Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Evaluation of Short-Term Prediction Skill of East Asian Summer Atmospheric Rivers

동아시아 여름철 대기의 강 단기 예측성 검증

  • Hyein Kim (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Yeeun Kwon (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seung-Yoon Back (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jaeyoung Hwang (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seok-Woo Son (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • HyangSuk Park (Meso-scale Meteorological Phenomenon Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korean Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Eun-Jeong Cha (Meso-scale Meteorological Phenomenon Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korean Meteorological Administration)
  • 김혜인 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 권예은 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 백승윤 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 황재영 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 박향숙 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부) ;
  • 차은정 (국립기상과학원 예보연구부)
  • Received : 2024.02.02
  • Accepted : 2024.04.25
  • Published : 2024.05.31
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Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are closely related to local precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. Although several studies have evaluated their predictability, there is a lack of studies on East Asian ARs. This study evaluates the prediction skill of East Asian ARs in the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) for 2020~2022 summer. The spatial distribution of AR frequency in KIM is qualitatively similar to the observation but overestimated. In particular, the model errors greatly increase along the boundary of the western North Pacific subtropical high as the forecast lead time increases. When the prediction skills are quantitatively verified by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and Mean Square Skill Score, the useful prediction skill of daily AR around the Korean Peninsula is found up to 5 days. Such prediction limit is primarily set by the wind field errors with a minor contribution of moisture distribution errors. This result suggests that the improved prediction of atmospheric circulation field can improve the prediction of East Asian summer ARs and the associated precipitation.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「위험기상에 대한 분석·예보의 융합기술 고도화」(KMA2018-00121)와 2023년도 해양수산부 재원으로 해양수산과학기술진흥의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다(20210427, 과학기술기반 해양환경영향평가 기술개발).

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