• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.6_1
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• pp.1191-1205
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• 2022

Particulate matter(PM) among air pollutants with complex and widespread causes is classified according to particle size. Among them, PM_2.5 is very small in size and can cause diseases in the human respiratory tract or cardiovascular system if inhaled by humans. In order to prepare for these risks, state-centered management and preventable monitoring and forecasting are important. This study tried to predict PM_2.5 in Seoul, where high concentrations of fine dust occur frequently, using two ensemble models, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) using 15 local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) weather-related factors, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and 4 chemical factors as independent variables. Performance evaluation and factor importance evaluation of the two models used for prediction were performed, and seasonal model analysis was also performed. As a result of prediction accuracy, RF showed high prediction accuracy of R² = 0.85 and XGB R² = 0.91, and it was confirmed that XGB was a more suitable model for PM_2.5 prediction than RF. As a result of the seasonal model analysis, it can be said that the prediction performance was good compared to the observed values with high concentrations in spring. In this study, PM_2.5 of Seoul was predicted using various factors, and an ensemble-based PM_2.5 prediction model showing good performance was constructed.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.251-259
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• 2024

Fine particulate matter, especially PM2.5 with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, poses significant health and economic risks. This study focuses on the Seoul region of South Korea, aiming to analyze PM2.5 data and trends from 2017 to 2022 and develop a mid-term prediction model for PM2.5 concentrations. Utilizing collected and produced air quality and weather data, reanalysis data, and numerical model prediction data, this research proposes an ensemble evaluation method capable of adapting to trend changes. The ensemble method proposed in this study demonstrated superior performance in predicting PM2.5 concentrations, outperforming existing models by an average F1 Score of approximately 42.16% in 2019, 58.92% in 2021, and 34.79% in 2022 for future 3 to 6-day predictions. The model maintains performance under changing environmental conditions, offering stable predictions and presenting a mid-term prediction model that extends beyond the capabilities of existing deep learning-based short-term PM2.5 forecasts.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.6_2
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• pp.1881-1890
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• 2021

Particulate matter (PM) affects the human, ecosystems, and weather. Motorized vehicles and combustion generate fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), which can contain toxic substances and, therefore, requires systematic management. Consequently, it is important to monitor and predict PM_2.5 concentrations, especially in large cities with dense populations and infrastructures. This study aimed to predict PM_2.5 concentrations in large cities using meteorological and chemical variables as well as satellite-based aerosol optical depth. For PM_2.5 concentrations prediction, a random forest (RF) model showing excellent performance in PM concentrations prediction among machine learning models was selected. Based on the performance indicators R², RMSE, MAE, and MAPE with training accuracies of 0.97, 3.09, 2.18, and 13.31 and testing accuracies of 0.82, 6.03, 4.36, and 25.79 for R², RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, respectively. The variables used in this study showed high correlation to PM_2.5 concentrations. Therefore, we conclude that these variables can be used in a random forest model to generate reliable PM_2.5 concentrations predictions, which can then be used to assess the vulnerability of schools to PM_2.5.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2022

In this paper, we develop a new statistical model to forecast the PM_2.5 level in Seoul, South Korea. The proposed model is based on the extreme quantile regression model with lasso penalty. Various meteorological variables and air pollution variables are considered as predictors in the regression model, and the lasso quantile regression performs variable selection and solves the multicollinearity problem. The final prediction model is obtained by combining various extreme lasso quantile regression estimators and we construct a binary classifier based on the model. Prediction performance is evaluated through the statistical measures of the performance of a binary classification test. We observe that the proposed method works better compared to the other classification methods, and predicts 'very bad' cases of the PM_2.5 level well.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.38-41
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• 2019

The aim of this study was to estimate of prediction of whelping day and to confirm the accuracy of prediction of whelping day in small pet bitches. The gestation length from the each based on days was $66.64{\pm}2.32days$ ($Mean{\pm}S.D$) when the Cornification index (CI) was over 90% after the first vaginal discharge, $64.65{\pm}2.87days$ from the day of CI peak, $63.46{\pm}1.63days$ from the day of ovulation by progesterone concentrations, and $57.67{\pm}2.43days$ from the first day of cytologic diestrus, respectively. The whelping day was estimated 66 days when the CI was over 90% after the first vaginal discharge, 64 days from the day of CI peak, 63 days from the day of ovulation by progesterone concentrations, and 57 days from the first day of cytologic diestrus, respectively. The accuracy of the prediction of whelping day was 90.0% with a precision of ${\pm}2days$ when the CI was over 90% after the first vaginal discharge, 77.5% from the day of CI peak, 86.2% from the day of ovulation by progesterone concentrations, and 81.2% from the first day of cytologic diestrus, respectively. These results indicated that the prediction of parturition day by vaginal cytology was useful method for management of reproduction and parturition in small pet bitches.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.31 no.12
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• pp.999-1012
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• 2022

To investigate the reason for the spatial difference in PM_2.5 (Particulate Matter, < 2.5 ㎛) concentration despite a similar synoptic pattern, a synoptic analysis was performed. The data used for this study were the daily average PM_2.5 concentration and meteorological data observed from 2016 to 2020 in Busan and Seoul metropolitan areas. Synoptic pressure patterns associated with high PM_2.5 concentration episodes (greater than 35 ㎍/m³) were analyzed using K-means cluster analysis, based on the 900 hPa geopotential height of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL (Final analysis) data. The analysis identified three sub-groups related to high concentrations occurring only in Busan and Seoul metropolitan areas. Although the synoptic patterns of high PM_2.5 concentration episodes that occur independently in Busan and Seoul metropolitan areas were similar, there was a difference in the intensity of pressure gradient and its direction, which tends to be an important factor determining the movement time of pollutants. The spatial difference in PM_2.5 concentration in the Korean Peninsula is due to the difference and direction of the atmospheric pressure gradient that develops from southwest to northeast direction.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.29
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• pp.12.1-12.8
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• 2014

Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to $10{\mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared ($R^2$) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and $66.0{\mu}g/m^3$ (standard deviation=2.40 and $9.51{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively). Cross-validated $R^2$ values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had $R^2$ values of zero. The national model produced a higher cross-validated $R^2$ (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate $PM_{10}$ source characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.6_3
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• pp.1653-1667
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• 2020

In this study, we coupled a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model to the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS), a current operational numerical weather prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. We investigated the characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) distributions in a building-congested district. To analyze the effects of road emission on the PM2.5 concentrations, we calculated road emissions based on the monthly, daily, and hourly emission factors and the total amount of PM2.5 emissions established from the Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) of the Ministry of Environment. We validated the simulated PM2.5 concentrations against those measured at the PKNU-AQ Sensor stations. In the cases of no road emission, the LDAPS-CFD model underestimated the PM2.5 concentrations measured at the PKNU-AQ Sensor stations. The LDAPS-CFD model improved the PM2.5 concentration predictions by considering road emission. At 07 and 19 LST on 22 June 2020, the southerly wind was dominant at the target area. The PM2.5 distribution at 07 LST were similar to that at 19 LST. The simulated PM2.5 concentrations were significantly affected by the road emissions at the roadside but not significantly at the building roof. In the road-emission case, the PM2.5 concentration was high at the north (wind speeds were weak) and west roads (a long street canyon). The PM2.5 concentration was low in the east road where the building density was relatively low.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.321-335
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• 2021

Particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5 with a diameter less than 10 and 2.5 ㎛, respectively) can be absorbed by the human body and adversely affect human health. Although most of the PM monitoring are based on ground-based observations, they are limited to point-based measurement sites, which leads to uncertainty in PM estimation for regions without observation sites. It is possible to overcome their spatial limitation by using satellite data. In this study, we developed machine learning-based retrieval algorithm for ground-level PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations using aerosol parameters from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite and various meteorological parameters from a numerical weather prediction model during January to December of 2019. Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) were used to estimate PM concentrations. The model performances were examined for two types of feature sets-all input parameters (Feature set 1) and a subset of input parameters without meteorological and land-cover parameters (Feature set 2). Both models showed higher accuracy (about 10 % higher in R2) by using the Feature set 1 than the Feature set 2. The GBRT model using Feature set 1 was chosen as the final model for further analysis(PM10: R2 = 0.82, nRMSE = 34.9 %, PM2.5: R2 = 0.75, nRMSE = 35.6 %). The spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual-averaged PM concentrations was similar with in-situ observations, except for the northeastern part of China with bright surface reflectance. Their spatial distribution and seasonal changes were well matched with in-situ measurements.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.677-688
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• 2003

The purpose of this study was to predict occurrence of earthquakes in Korea by measuring the concentration of radon radioactivity in the air and in the underground water. Two monitoring systems of radon concentration detection in the air were installed in Seoul, East Coast area, whereas of radon concentration in the underground water in Kyungju area during December, 1999 to June, 2001. The distribution of radon concentration in the air in Seoul is as follows Winter(10.10 $\pm$ 2.81 Bq/㎥), autumn(8.41 $\pm$ 1.35 Bq/㎥), summer(5.83 $\pm$ 0.05 Bq/㎥) and spring (5.34 $\pm$ 0.44 Bq/㎥), whereas the distribution of radon in the air in the East Coast area showed some difference as follows : autumn (14.08 $\pm$ 5.75 Bq/㎥), Summer (12.04 $\pm$ 0.53 Bq/㎥), Winter (12.02 $\pm$ 1.40 Bq/㎥) and spring (8.93 $\pm$ 0.91 Bq/㎥). In the meanwhile, the distribution of radon in the water is as follows : spring (123.59 $\pm$ 16.36count/10min), Winter (93.95 $\pm$ 79.69counter/10min), autumn (68.96 $\pm$ 37.53counter/10min) and spring (34.45 $\pm$ 9.69counter/10min). The daily range of the density of radon concentration in Seoul and East Coast area was between 5.51 Bq/㎥ - 9.44 Bq/㎥, 7.15 Bq/㎥ - 15.27 Bq/㎥, respectively. Correlation of the distributions of radon concentrations in the air and in underground water with earthquake showed considerable variations of radon concentration before the occurrence of the earthquake. The results suggested that radon radioactivity seemed to be helpful for the prediction of the occurrence of earthquake.