Economic Analysis of the Ex-Ante Certification System for EV Production Safety

전기자동차 제작안전 사전인증제 경제성 분석

This study verifies the feasibility of introducing an ex-ante safety certification system for electric-vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing through a cost-benefit analysis. Benefits are defined as reductions in recall costs from fewer manufacturing defects and reductions in accident costs from fewer battery-defect incidents, while costs consist of program operation expenses and manufacturers' additional compliance burdens. EV deployment for 2025-2034 is projected under three policy-target attainment scenarios (100%, 83%, 60%), and the battery manufacturing defect rate is derived from 2020-2023 recall data with a downward adjustment for technological progress. The net effect of ex-ante certification is approximated by the average recall-rate gap between self-certification and type-approval regimes; the unit recall cost is estimated from battery price plus labor, converted to a base year and adjusted for declining production costs. Accident probability is proxied by the ratio of high-voltage battery fires to battery recalls, and accident costs are calculated annually from EV own-damage insurance losses, adjusted for falling battery production costs. As a result, recall-cost reduction benefits are estimated at KRW 7.5518 / 6.4398 / 5.0032 trillion across the three scenarios, accident-cost reduction benefits at KRW 22.42 / 19.12 / 14.85 billion, and costs at KRW 21.33 billion for program operation and KRW 45.29 billion for manufacturers, totaling KRW 66.59 billion.