Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning (농촌계획)

Korean Society of Rural Planning (한국농촌계획학회)
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Analysis of Determinants of Farmland Price Using Spatio-temporal Autoregressive Model

시공간자기회귀모형을 이용한 농지가격 결정요인 분석

  • Lee Kyeongok (Dept. of Public Administration, Gyeongsang National University ) ;
  • Yi, Hyangmi (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Yunsik (Dept. of Food and Resource Economics, Gyeongsang National University (Inst. of Agri. & Life Sci.)) ;
  • Kim Taeyoung (Dept. of Food and Resource Economics, Gyeongsang National University (Inst. of Agri. & Life Sci.))
  • 이경옥 (경상국립대학교 행정학과 ) ;
  • 이향미 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원) ;
  • 김윤식 (경상국립대학교 식품자원경제학과 (농업생명과학연구원)) ;
  • 김태영 (경상국립대학교 식품자원경제학과 (농업생명과학연구원))
  • Received : 2024.02.28
  • Accepted : 2024.05.21
  • Published : 2024.05.31
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Abstract

Farmland transaction prices are affected by various factors such as politics, society, and the economy. The purpose of this study is to identify multiple factors that affect the farmland transaction price due to changes in the actual transaction price of farmland by farmland unit from 2016 to 2020. There are several previous studies analyzed the determinants of farmland transaction prices by considering spatial dependency. However, in the case of land transactions where the time and space of the transaction affect simultaneously, if only spatial dependence is considered, there is a limitation in that it cannot reflect spatial dependence that occurs over time. In order to solve these limitations, To address these limitations, this study builds a spatio-temporal autoregressive model that simultaneously considers spatial and temporal dependencies using farmland transactions in Jinju City as an example. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that there was significant spatio-temporal dependence in farmland transactions within the previous 30 days. This means that if the previous farmland transaction was carried out at a high price, it has a spatio-temporal spillover effect that indirectly affects the increase in the price of other nearby farmland transactions. The study also found that various location attributes and socioeconomic attributes have a significant impact on farmland transaction prices. The spatio-temporal autoregressive model of farmland prices constructed in this study can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of farmland prices in the farmland transaction market in the future, and it is expected to be useful in drawing policy implications for stabilizing farmland prices

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 2021년 한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원의 기본연구로 수행된 것임(과제명: 농지시장 변화 모니터링 체계 구축과 농지은행 성과분석)

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