Nuclear Engineering and Technology

Korean Nuclear Society (한국원자력학회)
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Estimating North Korea's nuclear capabilities: Insights from a study on tritium production in a 5MWe graphite-moderated reactor

  • Sungmin Yang (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Manseok Lee (Department of Political Science and Sociology, Korea Military Academy) ;
  • Danwoo Ko (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Gyunyoung Heo (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Changwoo Kang (CBR Defense Research Institute) ;
  • Seung Min Woo (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University)
  • Received : 2023.07.05
  • Accepted : 2024.02.13
  • Published : 2024.07.25
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Abstract

This study explores the potential for tritium production in North Korea's 5MWe graphite-moderated reactor, a facility primarily associated with nuclear weapons material production. While existing research on these reactors has largely centered on plutonium, our focus shifts to tritium, a crucial element in boosted fission bombs. Utilizing the MCNP6 code for simulations, the results estimate that North Korea can possibly produce approximately 7-12 g of tritium annually. This translates to the potential production of 1-3 boosted fission bombs each year. By incorporating tritium production into assessments of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, our methodology provides insights into the dynamics of the country's nuclear force, revealing a more diversified and complex composition than previously assumed. The findings significantly aid policymakers, regulatory bodies, and researchers in comprehending potential proliferation risks associated with graphite-moderated reactors and in developing strategies to address the nuclear threat emanating from North Korea.

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Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Nuclear Safety Research Program through the Korean Foundation of Nuclear Safety (KoFONS) using financial resources granted by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) of the Republic of Korea (No. 1905008-0119). This work was also supported by "Promoting of expert for energy industry advancement in the field of radiation technology" of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) of the Republic of Korea (No. 20214000000070).

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