The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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Influence of Weather and Atmospheric Conditions on Public Transportation Ridership: Using Panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model

기상 및 대기환경에 의한 대중교통 이용변화: Panel-SUR 모형을 활용하여

  • Jahun Koo (Dept. of Urban Planning, Hongik University) ;
  • Sujae Kim (Dept. of Urban Design & Planning, Hongik University) ;
  • Hyungkyoo Kim (Dept. of Urban Design & Planning, Hongik University) ;
  • Sangho Choo (Dept. of Urban Design & Planning, Hongik University)
  • 구자헌 (홍익대학교 도시계획과) ;
  • 김수재 (홍익대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 김형규 (홍익대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 추상호 (홍익대학교 도시공학과)
  • Received : 2024.09.24
  • Accepted : 2024.10.15
  • Published : 2024.10.31
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Abstract

Public transportation require access trips to the stops, which are significantly affected by external environmental factors. This study examined the changes in public transportation usage based on these characteristics in relation to external environments. The analysis focuses on the 25 administrative districts of Seoul, using data on public transportation usage, weather, and air quality from 2023. The analysis used a Panel-SUR model, showing that deteriorating weather and air quality reduce public transportation usage. The impact of the variables was greater on weekends than on weekdays, likely because non-essential trips, which mainly occur on weekends, can be influenced by external environmental conditions when choosing whether to travel. The air quality-related variables have a smaller impact on subways than buses, likely because bus stops are more exposed to external environments.

대중교통은 정류장까지의 접근 통행이 필수적이며, 이러한 접근 통행은 외부환경에 많은 영향을 받는다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 특성을 고려하여 외부환경에 따른 대중교통 이용변화를 분석하고자 한다. 서울특별시의 25개 행정구를 분석 대상으로 설정하였으며, 2023년 대중교통 이용실적과 기상 및 대기환경 관련 데이터를 바탕으로 분석을 수행하였다. Panel-SUR 모형을 활용하여 분석을 진행하였으며, 기상 및 대기환경 악화는 대중교통 이용을 감소시키는 것으로 도출되었다. 변수의 영향력은 주중에 비해 주말에 더 크게 나타났는데, 이는 주말에 주로 발생하는 비필수 목적통행은 외부환경에 의해 통행 발생 여부를 선택할 수 있기 때문으로 판단된다. 대기환경 관련 변수는 버스에 비해 지하철에서 영향력이 작은 것으로 도출되었는데, 이는 버스 정류장이 외부환경에 더욱 노출되어있기 때문으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 한국ITS학회 2022년도 국제학술대회(2022.06)에서 발표된 내용을 수정·보완하여 작성하였습니다.

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