대한토목학회논문집 (KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research)

  • 제44권3호
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  • Pages.303-314
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  • 2024
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  • 1015-6348(pISSN)
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  • 2799-9629(eISSN)
대한토목학회 (Korean Society of Civil Engeneers)
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감천유역의 일 강수량 모의를 위한 MBLRP 모형의 적용

Application of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model for Daily Precipitation Simulation in Gamcheon Basin

  • 정연지 (경기대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김민기 (경기대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 엄명진 (경기대학교 사회에너지시스템공학과)
  • 투고 : 2023.12.21
  • 심사 : 2024.02.04
  • 발행 : 2024.06.01
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초록

강수 자료는 물 관리 계획, 특히 수공 구조물 설계와 홍수 및 가뭄 연구에 필수적인 요소이다. 하지만 시공간적 제약으로 인해 정확한 데이터를 얻기 어려운 현실이다. 최근 기후 변화로 인한 수문학적 변동성이 증가하면서, 강수량 모의 기법의 중요성이 더욱 강조되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse 모델을 활용하여 일 강수량을 예측하는 데 필요한 매개변수를 적용하였다. 지수 분포, Gamma 분포, 그리고 Weibull 분포를 적용하여, 이 매개변수들이 일 강수량 예측에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 각각의 분포 유형에 따른 일 강수량 예측의 적합성을 평가하였다. 그 결과, MBLRP 모형을 이용한 강수량 모의 시, 지역 및 계절 특성을 고려하여 매개변수를 선정해야 하는 것으로 판단된다.

Precipitation data are an integral part of water management planning, especially the design of hydroelectric structures and the study of floods and droughts. However, it is difficult to obtain accurate data due to space-time constraints. The recent increase in hydrological variability due to climate change has further emphasized the importance of precipitation simulation techniques. Therefore, in this study, the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse model was utilized to apply the parameters necessary to predict daily precipitation. The effect of this parameter on the daily precipitation prediction was analyzed by applying exponential distribution, Gamma distribution, and Weibull distribution to evaluate the suitability of daily precipitation prediction according to each distribution type. As a result, it is judged that parameters should be selected in consideration of regional and seasonal characteristics when simulating precipitation using the MBLRP model.

키워드

과제정보

This work was supported by Kyonggi University's Graduate Research Assistantship 2024 and this work was also supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. NRF-2022R1A2C2004034).

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