Journal of Distribution Science (유통과학연구)

Korea Distribution Science Association (한국유통과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on the Forecast of Sales of Rechargeable Card-Type Onnuri Gift Certificates for the Recovery of Business District

  • Tae-Chang RYU (College of Health and Welfare, Major in Urban Planning., Woosong University) ;
  • Sang-Mok KIM (Department of Smart City & Real Estate, Major in Real Estate, Kyunghee University) ;
  • Yong-Suk SON (Small Business Assistance, Gyeonggi-Do Provincial Government)
  • Received : 2024.01.29
  • Accepted : 2024.11.05
  • Published : 2024.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Purpose: As the sales performance of rechargeable card-type Onnuri gift certificates, first implemented in 2023, fails to meet the government's target value, it aims to use it as essential data primary data necessary to achieve the sales target of Onnuri gift certificates set by the government based on scientific predictionsin 2024. Research design, data, and methodology: To measure the sales forecast of Onnuri gift certificates in the first quarter of 2024 using time series data, we tried to predict through scientific methods and present the result of making decisionsthrough simple expansion, one of the operationsresearch methods. Results: The salesforecast forJanuary 2024 is expected to increase by 1.7% from the previous month, with a sales forecast of 235 billion won. From February, it was expected to show a decline and sell 211.5 billion won. It was predicted that 190.4 billion won would be sold in March and 171.3 billion won in April. Conclusion: Through short-term predictions, we presented meaningful prediction results for preparing strategies for the first quarter of 2024. The budget for selling Onnuri gift certificates in the first quarter of 2024 was forecast to be KRW 808.2 billion, and the average sales performance was predicted to be 202.1 billion.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This study was conducted with support from Woosong University

References

  1. Ahn, Y. G. (2019). A Study on the Prediction of the World Seaborne Trade Volume through the Exponential Smoothing Method and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Korea Trade Review, 44(22), 55-62.
  2. Bang, S.C., & Park, K. S. (2022). A Study on the Forecasting Supply and Demand of Trade Experts using Exponential Smoothing Method and ARIMA Model, The International Commerce & Law Review , 93, 177-196.
  3. Cho, B. H., & Ryu, T.C. (2019). A Study on Measures to Active the Commercial Sphere in the Old Downtown through IPA Analysis: Targeting Daegu Seomun Market, Journal of Digital Contents Society, 20(4), 851-857.
  4. Cleveland, R. B., & Cleveland W. S., & McRae, J. E., & Terpenning. I. (1990). A seasonal-trend decomposition, Journal of official statistics, 6(1), 3-73.
  5. Hwang, S. H., & Kim, J. J. (2012). A Study on the Revitalization Model of Traditional Markets in Korea through typifying their decline factors, Journal of The Residential Environment Institute of Korea, 10(3), 313-326.
  6. Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy, International journal of forecasting, 22(4), 679-688.
  7. Kim, H. K., Kim, H. J., & Chun, B. G. (2023). A Study on the Effects of Onnuri Gift Vouchers on Consumption Promotion, Journal of Korean Economic Studies, 41(3), 29-54.
  8. Kim, T. H., CHOI, S. D.(2021). Comparison of Forecast Models for Purple Laver Producer Price, Jeollanam-do Exponential Smoothing Technique and ARIMA Model, The Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education, 33(4), 831~843.
  9. Lim, B. I., & Yoon, J. H. (2015). The Analysis on the Revitalization of Traditional Markets by Onnuri Gift Vouchers, The Korea Association Small Business Studies, 37(4), 105-121.
  10. Lee, C. S., Kim, S. H., & Lim, Y. K. (2018). The Effect of Onnuri Gift Certificate and Credit Card Use on the Performances of Small Business in Traditional Market, Journal of Distribution and Management Research, 21(2), 77-86.
  11. Lee, D.H., & Lee, Y.S. (2013). A Study on the Effect of Governments traditional Retail and Periodic Market Policies on Revitalization of Market : Focused on Traditional Retail and Periodic Markets in the Urban Areas of Daegu and Daejeon, Journal of Industrial Economics and Business, 26(5), 2,337-2,360.
  12. Lee,J. H., Han, H. R., & Yoon, S. H. (2020). Air passenger demand forecasting for the Incheon airport using time series models, Journal of Digital Convergence, 18(12), 87-95.
  13. Lim, S. H. (2023). A Study on Ways to Revitalize Traditional Markets in the Era of the 4th Industrial Revolution, Industry Promotion Research, 8(2), 61-66.
  14. Park, K. B. (2018). A Study on the Change of Precipitation and Temperature with 24 Season by Moving Average Method, Journal of Environmental Science International, 27(12), 1,227-1,239.
  15. Ryu, T. C., & Choi, B. M. (2012). An empirical study on the initial phase of the Marketing Area Revitalization System to revitalize the old downtown- In the Case Survey targeting local experts and public officials, Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association, 24(5), 105-124.
  16. Song, G. H., & Lee, H. W. (2021). Economic Effect of Local Currency(Local Consumption Coupon): Focusing on the impact on sales of small businesses, Panel For Korean Economic Analysis, 27(3), 1-53.
  17. Yook, H. J., Kim, K. S., & Gim, G. Y. (2023). A Study on the Effects of Attributes, Perceived Ease of Use, and Perceived Usefulness of Mobile Onnuri Gift Certificates in Traditional Markets on Intention to Use, Journal of Distribution and Management Research, 26(2), 105-118.
  18. Yim, E. S. (2007). A forecasting restaurant sales: exponential smoothing models and ARIMA model, Korean Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 16(3), 139-154.