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Comparative Analysis between a Real-Life Explosion Case and A Damage Prediction Program

J도 LPG충전소 가스 누출로 인한 폭발사례와 피해예측 프로그램의 비교 분석

  • Yongho Yang (Dept. of Fire & Disaster Prevention, Woosuk University) ;
  • Soonju Kim (Dept. of Fire & Safety Engineering, Woosuk University) ;
  • Hasung Kong (Fire and Disaster Prevention, Woosuk University)
  • 양용호 (우석대학교 일반대학원 소방방재학과 ) ;
  • 김순주 (우석대학교 일반대학원 소방안전공학과 ) ;
  • 공하성 (우석대학교 소방방재학과 )
  • Received : 2024.08.12
  • Accepted : 2024.09.25
  • Published : 2024.09.30

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the scope of damage impact with a real-life explosion case and a damage prediction program (ALOHA) and suggest measures to reduce risk by comparing and analyzing the results using a Probit model. After applying it to the ALOHA program, the toxicity, overpressure, and radiant heat damage of 5 tons of storage scopes between 66 to 413 meters, and the real-life case also demonstrated that most of the damage took place within 300 meters of the LPG gas station. In the Probit analysis, the damages due to radiant heat were estimated as first-degree burns (13-50%), while structural damage (0-75%) and glass window breakage (94-100%) were expected from overpressure, depending on the storage volume. After comparing the real-life case and the damage prediction program, this study concluded that the ALOHA program could be used as the scope of damage impacts is nearly the same as the actual case; it also concluded that the analysis using the Probit model could reduce risks by applying calculated results and predicting the probability of human casualties and structural damages.

Keywords

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