from middle or lower socio-economic groups, who are, in fact, usually undernourished from six months of age onwards and continuously exposed to a succession of infective and parasitic diseases. So that, the Harvard Standards which is one of the international reference standards was used as the reference standards in this study. Findings of the survey were as follows: A. Anthropometric data: 1) Comparing the mean values for body weight obtained with the Korean standard weight of the same age, the rural Korean children were slightly haevier than the Korean standard values in both sexes. Comparing with the Japanese children values, the rural Korean children were slightly haevier in male and in the infant period of female but lighter in female of the period of 1 to 4 years old than Japanese children. 2) Comparing the mean values for height obtained with the Korean standard height of the same age, the rural Korean children were taller than the Korean standard values except the second half of infatn period in both sexes. Comparing with the Japanese children, the rural Korean children were slightly smaller than Japanese children except the first half of infant peroid in both sexes. 3) Mear values of chest circumference of rural Korean children obtained were less than the Korean standard values of the same ages in both sexes. B. Prevalence of Protein-Calory Malnutrition: Children examined were devided into two groups, i. e., infant(up to the first birthday) and toddler (1 to 4 fears old). 1) Percentages of four levels of malnutrition: a) When the nutrtional status of each child was classified (1) by body weight value, the percentages for male and female of children attained standard growth were 52.8%(infant 83.3%, toddler 44.4%) and 39.7% (infant 74.5%. toddler 30.5%), the first level of malnutrition were 31.9%(infant 13.7%, toddler 36.9%) and 31.7%(infant 15.3%, toddler 36,0%), the second level of malnutrition were 12.3%(infant 1.7%, toddler 15.3%) and 23.3% (infant 7.7%, fodder 27.5%), the third level of malnutrition were 2.7%(infant 0.7%, toddler 3.2%) and 4.6%(infant 1.8%, toddler 5.3%) the fourth level of malnutrition were 0.3% (infant 0.7%, toddler 0.2%) and 0.7% (0.7% for infant and toddler) respectively. (2) by height value, the percentages for male and female of children attained standard growth were 80.3% (infant 97.3%, toddler 75.6%) and 75.1% (infant 96.4%, toddler 69.5), the first level of malnutrition were 17.9% (infant 2.0%, toddler 22.3%) and 23.6% (infants 3.6%, toddler 28.8%), the second level of malnutrition were 1.2% (infant 0.3%, toddler 1.5%) and 1.1% (infant 0%, toddler 1.4%), the third level of malnutrition were 0.4%(infant 0.3%, toddler 0.5%) and 0.2%(infant 0%, toddler 0.3%), the fourth level of malnutrition were 0.1%(infant 0%, toddler 0.1%) and 0% respectively. (3) by body weight in relation to height, the percentages for male and female of children attained standard growth were 87.9% (infant 77.6%, toddler 87.9%) and 78.2% (infant 77.4%, toddler 78.2%), the first level of malnutrition were 12.2% (infant 18.4%, toddler 10.6%) and 18.2% (infant 17.9%, toddler 18.3%), the second level of malnutrition were 1.9%(infant 3.3%, toddler 1.5%) and 3.0%(infant 3.3%, toddler 2.9%), the third level of malnutrition were 0.1%(infant 0%. toddler 0.1%) and 0.5% (infant 0%, toddler 0.6%), the fourth level of malnutrition were 0.1%(infant 0.7%, toddler 0%) and 0.3% (infant 1.5%, toddler 0%) respectively. b) When the nutritional status of each child according to the mother's age at perturition, i. e., young aged mother (up to 30 years old), middle aged mother (31 to 40 years old) and old aged mother (41 years or above) was classified (1) by body weight, among infants and toddlers, at each year of age, with increasing the mother's age, there was an increase in percentage of subjects underweight. This tendency of increasing percentage of underweight was more significant in the infant period than the toddler period. (2) by height value, no significant differences between each mother's age group were found. c) When the nutritional status of each child according to the birth rank, i. e., lower birth rank (first to third) and higher birth rank (fourth or above) was classified (1) by weight value, children of higher birth rank were slightly more often underweight than those of lower birth rank, but not significant. (2) by height value, no differences were found between children of lower and higher birth rank. 2) Gomez Classification: When the nutritional status of each child was classified a) by body weight value, the percentages for male and female of children. attained standard growth were 53.1% (infant 82.6%, toddler 44.9%) and 39.2% (infant 73.4%, toddler 30.1%), the first degree of malnutrition were 39.4% (infant 14.7%, toddler 46.2%) and 47.1% (infant 21.9%, toddler 53.8%), the second degree of malnutrition were 7.3%(infant 2.3%, toddler 8.6%) and 12.9% (infant 4.0%, toddler 15.2%). and the third degree of malnutrition were 0.2%. (infant 0.3%, toddler 0.2%) and 0.8% (infant 0.7%, toddler 0.9%) respectively. b) by height value, the percentages for male and female of children attained standard growth were 80.8% (infant 97.0%, toddler 76.3%) and 73.8%(infant 95.6%, toddler 68.0%), the first degree of malnutrition were 18.5% (infant 2.7%, toddler 22.9%) and 24.6% (infant 4.4%, toddler 30.0%), the second degree of malnutrition were 0.6%(infant 0.3%, toddler 0.7%) and 0.5% (infant 0.1%, toddler 0.7%), and the third degree of malnutrition were 0.1%(infant 0%, toddler 0.1%) and 1.1% (infant 0%, toddler 1.3%) respectively. C. Results of clinical laboratory examination: 1) Red blood cells: The ranges of mean red blood cell counts for male and female were $3,538,000/mm^3\;to\;4,403,000/mm^3\;and\;3,576,000/mm^3\;to\;4,483,000/mm^3$ respectively. The lowest red cell counts were seen at the age of 0-3 months for male and 1-2 months for female. 2) Haematocrit value : The ranges of haematocrit value of male and female were 35.1% to 38.8% and 34.7% to 38.8% respectively. The lowest haematocrit values were seen at the age of 2-3 months for male and 1-2, months for female. 3) The prevalence rates of intestinal parasites for male and female children with Ascaris lumbricoides were 34.1% (infant 18.8%, toddler 38.1%) and 36.0%(infant 18.4%, toddler 40.7%), with Trichocephalus trichiuris were 6.8% (infant 2.9%, toddler 7.9%) and 9.0% (infant 3.0%, toddler 10.6%), with Hookworm were 0.3% (infant 0.5%, toddler 0.2%) and 0.3% (infant 0.5%, toddler 0.3%), with Clonorchis sinensis were 0.4%(infant 0%, toddler 0.5%) and 0.1%(infant 0%, toddler 0.1%) respectively.

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전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현 (Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease)

  • 김은경;이석;변영태;이혁재;이택진
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • 세계적으로 전파력과 병원성이 높은 신종인플루엔자, 조류독감 등과 같은 전염병이 증가하고 있다. 전염병이란 특정 병원체(pathogen)로 인하여 발생하는 질병으로 감염된 사람으로부터 감수성이 있는 숙주(사람)에게 감염되는 질환을 의미한다. 전염병의 병원체는 세균, 스피로헤타, 리케차, 바이러스, 진균, 기생충 등이 있으며, 호흡기계 질환, 위장관 질환, 간질환, 급성 열성 질환 등을 일으킨다. 전파 방법은 식품이나 식수, 곤충 매개, 호흡에 의한 병원체의 흡입, 다른 사람과의 접촉 등 다양한 경로를 통해 발생한다. 전 세계의 대부분 국가들은 전염병의 전파를 예측하고 대비하기 위해서 수학적 모델을 사용하고 있다. 하지만 과거와 달리 현대 사회는 지상과 지하 교통수단의 발달로 전염병의 전파 속도가 매우 복잡하고 빨라졌기 때문에 우리는 이를 예방하기 위한 대책 마련의 시간이 부족하다. 그러므로 전염병의 확산을 막기 위해서는 전염병의 전파 경로를 예측할 수 있는 시스템이 필요하다. 우리는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해서 전염병의 실시간 감시 및 관리를 위한 전염병의 감염 경로 추적 및 예측이 가능한 통합정보 시스템을 구현하였다. 이 논문에서는 전염병의 전파경로 예측에 관한 부분을 다루며, 이 시스템은 기존의 수학적 모델인 Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered (SIR) 모델을 기반으로 하였다. 이 모델의 특징은 교통수단인 버스, 기차, 승용차, 비행기를 포함시킴으로써, 도시내 뿐만 아니라 도시간의 교통수단을 이용한 이동으로 사람간의 접촉을 표현할 수 있다. 그리고 한국의 지리적 특성에 맞도록 실제 자료를 수정하였기 때문에 한국의 현실을 잘 반영할 수 있다. 또한 백신은 시간에 따라서 투여 지역과 양을 조절할 수 있기 때문에 사용자가 시뮬레이션을 통해서 어느 시점에서 어느 지역에 우선적으로 투여할지 백신을 컨트롤할 수 있다. 시뮬레이션은 몇가지 가정과 시나리오를 기반으로 한다. 그리고 통계청의 자료를 이용해서 인구 이동이 많은 주요 5개 도시인 서울, 인천국제공항, 강릉, 평창, 원주를 선정했다. 상기 도시들은 네트워크로 연결되어있으며 4가지의 교통수단들만 이용하여 전파된다고 가정하였다. 교통량은 국가통계포털에서 일일 교통량 자료를 입수하였으며, 각도시의 인구수는 통계청에서 통계자료를 입수하였다. 그리고 질병관리본부에서는 신종인플루엔자 A의 자료를 입수하였으며, 항공포털시스템에서는 항공 통계자료를 입수하였다. 이처럼 일일 교통량, 인구 통계, 신종인플루엔자 A 그리고 항공 통계자료는 한국의 지리적 특성에 맞도록 수정하여 현실에 가까운 가정과 시나리오를 바탕으로 하였다. 시뮬레이션은 신종인플루엔자 A가 인천공항에 발생하였을 때, 백신이 투여되지 않은 경우, 서울과 평창에 각각 백신이 투여된 경우의 3가지 시나리오에 대해서, 감염자가 피크인 날짜와 I (infectious)의 비율을 비교하였다. 그 결과 백신이 투여되지 않은 경우, 감염자가 피크인 날짜는 교통량이 가장 많은 서울에서 37일로 가장 빠르고, 교통량이 가장 적은 평창에서 43일로 가장 느렸다. I의 비율은 서울에서 가장 높았고, 평창에서 가장 낮았다. 서울에 백신이 투여된 경우, 감염자가 피크인 날짜는 서울이 37일로 가장 빨랐으며, 평창은 43일로 가장 느렸다. 그리고 I의 비율은 강릉에서 가장 높으며, 평창에서 가장 낮았다. 평창에 백신을 투여한 경우, 감염자가 피크인 날짜는 37일로 서울이 가장 빠르고 평창은 43일로 가장 느렸다. I의 비율은 강릉에서 가장 높았고, 평창에서는 가장 낮았다. 이 결과로부터 신종인플루엔자 A가 발생하면 각 도시는 교통량에 의해 영향을 받아 확산된다는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서 전염병 발생시 전파 경로는 각 도시의 교통량에 따라서 달라지므로, 교통량의 분석을 통해서 전염병의 전파 경로를 추적하고 예측함으로써 전염병에 대한 대책이 가능할 것이다.