Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회논문집)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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Validating an AI Model for Building Lifespan Prediction Using Big Data

빅데이터 기반 AI 건물수명 예측모델 검증

  • 지석원 (한국항공우주연구원, 데이터사이언스)
  • Received : 2023.06.26
  • Accepted : 2024.05.07
  • Published : 2024.05.30
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Abstract

Accurately estimating a building's lifespan is crucial for assessing its asset value and determining its economic and environmental feasibility, which is key for decision-making in the construction industry. However, because it's nearly impossible to precisely estimate the lifespan of each building due to the wide range of influencing factors, most studies have used uniform lifespans based on the building's primary structural type. To address this limitation, 1,812,700 records were analyzed of buildings constructed and demolished in Korea to predict each building's lifespan with greater accuracy. Based on the previous study, a prediction model was developed using both deep learning and traditional machine learning methods. This study evaluated whether the building lifespan prediction model experienced overfitting based on the data period used to create the model. A performance evaluation was also conducted, comparing models using only key factors to those using a broader set of factors. The results showed that among the machine learning models, the artificial neural network model, a nonlinear approach, maintained high predictive accuracy without overfitting, regardless of the data period used. The model that used all available factors performed better than those based on just a few key factors. This research demonstrates the viability of using big data and AI for building lifespan prediction, providing a more reliable method for estimating building lifespan tailored to each building's unique characteristics. This approach meets a growing societal demand for more accurate building lifespan predictions.

Keywords

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