• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.397-414
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• 2016

There will be coming soon a sequence of the so-called election season in Korea. That is the 20th session of general elections and the 19th presidential election which are taking place one after another. When we talk about presidential candidate, we may realize that the choice were relied upon candidate's facial appearance and speech, voice, dress, and so on. One poll showed that capacity and policy were ranked high and figure and image were ranked next by asking "what is the most important factor when you vote for the president?" This study looked into the candidate's face of a newly elected public office through the election voting. I studied how the factors of sex and beauty may affect on the election results. I analyse survey of candidate's photo on the election leaflets. Analyzed result said that candidate's competency and trust have strong relations in the voting choice rather than beauty even if it is statistically significant. I also find that both beauty and competency are positively interrelated.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.116-125
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• 2022

The purpose of this case study is to investigate an empirical analysis on how public opinion spreads, when is the effect to occur, and how much effective. Data from the 19th presidential election period, specifically supporting rates for a candidate, Moon Jae-in were used. Results indicated that a supporting rate of increase were not linear and the points where the rate of increase is enhancing was 27-8%. It was 1.4 times higher than the previous period. Results providing this research is not appropriate for generalizability due to a characteristic of a case study, but this study has a value in trying to statistically analyze the accurate figures for how much 'majority opinion' is.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.31-70
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• 2017

On December 9, 2016, the decision of impeachment of the National Assembly decided against Park Geun-hye came from the nomination conflicts of the 20th general election between Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group at the ruling Saenuri Party. Therefore, this study focused on the nomination conflicts of the ruling party and the opposition party on the election results in the 20th general election on the public sentiment of the people. The nomination conflicts of the ruling and opposite parties were a prelude to the victory of the 19th presidential election, and it was serious faction conflict. Firstly, the study examined how the nomination conflicts of each party were centered on President Park Geun-hye as well as the leaders of each party and the chairman of the nomination committee. Secondly, the study examined what kind of changes would be made to the composition of presidential candidates for each party at the time of the presidential election. Thirdly, the study examined the opposition parties' separation between the Minjoo Party of Korea and the People's Party of Korea before and after the election and the issue of initiative in Honam. As a result of the analysis, the 20th general election failed to obtain a majority seat of the ruling Saenuri Party, and the opposition won and formed the majority. The reason why President Park and Saenuri were greatly defeated in the contest even in the situation where the opposition parties were divided is the root cause in the attitude of Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group who assumed their victory. Therefore, it is highly possible to render its responsibility to President Park Geun-hye, who has become a 'past power', and it has opened up the possibility that the emergence of future power by opposition parties. In the case of the opposition party, it is clear that the battle for Honam, which is a traditional opposition party's support group, is a matter of good fortune of the two major powers, Moon Jae In and Ahn Cheol Soo.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.199-219
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• 2018

With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.943-955
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• 2017

We investigate and estimate the causal effect of the survey methods in telephone surveys for the 19th presidential election. For this causal study, we draw a causal graph that represents the causal relationship between variables. Then we decide which variables should be included in the model and which variables should not be. We explain why the research agency is a should-be variable and the response rate is a shouldnot-be variable. The effect of ARS can not be estimated due to data limitations. We have found that there is no significant difference in the effect of the proportion of cell phone survey if it is less than about 90 percent. But the support rate for Moon Jae-in gets higher if the survey is performed only by cell phones.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.13-24
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• 2014

This study is the first model to apply the concept of media engagement to a political campaign by which the voters' mind toward the supporting political candidates, are read. Thus it provides the theoretical and practical implications to the political campaign, and eventually contributes to the development of democracy. For these objectives, the total of 729 people who have the right to vote were telephone surveyed using the peoplemeter, CATI program in the 18th Presidential Election (12 areas including Seoul) of Dec. 19th 2012, and Re and By-election of April 24th 2013. Research question is to examine how the 5 attributes of the media engagement (interest, immersion, relevance, satisfaction and participation), play a role as the moderating variables in cross-correlation, socio-economic status and media properties. The result shows that of the five properties of media engagement, the relevant factor is the important parameter of mediating variable to the causal relationship. The media usage (TV, SNS, print media), socio-economic status (gender, age, income, marriage and area), involvement and the Presidential Election, and Re and By-election are also effective in the five attributes of media engagement. These results suggest that the a study model can measure the campaign effectiveness. This study will contribute significantly to the development of politics, election, media, advertising, and public relations area as well as to promote interdisciplinary research.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.49-54
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• 2015

This study carried out a survey targeting sample of 609 audience panel voters of 15 regions including Seoul during the campaign period of Korean presidential election on December 19, 2012. It was analyzed that how the attitude to the candidate, the support to the policy and the voters'variables affected the vote-getting in the engagement attributes. The analysis shows that high participation of the engagement attributes does not always mean that the political candidate is satisfactory at the political campaign. The fact that high engagement attribute does not always affect the other attributes is interpreted that engagement attributes do not have correlation at the political campaign. And the candidate should approach the voters more carefully as there are differences among the engagement attributes in the attitude to the candidate and the support to the policy. In the engagement attributes, voters show little difference according to gender, region, income and marriage but show much difference according to age and education level. So it will be a principal index in the future political campaign.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

Even though the importance of reading voters' share of mind increases in political campaign, there is no research which analyzes engagement in perspective of political campaign. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to calculate political engagement index which is qualitative indicator about political campaign's immersion in candidate in perspective of engagement and provide scientific data for political advertisement and publicity strategy. For this purpose, A and B candidates who ran for 18th president in December 19th, 2012 are selected for subjects of the research. The young people whose voter participations are low in this presidential election are selected as subjects for responding questionnaire and are surveyed. This research is qualitative evaluation which tires to supplement a limit of qualitative analysis of content by surpassing quantitative evaluation including advertisement, promotion, public opinion on politics, ratings, etc. Evaluation attribute is designed to distribute 8 PEI into 0~100 score. If PEI is more than 50, then the score indicates immersion above average. If PEI is lower than 50, then the score indicates immersion below average. The model of the research will contribute to development of methodological research of political campaign strategy. Also, in the future, this model can be used as micro-targeting in each political campaign's election strategy.