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Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

Packing effects on the intracavitary radiation Therapy 3-Dimension plan of the uterine cervix cancer (자궁경부암 강내조사 3차원 치료계획 시 Packing의 유용성 분석)

  • Si, Chang-Keun;Jo, Jung-Kun;Lee, Du-Hyun;Kim, Sun-Yeung;Kim, Tae-Yoon
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : An effect of a packing to uterine treatment of a cervical cancer using a dose-volume histogram for a point dose and a volume dose of the bladder and the rectum was analyzed by establishing a three-dimensional treatment plan using a CT image. Materials and methods : Reference points of the bladder and the rectum were marked, respectively at a treatment plan device (plato brachytherapy V14.2.4) by photographing CT(marconi, USA) when the packing was used and removed under the same condition and a treatment plan was performed to Apoint depending on ICRU38. However, in case of the rectum, a maximum point was looked up and compared with the above point because the point presented from the ICRU is not proper as a representative value of a rectum point dose. Further, the volume dose depending on volume of $50\%,\;80\%,\;and\;100\%$ point doses of the rectum and the bladder was measured. The measured values were used to analyze the effect of the packing through a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test (a SAS statistical analysis process program). Result : The reference points at the bladder and rectum doses when the packing was removed were $116.94\;35.42\%$ and $117.59\;21.08\%$, respectively. The points when the packing was used were $107.08\;38.12\%$ and $95.19\;21.32\%$, respectively. After the packing was used, the reference points at the bladder and the rectum were decreased by $9.86\%$ and $22.4\%$, respectively. When the packing was removed, the maximum points at the bladder and the rectum were $164.51\;50.89\%,\;128.81\;33.05\%$, respectively. When the packing was used, the maximum points at the bladder and the rectum were $142.31\;44.79,\;110.08\;37.03\%$, respectively. After the packing was used, the maximum points at the bladder and the rectum were decreased by $22.2\%$ and $18.73\%$, respectively. When the packing was removed, the bladder volume at $50\%,\;80\%,\;and\;100\%$ point doses of the rectum and the bladder were $48.62{\pm}18.09\%,\;16.12{\pm}11.15\%,\;and\;7.51{\pm}6.63\%$, respectively and its rectum volume were $23.41{\pm}14.44\%,\;6.27{\pm}4.28\%,\;2.79{\pm}2.27\%$, respectively. When the packing was used, the bladder volume at $50\%,\;80\%,\;and\;100\%$ point doses of the rectum and the bladder were $40.33{\pm}16.72,\;11.63{\pm}8.72,\;and\;4.87{\pm}4.75\%$, respectively and its rectum volume were $18.96{\pm}8.37\%,\;4.75{\pm}2.58\%,\;and\;1.58{\pm}1.06\%$, respectively. After the packing was used, the bladder volume at $50\%,\;80\%,\;and\;100\%$ point doses of the rectum and the bladder were decreased by $8.29\%,\;4.49\%,\;and\;2.64\%$, respectively and its bladder volume were decreased by $4.45\%,\;1.52\%,\;and\;1.21\%$, respectively. Conclusion : Values at Reference point doses of the bladder and the rectum recommended from the ICRU 38 were 0.0781 and 0.0781, respectively and values of their maximum point doses were 0.0156 and 0.0156, respectively, as a result of which an effect of the packing using at the uterine intracavitary treatment of an uterine cervical cancer through the three-dimensional treatment plan used CT were measured. That is, the values at reference point doses and the values at maximum point doses show similar difference. However, P value was 0.15 at over $50\%,\;80\%,\;and\;100\%$ volume doses and the value shows no similar difference. In other words, the effect of the packing looks like having a difference at the point dose, but actually shows no difference at the volume dose. The reason is that the volume of the bladder and the rectum are wide but the volume of the packing is only a portion. Therefore, the effect of decreasing the point dose was not great. Further, the farer the distance is, the more weak the intensity of radiation is because the intensity of radiation is proportional to inverse square of a distance. Therefore, the effort to minimize an obstacle of the bladder and the rectum by using the packing should be made.

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Four-year change and tracking of serum lipids in Korean adolescents (강화지역 청소년의 4년간 혈청 지질의 변화와 지속성)

  • Lee, Kang-Hee;Suh, Il;Jee, Sun-Ha;Nam, Chung-Mo;Kim, Sung-Soon;Shim, Won-Heum;Ha, Jong-Won;Kim, Suk-Il;Kang, Hyung-Gon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.1 s.56
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 1997
  • It has been known that there is a tracking phenomenon in the level of serum lipids. However, no study has been performed to examine the change and tracking of serum lipids in Korean adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine the changes of serum lipids in Korean adolescents from 12 to 16 years of age, and to examine whether or not there is a tracking phenomenon in serum lipids level during the period. In 1992 serum lipids(total cholesterol(TC), triglyceride(TG), LDL cholesterol(LDL-C), HDL cholesterol(HDL-C)) were measured in 318 males, 365 females who were 12 years of age in Kangwha county, Korea. These participants have been followed up to 1996 and serum lipids level were examined in 1994 and 1996. Among the participants 162 males and 147 females completed all three examinations in fasting state. To examine the effect of eliminating adolescents with incomplete data, we compared serum lipids, blood pressure and anthropometric measures at baseline between adolescents with complete follow-up and adolescents who were withdrawn. To examine the change of serum lipids we compared mean values of serum lipids according to age in males and females. Repeated analysis of variance was used to test the change according to age. We used three methods to examine the existence of tracking. First, we analyzed the trends in serum lipids over 4-year period within quartile groups formed on the basis of the first-year serum lipids level to see whether or not the relative ranking of the mean serum lipids among the quartile groups remained in the same group for 4-year period. Second, we quantified the degree of tracking by calculating Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between every tests. Third, the persistence extreme quartile method was used. This method divides the population into quartile groups according to the initial level of blood lipids and then calculates the percent of the subjects who stayed in the same group at follow-up measurement. The decreases in levels were noted during 4 years for TC, LDL-C, primarily for boys. The level of HDL-C decreased between baseline and first follow-up for both sexes. Tracking, as measured by both correlation coefficients and persistence extreme quartiles, was evident for all of the lipids. The correlation coefficients of TC between baseline and 4 years later in boys and girls were 0.55 and 0.68, respectively. And the corresponding values for HDL-C were 0.58 and 0.69. More than 50% of adolescents who belonged to the highest quartile group in TC, HDL-C and LDL-C at the baseline were remained at the same group at the examination performed 2 years later for both sexes. The probabilities of remaining at the same group were more than 35% when examined 4 years later. The tracking phenomenon of TG was less evident compared with the other lipids. Percents of girls who stayed at the same group 2 years later and 4 years later were 42.9% and 25.7%, respectively. It was evident that serum lipid levels tracked in Korean adolescents. Researches with longer follow-up would be needed in the future to investigate the long-term change of lipids from adolescents to adults.

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