Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회지)

The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회)
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Study on Factors of Vacant Houses's Occurrence using Spatio-Temporal Model

시공간 종속성을 고려한 빈집발생 요인 추정에 관한 연구

  • You-Hyun KIM (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Donghyun KIM (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 김유현 (부산대학교 공과대학 도시공학과 ) ;
  • 김동현 (부산대학교 공과대학 도시공학과)
  • Received : 2023.03.21
  • Accepted : 2023.04.24
  • Published : 2023.06.30
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Abstract

Recently, urban shrinkage due to low birth rate and aging population and the decline of local cities are causing a new urban problem of empty houses. This study examines the distribution of vacant homes using spatial panel data collected from 2015 to 2019 at local administraitve districts and estimates the factors of vacant house occurrence using a spatial panel model considering spatio-temporal dependency. As a result, the spatio-temporal dependence of vacant houses was identified and it was estimated using spatial panel model not OLS model. Based on the spatial panel model, it was found that the most influential factor in the occurrence of vacant houses was the housing-related factor. This result shows that policy considerations for housing supply are necessary for the management of vacant housing as well as population movement and poor infrastructure.

최근 저출산·고령화에 따른 도시축소 현상과 지방도시의 쇠퇴는 빈집이라는 새로운 도시문제를 낳고 있다. 본 연구는 전국 시·군·구를 대상으로 2015년부터 2019년까지 수집한 공간 패널 데이터를 이용하여 빈집 분포를 살펴보고 시공간적 종속성을 고려한 공간패널모형을 이용하여 빈집발생의 요인을 추정하는 것이 목적이다. 분석 결과 빈집은 시공간적으로 종속성이 있었으며, OLS 모형에 비해 시공간적 종속성을 고려하여 빈집 발생 요인을 추정하는 것이 타당함을 확인하였다. 동적공간패널모형을 이용하여 분석한 결과 빈집발생의 가장 큰 영향요인은 주택관련요인인 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 빈집 발생의 관리를 위해서는 인구이동, 양호하지 못한 인프라 등 뿐만 아니라 주택 공급량에 대한 정책적 고려가 필요함을 시사한다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2020년도 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 지원(NRF-2020S1A3A2A01095064)과 국토교통부의 스마트시티 혁신인재육성사업으로 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다.

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